The 5-1 Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers Sunday in what was supposed to be an AFC Championship game preview, but with Ben Roethlisberger out the game won’t quite live up to that hype. Still the Steelers have two of the most dynamic weapons in the game — Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, and both should provide plenty of problems for the Patriots on the road.
It seems after last week’s win over the Bengals that the Patriots are starting to find their stride in 2016. They got through Brady’s suspension and overcame some minor injuries and are now looking to establish the one thing they’ve been missing in the first six weeks of the season — consistency.
No one will be handing out any awards for beating Landry Jones, but this is an important game nonetheless, and one that could very well determine where a potential rematch is played. We all know how impossible the Patriots can be to beat at home in the playoffs so a victory here provides a key tie breaker that could be needed when the season ends.
It’s hard to believe the Patriots and Steelers have only met four times in the regular season since 2010, and haven’t met in the playoffs since 2004’s AFC Championship.
Here’s the gameplan for a rivalry renewed once again…
Offensive Gameplan
There’s really no secret that the Patriots offensive gameplan against the Steelers has revolved around Rob Gronkowski in the last four meetings. Gronk has 26 catches for 403 yards and seven touchdowns in those meetings. The Patriots are 3-1 in that time, outscoring the Steelers in those victories by 122 to 78. And those numbers make the game look closer than they were. The Pats have had little trouble racing out to insurmountable leads before the Steelers tack on some points in garbage time.
So now with Martellus Bennett in the mix, the Steelers’ problems are only compounded. Add in that both defensive stalwarts Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier will likely be out and the Pats’ offense should be licking their chops even more because it’s undebatable that Tom Brady has owned the Steelers throughout his career. Pittsburgh has beaten him just twice (2004 and 2013).
#Patriots QB Tom Brady played #Steelers 10 times in his career, two in playoffs. He has 113.4 QB rating, 24 TDs, just 3 INTs, 325 yards avrg
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 20, 2016
Right now, the Patriots offense feels too good to be true and you just hope and pray that they can avoid a significant injury that takes them off course.
In a perfect world, it’d be great to see LeGarrette Blount get back on track this week. After averaging over four yards-per-carry from weeks two through four, Blount has dipped to 2.06 and 3.85 the last two weeks. The ground game could take some pressure off the passing game and keep Brady, Gronk, et al out of the line of fire.
Still, there’s no question this is a Brady passing game and he should feast on Pittsburgh like he usually does.
Defensive Gameplan
As I wrote this past week, the defense is progressing. Yes, they’re still 27th on third down and 29th in the red zone, but they took some significant strides against the Bengals, led by AFC Defensive Player of the Week Dont’a Hightower. It’s clear now that the Patriots are just a different defense with Hightower at full strength and after last week there was little doubt he’s their MVP.
Without Roethlisberger, some of the pressure is taken off, but the Steelers still have Le’Veon Bell, who led Bill Belichick to mutter a rare “oh my god” when talking about how good he is. There’s little question that stopping Bell is the first and biggest key. Bell has had two pedestrian weeks after going off for 144 yards against the Chiefs.
The Patriots could go back to more of a heavy front like they used against the Browns featuring three defensive linemen instead of their usual two. That Branch-Hamilton-Brown front had great success against the then first-ranked rushing offense in Cleveland. Bell would be an even bigger challenge.
The most fascinating individual matchup will be whoever is covering Antonio Brown. In 2015’s season opener, Malcolm Butler was thrown into the fire and, despite Brown grabbing nine catches for 133 yards and a touchdown, Butler competed well and was just millimeters away from defending almost every pass. Would love to see Butler take another step forward in this re-match, but it will be hard to truly judge without Roethlisberger throwing the passes.
Or perhaps the smarter play would be to let Logan Ryan and Devin McCourty double Brown as the Pats have done to AJ Green and others this season. That would leave Butler singled on Markus Wheaton.
Ultimately the Patriots need to continue to progress no matter who they’re facing. Getting off the field on third down, especially in the red zone will cure all that ails the defense. But it will all start with stopping the run and forcing Jones to beat the defense with his arm.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Stop the Run – There’s no secret here. LeVeon Bell is that good and if he gets loose things will be a lot easier for Landry Jones. The Pats’ physical combination of Hightower and rookie Elandon Roberts should be an exciting counter to the Steelers’ ground game. That’s where this game will be won or lost.
2. Lock Down Brown – Antonio Brown is the most exciting receiver in the NFL and it’s nearly impossible to shut him down for an entire game… at least when Big Ben is in there. Brown will draw the majority of the attention in the secondary, whether Butler gets another shot at him or the Pats prefer to double him with Ryan this time around. Regardless, Brown can’t be allowed to blow the game open with a big play. He’ll get his catches, but he must be contained.
3. Third Down Defense – This is the game now, getting off the field on third down. And the Pats defense’s struggles in this important area this season have been well-documented. Continued progress in this area is critical and what will change the notion that this defense is underperforming.
4. Brady-Gronk-Bennett – It’s exciting to watch the anticipated two tight end sets with G&B continue to progress and there’s no question this should be another game where they click into unstoppable mode. The offense sputtered early against the Bengals before finding their stride. It would be great to see a full 60 minutes out of them this time.
5. Win – Regardless of who the opposing quarterback is, this is a vital game in the big picture. The last thing the Patriots want is to have to go back to Pittsburgh in the playoffs and have to face Roethlisberger. The Pats caught a break with Big Ben being out, they must take advantage and then can turn the page to a huge AFC East rematch with the Bills in Buffalo.
Prediction: Patriots 55, Steelers 10
