This one has been circled since the schedule came out in April, and now it’s finally time to enjoy a clash of the two best teams in the NFL. Many are betting the Patriots and Broncos will meet again on the way to the Super Bowl and this game might just decide where it’s played.
This is what football is all about, and a loss will not be detrimental to either team. There’s still time for injuries and recoveries to play out, along with new hot or cold streaks. Both teams could have a far different complexion if they meet again in January.
But for now, at the start of the second half of the season, here’s the game plan.
Offensive Gameplan
Not to oversimplify a gameplan, but this one would seem to be all about the Patriots offensive line. More often than not we can make the case that that is always the biggest key for the Patriots – give Brady time and he’ll carve up any defense.
But if he can never find a rhythm, it could be a long night, just like the AFC Championship game was.
In that one it was Terrence Knighton who gave the interior of the Patriots offense line nightmares.
That was impetus for advocating a rehaul of the center and right guard positions in the offseason. That happened, but not in the way we thought it would. Now it will be two of the same three pieces and a rookie in the middle against the Broncos. Can they do better than they did with Mankins in there in January? It’s a huge question.
But the bigger problem this year has been the play of the tackles, especially Nate Solder, though he has settled down in recent weeks. Still, he and Sebastian Vollmer (and rotational tackle Marcus Cannon) are facing arguably the best one-two edge punch in the NFL this year with Demarcus Ware and Von Miller.
Solder had his problems with Miller last year and will need to bring his best game of the season. Being at home will certainly help him get off the ball, but short, quick pass rushers seem to always give him fits.
If the offensive line holds up, the rest doesn’t really matter. Brady will find whoever is open, whether Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are matching up on Gronk, LaFell or Edelman.
Perhaps the best course of action will be to take advantage of the Broncos interior linebackers with Shane Vereen in the passing game.
Regardless, just give Brady time and everything should fall into place on offense.
Defensive Gameplan
The big question this week is how will the Patriots matchup with the Broncos array of weaponry? This is New England’s best secondary since 2003, one that seems to have been specifically built with beating the Broncos in mind.
I believe that the Patriots will mix things up from down to down. There will be times where Browner and Revis stay on their sides, but I think there will also be third downs where they want to get the specific matchups. Let’s face it, Manning knows how to find the open receiver, so even if the Thomases are taken away, he’ll throw it to Sanders or Welker, or check into a run.
Do the Pats go with a light box and tempt Manning to hand the ball off like he did in last year’s regular season tilt? I’m sure they’ll pick their spots with that as well.
Ultimately there is no definitive matchups that the Pats will push every down. Mixing up against Manning is essential. I expect to see Kyle Arrington back in heavy rotation after being lightly used the last two weeks.
The spot I’m most unsure about is Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas. If Julius splits out wide, it’s a no-brainer. But you can’t expect Browner to go inside and expect him to cover him with every route option on the table.
So when Thomas is inside, expect a linebacker over him with strict orders to destroy him on the line of scrimmage. When he goes outside, he gets Browner.
Revis on Demaryius Thomas seems like a no-brainer for important downs. But I don’t expect Revis to follow Demaryius all over the field, every down.
Arrington has had good success against Welker, but Emmanuel Sanders is a problem. Alfonzo Dennard could be a good physical choice to cover him, but I’d like to see Duron Harmon over the top of him, while Devin McCourty plays a free safety role.
Does Patrick Chung play much in this one? That’s a big question I have. Him in coverage on just about anyone is a mismatch. Thus I’d expect a lot of McCourty-Harmon on the back end, only bringing Chung in if the Broncos run game is effective.
Or perhaps it plays out like the scenario that was discussed this offseason, with Browner and safety help on Demaryius, Revis on Emmanuel Sanders, and a similar plan inside.
But for all the talk of the secondary, this game will be won or lost by the Patriots front seven and how well they A) stop the run from their sub package and B) get enough pressure to disrupt Manning’s throws.
The initial coverage should be effective with the Pats ability to jam at the line of scrimmage. But after that initial disruption it will be up to the likes of Rob Ninovich, Dominique Easley, Akeem Ayers and any blitzing linebackers to get after Manning. No secondary can cover forever. It’s unlikely the Pats will get a bunch of sacks, but the disruption of the pocket and getting Manning just a bit uncomfortable is paramount.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Protect. Tom. Brady. : I don’t care if Peyton Manning puts up 40-plus points and torches our defense, if the offensive line protects Brady he could put up 40-plus as well. Brady has torched the Jack Del Rio defense numerous times in Foxboro. This isn’t Rex Ryan, where we can expect him to take Brady off his game schematically. The only way Brady doesn’t have a good game is if he’s running for his life. With this year’s offensive line that wouldn’t be a surprise. They need a huge game.
2. Find a Pass Rush: The Patriots hopes in this one took a serious blow when they lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones. Jones was the only semi-consistent pass rushing threat on the Pats early in the season, now they’re going to have to find a consistent pass rush from those who were below him on the depth chart or replacements. Dominique Easley looked impressive early against the Bears as Jones’ replacement, he’ll have his work cut out for him this week. Perhaps Akeem Ayers can generate some pressure on Manning, or defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has shined with some interior rush at certain times. Somehow the Pats have to find some finishers this week. The secondary should give them an extra beat, but it can’t go any longer or else someone will get open.
3. Wilfork Must Dominate: It’s hard to believe the severity of the injury Vince Wilfork suffered last year, he’s bounced back like it never even happened. Wilfork is capable of dominating a game by himself (see 2011 AFCCG), and if he can rise to the occasion this week, especially against the run, the Pats defense will get a huge boost. Last year in the regular season matchup the Pats let the Broncos run all over them. This weekend figures to be similar with gusty winds expected to take some air out of the passing game. If the Pats six-man front in the sub-package gets run all over again, it will be tough to keep pace with the Broncos offense. Wilfork and his defensive tackle rotation must come up huge this week.
4. Balance: The Broncos have a ton of talent on defense in all areas and if the Patriots offense becomes one-dimensional, the Broncos will tee off on them. The key to this is maintaining balance in the running and passing game. Keeping guys like Miller and Ware on their heels is a priority. When they know the pass is coming, that’s when they’re at their best. Can Jonas Grey have a breakout day? That might be a pivotal question for Sunday.
5. Win: 7-2 and a tie breaker for homefield advantage over the Broncos in the playoffs is certainly a nice way to go into the bye, especially for a team that most considered dead and buried just a few weeks ago. You can never rule the Patriots out at home no matter how unstoppable their opponent has looked the last few weeks. We know the Patriots will fight down to the end, but will the injuries to Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo cost them? Or how about the changes on the offensive line? This is the game where we’ll find out.
