The 5-2 New England Patriots welcome the 3-4 Chicago Bears this Sunday after a ten day break coming off their Thursday Night Football win over the New York Jets.
The Pats badly needed some time to regroup and get healthy, especially along the offensive line where Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork are still recovering from concussions. The Pats also got news that they’ll be without Chandler Jones for the next month, this coming on top of losing Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley for the season the week before.
The Patriots looked tired and had poor communication against the Jets, but hopefully the last ten days have given them some time to get back on the same page. They also traded for linebacker Akeem Ayers this week, who was buried on the Titans depth chart, but could see immediate action given the Pats’ injuries on defense.
Here’s the gameplan for the Bears…
Offensive Gameplan
Despite some up and downs against the Jets, the Patriots offense is starting to find their stride. Shane Vereen looks like he might now be New England’s feature back, while Brandon LaFell has developed into the big target Tom Brady has lacked for a while.
With Rob Gronkowski looking better and better each week and Julian Edelman continuing on pace for 100 catches and 1,000 yards, the Pats offense should feast on a suspect Bears secondary.
The Bears are 30th in DVOA against tight ends and 26th against #2 WRs – signs that point to big games for Gronk and Edelman.
Tom Brady has never had a problem finding the open receiver, and if he continues to throw the ball downfield with better accuracy and consistency the Pats offense could find another gear this week.
Getting tight end Tim Wright even more involved should be a focus this week, especially with more expected spread formations. Perhaps it’s time to revisit the Vereen-White double RB sets.
This game will be about the pass, at least early. If the protection holds as it has in recent weeks, the Pats will move the ball.
Defensive Gameplan
The Patriots have had three ugly defensive performances – the win over the Jets and the two losses to Miami and Kansas City. All three looked the same with the Pats making fundamental errors – missed tackles, lost contain and untimely penalties being the main problems.
Those problems are fixable, but there’s little question the Bears will look to attack a Patriots run defense that has been shredded this season. They are currently 23rd in run defense DVOA.
The receiving combo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey might provide the most interesting challenge of the season for the Pats’ secondary. Darrelle Revis has had success against Marshall in the past, while Brandon Browner’s size should be an asset against Jeffrey.
But even if the coverage is great, the pass rush might be the biggest concern. The Pats are currently 25th in the NFL on third down and they were that bad with Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher. How much worse will they be without him?
No secondary can cover forever, so it will be on the replacement pass rush parts – Dominique Easley, Zach Moore and perhaps Akeem Ayers to get after Jay Cutler and force mistakes.
Points of Emphasis
1. Generate Pressure Any Way Possible: As I mentioned above, getting to Jay Cutler could be the deciding factor in this game. If Belichick needs to get creative to generate pass rush so be it. In the past we’ve seen Belichick resort to walk-around amoeba defenses on third down to aid the pass rush. He’s not going to be sending six pass rushers every down, but the occasional slot corner blitz has had some success. Expect a healthy rotation in Chandler Jones’ spot, someone has to get the job done.
2. Fundamentals: This defense needs to find some consistency with their fundamental skills. With the extra time off, I expect we’ll see better tackling and the Pats are always more comfortable against a traditional pocket passer like Jay Cutler. When the Patriots simply make the tackles they’re in position to make and don’t get overaggressive and lose sight of their “job”, they’re a solid defense. But at some point they need to start stringing success together and it starts against a Bears offense that has plenty of weapons.
3. Hammer Down Immediately: The turmoil in the Bears locker room was well-documented last week and the Patriots need to come out of the gate with guns blazing to plant the seed of doubt immediately in this volatile team’s minds. This applies on both sides of the ball and it starts up front. The offensive and defensive lines must be ready to explode on their respective first series to set the tone and let the Bears know it’s going to be a long night. If that happens, the Bears could fold and start making mistakes that only make things worse.
4. Get the New Guys Involved: Between Jonas Grey, Zach Moore, Akeem Ayers and Dontae Skinner, the Patriots will need contributions from some new players going forward and it’s important to get them involved and start building their confidence and experience. This could come at the expense of giving up some plays, but it’s better to take those lumps now in October against an NFC opponent. The sooner we find out who can help the team win, the sooner they can start helping.
5. Win: I’m trying my best not to look ahead to the Denver game. Not only for the game itself, but for the awesome pregame tailgate giveaway party we’re throwing. But Brady-Manning is a headline game every season and the Broncos look like the best team in the NFL. That challenge will have to wait. For now the Pats have to take advantage of being at home against a team they should beat. This is the start of an incredibly hard stretch of games and every win matters. Get to 6-2 and worry about the rest next week.