Are you enjoying this Patriots season so far? We’re two games in and it seems like our Patriots Nation is on fire, raging against itself in an endless cycle of small-picture angst . The hot taeks are rolling in faster than we can even keep up with them. Why haven’t the Patriots signed a quarterback!? The hubris of Bill Belichick! And now he’s going to force Jimmy Garoppolo to play with one arm!!
Yes, the Patriots are driving many people mad this week and it’s quickly feeling like us against the world once again.
And if all that wasn’t enough there’s a glowing puff piece on the front page of the New York Times website this morning about Exponent. You know, the company that told us second hand smoke wasn’t dangerous and that the Patriots balls were deflated .02 PSI below where the Ideal Gas Law said they should be. I’m going to resist going down that rabbit hole since we’re so close to end of Deflategate, but let’s just say there’s no specific mention of the two biggest criticisms of Exponents work — the lack of any timing element and the assumption that referee Walt Anderson was wrong in remembering which gauge he used. Read Florio’s takedown of it if you want more on this. I don’t.
Let’s try to talk about real football. Although if it wasn’t clear before, it sure is now — we’re going to be hearing about Bradoppolo non-stop for the next year-and-a-half, at least. Of course this is an unheard of “problem” in the NFL, having two very good quarterbacks and having to choose between them. It’s a fascinating story but one that I prefer to put on the backburner until the offseason. Meanwhile most of the media will waste the football season wondering “WHAT WILL THEY DO????”.
In a little over a week Tom Brady will be back and the New England Patriots 2016 season will truly begin. It’s nice to know Garoppolo has a lot of promise, but there’s plenty to play out over the next four months before we have to really worry about what will happen in the future.
Here’s the gameplan for a Texans team looking to come into Foxboro to make a statement win. Well, a statement win that would have a big Jacoby Brissett-sized asterisk.
Offensive Gameplan
I really had a hard time the last couple days getting too concerned who the Pats might sign as their backup quarterback this week, because I’ve been far more excited to see what Belichick and McDaniels do with a rookie quarterback with three days to prepare for a very good defense. And if Edelman ends up in there taking some Wildcat snaps, even more exciting.
It’s all money in the bank since we’re sitting at 2-0. Who cares? Apparently a lot of people.
Meanwhile the media rages that TJ Yates won’t be holding a clipboard on the sidelines for the next week or two. Whatever.
As I said in this week’s Posits, the key to the gameplan, just as it was in the second half against the Dolphins will be Martellus Bennett and LeGarrette Blount. That leaves little margin for error against a defense that has a lot of front seven talent. Now if Rob Gronkowski is back, and I’m guessing he isn’t, that certainly helps matters because it allows the Patriots to hide Brissett’s inexperience a bit. They can disguise their intentions with their 12 personnel package and it gives them two monster blocking tight ends to help in the running game.
But Brissett is going to have to make some plays if the Patriots are going to win the game. His progression since the start of training camp has been on an upward trajectory and really, if Edelman doesn’t drop those two passes early last week, there might be even more buzz about Brissett.
The big thing about him (literally) is his size and ability to shake off would-be tacklers, somewhat like another #7, Ben Roethlisberger. That ability to extend plays and move with his feet will be a big aid to him this week. In college, he showed the ability to pick up critical yards when the protection broke down. If he can continue this, he can keep the chains moving.
The Patriots young interior offensive line will have their work cut out for them. Old pal Vince Wilfork is still an early-down force, and the pass rushing front of JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Jadeveon Clowney is fearsome. Third-and-longs will be scary, so they must win on first and second downs by doing much of what they did last week — run for the edges. Using Bennett (and Gronk?) on motion crack blocks to seal the edge should help spring Blount.
Otherwise it’s going to be a collection of screen passes, misdirection and play action to help Brissett. The Texans play a lot of off coverage, that should open up some of the short routes the Pats love to run. Although if I was the Texans DC I’d play press and force Brissett to make longer throws. That’s where things could get dicey.
If you’re a football fan it will be fascinating to see what the Pats do with Brissett. And again, it’s all money in the bank.
Defensive Gameplan
After a second-half stinker last week, this game is on the defense. The Texans have some talent but they haven’t truly clicked for any extended period this season. It’s on the defense this week to keep it close. Though I don’t think much is “team defining” in September, this is as close as it gets for the defense.
They’ve been maligned all week for almost letting a potential blowout get away. They have to show something, because their problems last week were all uncharacteristic. Big plays, sloppy tackling, bad fundamentals. Best players playing terrible. That isn’t the Patriots defense.
Despite the talent on the Texans offense this is still a young group and one that a veteran Patriots defense should be able to challenge. Osweiler is not a running threat, that makes pass rush easier. They’ll have a rookie receiver Will Fuller play significant snaps, along with a rookie returner as well. The Pats need to make them look like rookies and hopefully the Patriots mystique will cause some jitters in these young players.
DeAndre Hopkins is the one guy who can break the game open, and Fuller is a burner in his own right. So we’ll see right away if the Pats can solve their big play problems that haunted them last week. I’d expect the matchups to be Butler-Hopkins, Ryan-Fuller, Coleman-Strong in the slot. Ryan was not in the Pats three safety-two corner package last week but Coleman struggled. I like Ryan’s physicality and savvy against the rookie Fuller.
If Dont’a Hightower can’t go this is a huge Jamie Collins game. Greg Bedard was rightly all over Collins in his weekly appearance on Felger and Mazz, even pointing out questionable effort from Collins on Ryan Tannehill‘s final drive scramble. Collins missed a couple other tackles as well, and was not the force everyone has made him out to be all offseason.
On @FelgerAndMazz, @GregABedard says stop saying #Patriots‘ Jamie Collins is one of best inside LBs in NFL https://t.co/sqNgxkT1Sj
— CSN New England (@CSNNE) September 20, 2016
There’s so much Collins/Hightower debate with both in their final years of their deals, but I think it’s becoming more and more apparent that Collins needs Hightower more than we’d like to admit. We’ll see what Collins brings this week.
Things have lined up well for a bounce back game from the defense. They’re coming off a bad game and know they’ve got a limited rookie quarterback on their side. If they lay an egg and are getting burned deep, it will be time to have serious questions about just how good this defense really can be.
I continue to believe they’re a lot closer to the defense we saw in the first half against the Dolphins than the one we saw in the second. That’s two weeks in a row they’ve been unable to close teams out before it went down to the final play. They’re lucky both those final plays went their way.
We’ll see if they take a step forward this week.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Defense Win Championships: I’m a defense guy and seeing them easily cut apart like warm butter last week was not reassuring. This was supposed to be the year the defense could truly dominate. They’re far too talented to fall apart in both second halves to start the season. So here we are. A quality opponent with a lot of young talent and speed. Our offense is shorthanded. We need you defense. Are you there?
2. Turnovers: I should probably just make this a permanent POE but obviously with a rookie quarterback in his first start it’s so vital. Brissett knows he’s hard to tackle and that he can run, which is good (because he can) and bad (because he might try to take hits and get away when he should go down). There’s a big difference between the two and the NFL is a whole new ball game. But I don’t care how many sacks or incompletions Brissett throws. If he doesn’t throw a pick or cough up a fumble, the Pats will have a chance to win the game.
3. Roll Blount: LeGarrette Blount has looked rejuvenated this year and if that continues the Patriots will be a very, very hard offense to defend. Really this extended work on the running game should really help when Brady comes back. Keeping Blount going is a huge key against the Texans. The problem is that the Texans know this so we’re probably going to see close to 10 Texans defenders at the line of scrimmage on every play.
4. Screaming for Screens: Where was James White last week? He really showed up against the Cardinals then had just 29 total yards against the Dolphins. With Watt et al looking to get after Brissett it’s prime conditions for the screen game. This is what White does best. They’re relatively easy passes to ask Brissett to make. I’d even throw Edelman in there for some Wildcat snaps. Why not? Throw the kitchen sink at the Texans and let them figure it out.
5. WIN: We thought we were getting the Jimmy Garoppolo Patriots for four weeks and now that’s been turned on its head. Let’s face it, things seemed almost too easy last week against the Dolphins early on. Now we get some real adversity with some real questions. But ultimately if the Pats are 2-1 Friday morning it won’t be a huge problem. They’ll then have an extended break to get some key guys back, and then it’s just one game to survive against Rex and the Bills before Brady returns. But to go 3-0? To beat the streaking Texans with a rookie QB and a likely gimmick gameplan? Well that would be Patriots poetry at its finest.
Prediction: Patriots 16, Texans 14
todays match will be high voltage