These are the weeks that the Patriots’ “one game at a time” and “everyone is good and capable of beating us” mantra must really be put to the test. Look, it’s nothing against the Redskins, they’re not that terrible and I’m sure if the game unfolds in a specific way they very well could hand the Patriots their first meaningful home loss since 2012, but it’s just so hard to see that happening and thus hard to get fired up for this game.
I do try to cherish every regular season game, because in two short months we’ll be hitting the playoffs and before you know it the offseason will be upon us. There are just so many storylines with just about every other team in the NFL that give you something to get at least a little bit excited about, but with the Redskins I got zippo.
Still it’s a chance to get better and see some of our weak spots challenged a bit. But really all I care about is getting a win without losing anyone to injury for the season.
With that in mind, here’s the gameplan!
Offensive Gameplan
These offensive gameplans get easier to write every week. I could just write, “Do what we do, see if they can stop it or we have an off day” and then that’s it. But schematically the Patriots don’t really need to adjust their gameplan each week because it simply boils down to getting the ball in Gronk/Edelman/Lewis’ hands as much as possible and then finishing teams off with the power rushing of Blount.
Maybe a defense can force the Patriots to go to Amendola or Chandler in some key moments, but when those guys come through in those moments there’s really not much else an opponent can do.
What I think is important to focus on are the areas that I’m not quite sold are rock solid yet. The offensive line would be the place to start, although they’re really just a Marcus Cannon return away from still having their most experienced line possible. It’s likely Jackson and Mason are out, and we know we’re getting Fleming at RT again, but an interior line of Kline-Andrews-Wendell is solid, and I’m curious to see how they deal with the size of Terrence Knighton who did give them some problems in the past.
The big question is what happens when Stork comes back. Can you work a center rotation in-game, or is that undesirable? It’s hard to yank Andrews, even for the biggest Stork supporter like myself, but if the Pats get a comfortable lead this week, it could be the right time to give Stork some snaps. It’s still pretty strange to have no depth at tackle or guard, but too many good centers.
Hopefully Cannon gets back soon, Vollmer can go back to right tackle and then they can figure out how everything in the middle will work.
The Redskins are 10th in passing yards allowed-per-game (that’s certainly going up after this one) so I’d like to see more of Brandon LaFell getting involved in the offense. Lewis has been the biggest addition this year, but if/when LaFell gets back to his 2014 level I shudder to think about how potent this offense will be.
Ryan Kerrigan’s availability is a big storyline in this one because without him I’m mainly thinking about targeting the Redskins’ run defense, ranked 30th in yards-per-game. It would be nice to protect Gronk, Edelman et al with just a good old fashioned ground-and-pound with Blount, who has been somewhat quiet in recent weeks.
Defensive Gameplan
DeSean Jackson (most likely back from injury) and tight end Jordan Reed are the headliners for the Redskins offense and I think they present some interesting challenges for the Patriots’ defense, while Pierre Garcon is their reliable chain mover.
Covering tight ends has been markedly improved this season, as the Pats have gone from 30th last year to 5th this year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. Credit has to go to Patrick Chung, who’s been remarkable in his second stint with the Pats now that they’re not asking him to be a Cover-2 deep safety anymore, nor are they asking him to cover slot receivers. McCourty also gets some credit as he’ll come down and cover TEs on clear passing downs as well, so expect some combination of them on Reed.
As for Jackson, this will be another pure speed test for the defense after not really seeing someone like him since Antonio Brown in the opener. But I’d think given the rest of the threats around him that the Pats might use Ryan at the line on Jackson with Harmon over the top. Butler might be better served taking Pierre Garcon one-on-one.
Otherwise, we have a good bead on the Patriots defense now. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch are the top two tackles, with Easley coming on in passing situations, often with Geneo Grissom, who has settled into an interior sub rusher role after we thought he was more of a defensive end.
I am also curious to see if there is more of the 4 safety/3 corner look that we saw last week a few times. This features Harmon as the deep centerfield safety, Chung and Richards covering the seams in zone, McCourty manning up a tight end and the corners manning up the rest of the receivers. I like this package because it can take away a lot of easy passes and brings an element of physicality multiple DB packages often lack.
But ultimately if the Pats set the edge, tackle well and win their one-on-one pass rush opportunities they should be fine limiting Cousins et al.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Take Away Reed: I like to start by taking away any safety blanket an inexperienced quarterback has and Reed is that for Cousins. Those are the easy throws and jamming Reed at the line is a no-brainer. Eliminating the first read and easiest throw will put pressure on Cousins that should result in turnovers.
2. Butler on Garcon: Garcon is Cousin’s most targeted receiver overall and especially on third down. The veteran should be a good challenge for Butler, but I think making Cousins beat us with DeSean Jackson is the way to go. It will also test our deep threat defense, an area the Pats have struggled the last five seasons. No better time to see where we’re at with it than in this one.
3. Let Them Pick Their Poison: Double Gronk? Double Edelman? Play Dime? Or Nickel? Whatever the Redskins choose to do the Patriots have the pieces to counter and counter hard. As I touched on earlier, Lewis and LaFell are the trickle down problems, while Amendola and Scott Chandler are ready to come through when needed. Whoever is needed will be ready and the Redskins’ in-game adjustments won’t be enough to stop everyone.
4. Chandler Jones vs. Trent Williams: As I wrote yesterday, I think Chandler Jones is the key to the Patriots’ Super Bowl hopes this year, and he gets a great challenge in Trent Williams this week. I don’t see a world where Chandler Jones has a great game and the Patriots lose. If he’s on and getting pressure, the Patriots will be nearly unbeatable. He just has to find the consistency that has somewhat evaded him so far.
5. Win: It might be hard for the fans to excited about this one, but it’s a chance for the team to get better in some areas that still have question marks and finish off half the season undefeated, no easy task that we somewhat take for granted. The page will be turned quickly to the New York Giants, who present good challenges both now and historically. But some games just feel like a no win unless they’re a stress-free blowout and hopefully that’s what this one turns into.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Redskins 13