New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Once again, we’re on to Cincinnati! And yours truly is especially excited because it’s time for my annual pilgrimage home for a Pats game. I saw plenty of games as a kid when the Patriots stunk in the 80’s and 90’s, but in the summer of 2006 I still hadn’t seen a live Brady/Belichick and decided it was time that changed.

Since then I’ve been to 13 Patriots games, and the Pats are 10-3 overall. The only losses — ’08 at SD, ’11 vs NYG and ’12 at SEA. The best wins — ’06 AFCDG at SD and ’14 vs. DEN. Hopefully this game gets us to 11 wins! But really, the result of the game is always secondary to the good times with family and friends, and the excitement leading up to the game itself.

And if you’d like to join us, we’ve got a bus running out of Quincy Center to the game and will have a bunch of stuff to giveaway as well. So yes, it will be a wonderful day and we’ll have social media updates flying all over the place.

It seemed like the Pats and Bengals were on a collision course last season, but then Andy Dalton got hurt and Cinci later imploded against the Steelers in the playoffs and it never happened. Now, the 2-3 Bengals aren’t off to the same hot start they had last year, and let’s face it, usually the Pats have their way with Marvin Lewis‘ team, save that one rainy performance in 2013 on the road.

So maybe there’s a little less hype surrounding this one than we might’ve thought, but still, the Bengals have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and this will be a good challenge for a Patriots team that is starting to round into form after the return of Tom Brady.

Here’s the gameplan to get a win and make my annual trip a success.

Offensive Gameplan

With just about full health, there’s really nothing the Patriots can’t do on offense at this point. The two tight end offense with Gronk and Bennett looked every bit as unstoppable against the Browns as we expected. While the run game last week wasn’t exactly as productive as it had been the first four weeks, the combination of James White and LeGarrette Blount has looked far more well-rounded and potent than they did after Dion Lewis went down last year.

Last week the Bengals were gashed by the Cowboys for 180 rushing yards. The Pats should attack them there first then let Brady at the 2TE offense go to work.

The Bengals defense hasn’t be the same unit that had the 10th-best DVOA last season. They’ve slipped to 19th but are still 9th-best on third down.

Geno Atkins is always a huge challenge and the interior of the Pats’ line should have their hands full. Nothing can derail a Tom Brady offense like up-the-gut pressure. If Atkins is getting push, ends Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap will cause problems. This is really where the game will be won or lost, so the Pats should try to mix in plenty of Blount runs to keep the Bengals from all-out pass rush mode.

But what else is there to say? Patriots gonna Patriots as long as Brady has time.

 

Defensive Gameplan

The Bengals offense starts with A.J. Green (36 catches, 518 yards) who is battling a calf injury that held him out of practice earlier this week. Seems like Green should be good to go now, but could be limited. The question is who takes him. In the past, Logan Ryan has usually taken the bigger receivers while Malcolm Butler takes the quicker ones, but the Pats have mixed things up a little more this season. But it’s a good bet that no matter who takes him they’ll likely have safety help over the top.

Giovanni Bernard (25 catches, 211 yards receiving, 329 total yards from scrimmage) is the next weapon to focus on. The Patriots have mixed and matched running back coverage this year a little more than in the past when it was primarily Dont’a Hightower covering them on passing downs. With Tyler Eifert not expected to play, it could free up Jamie Collins to take the diminutive Bernard.

Then comes old friend Brandon LaFell (21 catches, 276 yards) who’s had a bit of a resurgence after a down year with the Pats last year. Ryan and Butler should have plenty of experience against him. Jeremy Hill is a big back, but missed last week with a chest injury. He’s expected back against the Pats but how effective will he be? The Pats run defense was extremely stout last week against the Browns, but that was a far less threatening passing game.

The Bengals still run a lot of shifts and different formations. This will stress communication on defense, but with our veteran crew that should not be a problem.

The most interesting matchup? The Bengals 30th-ranked 3rd down offense vs. the Patriots 27th-ranked 3rd down defense. 3rd downs, along with the red zone defense (30th) have been the Patriots statistical weaknesses this year. While the Bengals don’t have the impressive stats to worry anyone, their talent has to be respected.

This is a great game to get the defense on track in those critical areas.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away A.J. — This is just what Belichick does, take away the oppositions biggest strength. Now if Green is limited and the Pats don’t have to dedicated two resources to cover him even better. But if the Bengals are going to win this game, they’re going to have to do it with LaFell, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Boyd. Those matchups with Patrick Chung, Justin Coleman/Cyrus Jones are where the game will be won or lost on defense.

2. Break their Defense — We’ve all seen enough Bengals meltdowns to know that all it usually takes is a clean, disciplined game to beat them. Once the hole gets big enough they’re likely to pack it in, especially on the road against the Patriots who’ve essentially owned them. Or who knows, maybe like the Bills two weeks ago, this is the one time the Bengals come in and play that clean game needed to stick with the Patriots. I’ll believe it when I see it. Get off to a fast start and put them behind the eight ball early and this one should be essentially over.

3. Red Zone Third Downs — Of course, red zone third downs are a huge key for every defense, but this week it’s an area that combines everything the Pats have struggled with early in the season on defense. Though they’ve faced just six red zone third downs (tied for second-fewest in the league) they’ve allowed first down conversions on a league-worst 83.3 percent of them. That’s just one red zone third down stop all season. So this is an area to focus on this week and one I’ll break down in the film study next week.

4. Protect Brady — Ah yes, the “no duh” portion of the five points of emphasis, but we’re all familiar with how a Patriots loss looks. It’s starts and ends with Tom Brady under duress early and often. The offensive line still hasn’t had a terrible game yet this season. Not that I’m expecting one, but we do usually get one. Maybe Dante Scarnecchia’s return will prevent it. It’s certainly a lot easier at home to get good OL play. But the only way the Patriots lose this game is if Brady doesn’t find a rhythm. I find that hard to see happening, but you never know.

5. Win — This game could be critical at the end of the season since the Bengals have lost to the other two best teams in the AFC already — Denver and Pittsburgh. A Patriots loss would put them at a tie-breaker disadvantage. But let’s not worry about that. Getting that first win at home for Tom Brady will truly get the 2016 bus rolling. The next three games before the bye are all terrific matchups that will tell us a lot about what the Patriots have this season. Getting a win over the Bengals will give the Pats a lot of confidence heading into next week’s AFC showdown in Pittsburgh.

 

Prediction: Patriots 38, Bengals 13