https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65Dze6WLS4s
Yup, Tom Brady’s back and the 2016 season can officially start this Sunday in Cleveland. Seriously, for all the time we wasted debating Jimmy Garoppolo’s future and toughness or the gameplan for one-thumbed Jacoby Brissett, it all matters about as much as the preseason did now.
So yes Patriots fans are giddy, the rest of the NFL is worried and the Browns are preparing for worse damage than Florida right now.
But how easily the “Brady’s back” angle has made us all forget that the last two times the Patriots have faced the Browns it hasn’t quite gone as we all thought it would. There was the brutal 34-14 loss in Cleveland in 2010 and then the miraculous comeback by the Patriots in Foxboro in 2013, which also saw Rob Gronkowski’s knee blown out.
The Pats needed an onside kick recovery to escape Cleveland in that one.
The Browns have been anything but an easy out for the Patriots, no matter how the matchup looked on paper going in. But these Browns are far younger and even less talented than what the Patriots dealt with in 2010 and 2013.
Couple that with the Patriots coming off an embarrassing loss and we might just finally get the Browns blowout we’ve been waiting six years for.
Here’s the gameplan to get the season off to a new start under our favorite quarterback.
Offensive Gameplan
Does anyone outside of Gillette Stadium know exactly what the Patriots’ offensive gameplan will be? I think not. We know the Pats have re-committed to the run early in 2016, but will they continue to rush it (130) more than they throw it (122)? Probably not.
If Rob Gronkowski is back up to speed, as he seemed to indicate he could be this week, then we might see what should define the Patriots 2016 offense — The Gronk & Bennett Show (aka G&B, better nickname needed, but I don’t do nicknames until we see them on the field together). What we’ve seen out Bennett so far this season gives us every reason to think G&B should be devastating to defenses. Both guys can block, catch and run. Whatever the defense chooses to take away (or try to take away) the Pats can do the opposite.
Play a light box with multiple defensive backs? Here’s comes Blount running behind G&B. Want to load the box? Well here comes the spread offense, so good luck to the little defensive backs who have to cover G&B. Yes, on paper it seems magical, and now could be the first glimpse of how good G&B are in reality.
As for Brady, I do worry a bit about his timing and pocket feel. I won’t go into the history of it (cough 2008), but when he hasn’t played in the preseason, he’s looked off sometimes early in the season. But of course this is Brady. His hate fire will probably fuel him to step right in and carve the Browns like a turkey.
One interesting matchup to focus on: Danny Shelton vs. David Andrews. Andrews has struggled at times against monster DT’s like Shelton. Nothing can destroy a gameplan faster than a big man causing chaos in the middle. Mason and Thuney will have to help out there too.
Defensive Gameplan
Are you there defense, it’s me Mike D? I did some digging on the defense this week and despite their struggles against the Bills, I’m trying forget that game as quickly as possible. Yes, they were bad. But the Bills were also playing on another level we haven’t seen from them before, and probably won’t see again to be honest. Those kind of games happen. But if that’s really the Patriots defense that we saw last week, we’re in trouble. (Well all their free agents and Matt Patricia are in trouble, but you get the point).
Here comes Cleveland, with their third-string rookie quarterback with one of the ugliest releases around, but a ground game that leads the NFL in yards-per-game. Isaiah Crowell (394 yards, three TDs) and Duke Johnson (263 yards-from-scrimmage) are legitimate threats behind a solid offensive line led by Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio.
Terrelle Pryor is a big challenge and if the Patriots stick their usual cornerback matchups it will be Logan Ryan on him. Yes, Ryan will be in the crosshairs once again. We’ll see how he responds. On the other side it should be Malcolm Butler against Andrew Hawkins or whichever of the rookie receivers the Browns roll out there. Chung on Gary Barnidge and let’s roll.
So there’s not much secret to what the Patriots have to do. Stack the box and press the line of scrimmage. Stop the run. Take away the short passes. Make Cody Kessler beat them with accurate medium-to-long throws.
The thing I like is that this is a physical challenge, less a mental one. Last week you had a mobile quarterback which seemed to cause a lot of hesitation in the Patriots defense. They looked indecisive. There should be no indecision this week. It’s a smashmouth matchup, the kind the Patriots are usually up for. And it’s the perfect way to knock the Bills loss from memory.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. GET OFF THE FIELD ON THIRD DOWN — For all the analysis of the defense, they just need to get off the field on third down and then their defense will start to look a whole lot better. Right now they’re 30th in the NFL, dipping to a level we haven’t seen since 2010 when they were torn up by every team they faced. That defense had little talent. This one doesn’t have that excuse. So it’s time for them to start getting after the quarterback and making plays on the money down. If they can’t do it against this offense I’ll start to lose hope.
2. Stop the Run — Obviously this is where the game will be decided. To get off the field on third down they have to get run stops on first and second down. Otherwise there will be no third downs to get stops on. With Vincent Valentine likely out, depth could be an issue. Throw in a shoulder injury for Jonathan Freeny (aka the weak link already) and you can see where the Browns will want to attack early and often. Hightower and Collins must dominate inside.
3. Protect the Franchise (aka TB12) — As our old mantra goes, “protect Tom Brady and he’ll destroy any defense.” So of course that’s true against the Browns. Now that the Pats have some semblance of a running game that should help matters too, although LeGarrette Blount popped up with a hip injury on the report this week, although he didn’t miss practice. Get Blount going, then let Brady go to work with G&B from a nice clean pocket. Hopefully everyone is quickly in sync.
4. Outside Receivers? We have those? — The last couple weeks of the Brissett offense has been blatantly devoid of the Patriots usual bread and butter — Edelman, Amendola and new addition Chris Hogan, who’s been getting open but hasn’t been getting the ball thrown to him. It’s a total unknown for the Patriots offense, but it’s what Brady does best. For all the talk of the G&B offense, it’s 11, 80 and 15 who should be the real weapons here. It will be nice to see some long catch-and-runs, assuming the Edelman foot injury that re-appeared on the injury report Thursday ain’t no thang.
5. WIN — A loss in completely unacceptable this week and everyone knows it. Most are assuming Brady steps in like his old self, the defense starts making plays again and the Pats roll. And anything else, for any period of game time, will be exceptionally frustrating, though I’m sure those moments will happen in small spurts. Brady hasn’t played in a month-plus and the Browns are a scrappy team despite their record. Still, I’m putting my homer hat all the way on this week. Brady’s back and it’s time to start wasting fools.
Prediction: Patriots 70, Browns 0