This is it. The last Brady-less game of the 2016 season (we hope). Yes, there are plenty of questions surrounding who will be under center for the Pats in this one, but ultimately this is a tepid Bills offense that should never ever waltz into Foxboro and pull out a win, even we had good ole’ Tommy Hodson back there taking snaps.
Rex Ryan always makes things interesting and despite just a 4-11 record against the Pats, the average margin of victory in the last six games against Rex is just 4.7 points. Last year the Pats beat Ryan’s Bills by 40-32 (week 2) and 20-13 (week 11). So despite the records, this game will probably be interesting.
What has made them most interesting is Rex’s schemes against Tom Brady. Recently this has involved disguising his blitzers while dropping a majority of players into zone coverage. Often times this has slowed Brady down, but as Jeff Howe points out, Brady has still done as well as anyone (which isn’t saying all that much considering the shitlist that is quarterbacks who faced Rex at least five times):
Brady has completed 60.1 percent of his passes against Ryan’s Jets and Bills for an average of 282 yards per game to go along with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 91.2 passer rating against Ryan’s Jets (2009-14) was the highest among all quarterbacks to face him at least five times.
So now what happens with (probably) Jimmy Garoppolo or (possibly) Jacoby Brissett? The Bills have plenty of defenders who can wreck a gameplan, starting with Kyle Williams. The Patriots will need a sound offensive game from whoever their QB is to keep the Bills at bay.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense finally showed what they’re capable of against the Houston Texans, pitching their first meaningful shutout since 2009. Now they must contain Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy. If the Patriots defense is truly going to live up to their perceived talent level, this is another game they should be gunning for a shutout. Expectations are that high.
Here’s the gameplan for capping off the Brady suspension in style, with a win over our old pal Rexy, (who’s coming off a win btw)…
Pretty telling Rex Ryan stat: Since 2012, his teams are 4-18 after a win.
— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) September 28, 2016
Offensive Gameplan
I was skeptical earlier this week that Jimmy Garoppolo could play with his grade two separated shoulder. I’ve had that injury and it took at least a few weeks before I had any range of motion back. But what do I know, I’m sure not a professional football player with all the treatment (and painkillers) that they have access to. So Jimmy looked comfortable throwing the ball in some practice video we saw, and while I’m sure he’s still dealing with pain and loss of motion, he should probably be the starter.
Garoppolo has just the kind of skillset needed to beat Rex’s defense. If he can correctly diagnose which rushers are coming after him, he should be able to tear the Bills up, hitting his hot receivers as they fill the space behind the oncoming blitzers. But Rex will surely get Jimmy once or twice and then it all comes down to turnovers. Will that injured shoulder be a fumble factor?
The Patriots simply cannot afford to lose the turnover battle to the Bills. That’s the Bills’ thing. Dumb turnovers and bad penalties. If the offense can just play sound like they have, it should be just a matter of time before the Bills implode like they almost always do against us.
Otherwise, the Patriots should once again lean on the AFC Offensive Player of the Month, LeGarrette Blount. If the Pats continue to have success on the ground, it will destroy everything the Bills want to do, which is blitz and disguise coverages.
Keep it simple. Pound the rock. Make the right hot read throws. Profit.
Defensive Gameplan
I got on the defense a little bit this week. Surprising after they pitched a shutout, I know. But that shutout proved they’re capable of what we believed they’d be capable of all offseason. And let’s not forget the last meaningful shutout — 2009 vs. the Titans — came from arguably the worst defense of the Belichick era.
The 2016 D is a veteran squad, returning nearly everyone from 2015, with the entire secondary intact, yet the same inconsistencies have popped up at various times the first two weeks of the season. Against a one-dimensional offense like the Bills, they need to continue the level the established against the Texans. Nothing less than a domination will be acceptable this weekend.
Defending the Bills is simple on paper. Stop LeSean McCoy at running back. Keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket. Take away the deep shots. Without a running game, which will include quarterback keepers, options, and read options, Taylor should never beat the Patriots defense from the pocket. Even more so if they’re without Sammie Watkins, their best receiver, though the Bills are hopeful that he will travel with the team.
The veteran Patriots defense knows how to handle these kind of teams. Their front is disciplined with their rush and can contain mobile quarterbacks. They have two experienced free safeties in McCourty and Harmon who have the range to take away the deep passes. Their defensive tackles are getting better each week at clogging the interior and preventing big rushing lanes. And Jamie Collins (and hopefully Dont’a Hightower) know how to clean up the rest of the garbage.
The defense is entirely capable of shutting down this Bills offense. It may not look statistically pretty, with low sack/pressure numbers, but it should be effective.
There are no excuses. Let’s see another 60-minute domination and then I’ll start to feel like the defense is really making the progress we hoped for and expected.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Keep Taylor In Pocket: This is one of those games where you wish you had Rob Ninkovich, he’s so good at playing disciplined with his edge setting and never letting the quarterback sneak out. If the Pats’ gameplan breaks down it will be on the front seven who let Taylor rush for multiple big gains. He doesn’t want to drop back and throw, and if his read is muddied, he’ll immediately look to tuck and run. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard will be big keys to keeping Taylor in check. The lack of Dont’a Hightower could loom large as well. The Pats don’t have an obvious spy for Taylor without Hightower taking McCoy which would allow Collins to match the quarterback. Things could get interesting if it’s Jonathan Freeny out there trying to chase either one of those threats down.
2. Stop McCoy: One of the biggest fundamentals of Bill Belichick’s defense is stopping the run. With the Patriots front seven, even without Ninkovich and maybe Hightower, they still have a physical collection of players who always seem to shut down the running attack when they truly want/need to. This game should be no different. McCoy is the best player on offense. If he sputters, it’s all downhill for their offense.
3. Keep Blount Rolling: I was skeptical of Blount as a solo lead back this offseason but he has proven me way wrong. Maybe he’s in great shape. Maybe it’s the return of Solder and Scarnecchia or the addition of Thuney and progress of Mason. But the Pats have the best rushing offense in the NFL through three weeks and there’s no reason not to keep riding it. Imagine if it can continue when Brady gets back? Oh boy, that’s something to think about.
4. Clarify Reads: Garoppolo needs to dissect Rex’s muddy fronts to move the ball on passing downs. This should’ve been a huge area of study for him this offseason knowing he’d have to face the Bills. I’m sure Brady was helpful with it as well. But even with Brady, there have been plenty of free rushers who have gotten home against the Pats’ offense. If/when that happens Garoppolo must protect himself and the ball. If Garoppolo knows who’s coming and where to go with the ball, most of the battle is already won. It won’t be easy though.
5. Win: Here we are, looking at a potential 4-0 start without Brady right in the face. I want it so bad. It not only sends a message but gives the Pats a comfortable early lead in the division before things start to get tough. The biggest key might just be playing a simple and clean game, and waiting for the Bills to implode. Who knows, maybe this week Rex’s team plays clean themselves. But really, the Patriots defense could and should singlehandedly win this game. If the Pats lose this one, no matter who’s at quarterback, there will be some serious questions for the first time in the 2016 season.
They won’t. It’s Rex Ryan.
Prediction: Patriots 17, Bills 0
It’ll be interesting to see if the Bills can win on back-to-back weeks against the Cards and the Pats.