It’s been just four short weeks since the Patriots were shut out at home for the first time since the early 90’s by the Buffalo Bills. The game got off to annoying start when the Bills secondary took issue with Jacoby Brissett and Malcolm Mitchell running by their pregame drills and started a pushing contest with Mitchell as Brissett ignored them and continued toward the locker room. Some Patriots coaches got involved and all of it resulted in fines for three Bills’ players.
This wasn’t the Patriots trying to start shit. This was the Bills trying to get in the head of a rookie quarterback then acting like they were just defending their precious warm-up drill, as if two rookies just decided to cut straight through the Bills secondary to send a message.
The Patriots played coy about the pregame incident but Danny Amendola did comment afterwards, “It pissed me off to tell you the truth,” Amendola said. “I’m not going to forget about that. … I just heard they got into it and to be ready to go. I’m always ready to play this team.”
Well, here we go.
The Patriots’ performance in Week 4 was gross. The offense was, well, led by one-thumbed rookie Jacoby Brissett, and alleged provocateur, while Gronk was in his second game working back from a hamstring injury They also fumbled five times, even though they only lost one.
So we can throw most of that offensive performance out. However, the defense was flat and gave up 378 yards. It was one of those games where almost nothing they did worked and they were on their heels most of the game. They did give up just one touchdown in the first quarter and then three field goals, none in the fourth quarter.
Brady could win with that performance from his defense and they were pretty much terrible. So it has to be better this time, right?
Also uncharacteristic was that the Pats lost both the turnover (-1) and penalty battles (9-74 to 6-60).
Now the stage is set for a meaningful game in an awesome road football environment, with some bad blood already brewing. These are the regular season games you live for.
What the Patriots have to do to redeem themselves and put a stranglehold on the AFC East in the gameplan.
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Offensive Gameplan
The Patriots have Tom Brady back instead of one-thumbed rookie Jacoby Brissett. That’s kind of big. Oh, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have more than the one catch he had in Week 4. Yes, the Patriots offense is a thousand times more dangerous this time.
But Rex’s defense is really good. And they’re at home.
The Rex-Brady matchups are always fascinating and no defensive coach gives Brady a harder time than Rex does, even if the overall record (Pats 11-5) doesn’t reflect it. Last season the Pats put 500 yards of offense on the Bills in Buffalo in a closer-than-it-should-be 40-32 win.
Rex’s gameplans for Brady involve a lot of dropping everyone into coverage, mixed with overload blitzes that often get home. So you’ll see Brady with a ton of time, only three guys rushing him, trying to find a hole in the zone, or, unfortunately, see him hitting the deck as a free runner closes in. Rex wins some, but he loses more.
This game will be no different. Rex will pick his spots for overload blitzes, trying to attack the young interior offensive linemen.
The key will be the guys who Brady knows and trusts the most — Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and a sprinkling of the critical situation receiver, Danny Amendola. Not that Martellus Bennett, James White and Chris Hogan won’t be important, but it’s the guys who can a) get open quickly off the snap and b) get open when the flood of zone coverage defenders take away the initial reads.
Edelman had 11 catches on 19 targets for 97 yards and two touchdowns in 2015’s Week 2, while Gronk had seven catches for 113 yards.
Those are the guys that must lead the charge this time around, though having Bennett certainly will stress Rex in a way he wasn’t last season. Mix in a couple shots to Hogan and we’re all hoping the Pats take this Bills defense to the woodshed.
Every now and then the Patriots embarrass Rex. We’re due for another one since the Buttfumble game and could get it if the Patriots offense goes unstoppable.
Defensive Gameplan
First off, Week 4 was just an uncharacteristic flat and sloppy game for the Patriots defense. Dont’a Hightower was playing his first game after two weeks off dealing with an injury and looked rusty. Jonathan Freeny was playing a prominent role. The tackling was horrible. They gave up first downs after getting the Bills in second-and-20-plus a couple times. It was just all-around gross. It won’t be that gross this time, especially if the threat of LeSean McCoy is not present.
The Pats are a little better equipped this time to handle the Bills running game with wrecking ball Elandon Roberts‘ emergence. Add in that Rob Ninkovich is back and the Patriots’ overall gameplan against a mobile QB like Tyrod Taylor should be far more manageable. Taylor was on fire against the Pats in Week 4, even when they kept him in the pocket and forced him to make throws. We’ll see if he can do it again.
For all the complaining we’ve done about the Patriots’ pass rush problems, this is not the week to worry about it. This is going to be a coverage game. The receiver routes must be disrupted at the line. If that doesn’t happen, as it didn’t in Week 4, it could be another frustrating game. The good thing is that the secondary has been trending upward in recent weeks, led by Malcolm Butler.
A big adjustment in Week 4’s second half was taking away the quick slants by dropping linebackers into zones. The Pats should do this right out of the gate. They’re Taylor’s bread and butter passing play, along with occasional deep shots.
But maybe the most important thing will be simply tackling. There were far too many plays like the one below in Week 4. If the Pats tackle when they have the chance, they’ll be in a lot better position throughout the game.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Toast Robert Blanton — Yes this is a weird key, and very unBelichickian (Hoodie please forgive me). But… FUCK. THAT. GUY. The Patriots play all coy about the pregame fight, “oh we didn’t even know and we’re not even thinking about it now…” Sure. They know. They’re thinking about it. Add in that the Bills are saying they’ll be ready to rumble again? Give me a break. Blanton is going to have a monster target on his back because he was the idiot who led the charge (and was fined $21K for it). Just like Anthony Smith in 2007, the Patriots will go out of their way to embarrass Blanton if and when the opportunity presents itself. And I will be grinning ear to ear.
2. Contain and Collapse — Maybe Tyrod Taylor is ascending into a legit NFL quarterback, he sure looked like it in Week 4, but I need to see him do it again to truly believe. Even Mark Sanchez had a great game against us once. The big keys: keep him in the pocket, take away the quick slants, don’t get beat deep. Yes, it’s a lot to focus on, but those are the game. The deep ball is the biggest key of them all. The front seven must contain him, then collapse the pocket around him and finish him. Just three measly sacks would be AMAZING.
3. Offensive Communication — The huge and only key for the offense is all aspects of communication, especially the line calls (vital with Rex’s deception) and Brady’s presnap audibles. The Bills fans know what’s at stake and the stadium will be rocking. But if the Patriots are all on the same page on offense, they will move the ball. The must be locked in.
4. Sound Defense — The defense barely showed up in Week 4. That happens once or twice almost every September. But now they’re looking a little better each week. This doesn’t have to be a “break out” game. They just need to play under control and, I don’t know if you’ve ever heard this one before, DO THEIR JOB. Wrap up and tackle. Jam at the line of scrimmage. Don’t get beat deep. These are fundamentals of football defense, but that’s all it will take to provide enough cushion for Brady to win the game.
5. Win: What would be better than being 7-1 heading into the bye with a three-game lead in the division? Especially if they can make it one more week without a major injury? You couldn’t ask for more.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17
