I know everyone has been going crazy about the possibility of the Pats going to a 4-3 defense this season, of course I’m right there with you. But I’ve found a lot of misinformed articles over the past few days and there are some points that I’d like to hammer home.
- First, the defense was and will always be a multiple front defense. Let’s not make a bigger deal out of this than we need to, as much as I’d like to. It’s easy to get caught up in things like position names like DE and OLB, but they’re somewhat meaningless and don’t tell the real story about how versatile the Patriots defense remains.
- The fact remains that while the Pats lack elite 3-4 defensive ends they still have a plethora (yes, plethora) of two-gap type 3-4 defensive tackles. Other than Myron Pryor and maybe Mike Wright I don’t see any traditional 4-3 defensive tackles which leads me to my next point…
- I suspect that the Patriots version of the 4-3 will not be the straight up Colts/Giants version that is so common. I fully expect two-gap principals on the interior line (Wilfork/Haynesworth/Brace/Love) to remain.
- If anything I believe it would almost be more of a 2-5-4 scheme that would have a 4-3 Over look.
- The advantage of the 3-4 is that offenses don’t know where the pressure is going to come from. In a straight up 4-3 you know exactly where it’s coming from, the defensive ends. With how much BB values disguise I don’t see him suddenly moving to the most straight-forward defense that exists in football.
- Just because Jermaine Cunningham and Eric Moore are seeing time at defensive end doesn’t mean they’ll be expected to suddenly be Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. We’ll still see both on their feet and dropping into coverage at times. That is the great advantage the Patriots would have running a 4-3. Their defensive ends are already comfortable dropping into coverage. This would allow you to throw zone blitz looks fairly easily, with the defensive ends dropping into coverage and a linebacker or defensive back blitzing.
- Playing at weak outside linebacker would almost assuredly mean over 200 tackles for Jerod Mayo, including more sacks and perhaps interceptions as well. In the 4-3, the weak OLB usually has free reign, meaning Mayo would no longer have to defeat guards and could fully use his incredible speed to make plays all over the field.
- The Patriots overall team speed and athleticism would be far greater with five linebacker-types on the field, meaning that in their base defense they might be a little more susceptible to the running game, but they’d also be a little more prepared for the passing game on early downs.
- The number one question that remains is when the Patriots play a run heavy team like the Ravens what do they do? Can they stop the run consistently in this new formation if it is indeed their new base defense? Last year they played the 3-4 on 58 of 77 snaps versus Baltimore. The only really significant storyline is that if they’re no longer running the 3-4 against the offenses that rely on the run game first and foremost.
- Here’s a diagram of a 4-3 Over defense which is probably the closest thing to what we think the Pats would probably run, and really it’s not that far from a 3-4.
NT – Wilfork, 3-tech – Haynesworth, SAM – Guyton, Mike – Spikes, Wwill – Mayo, Buck – Cunningham, DE – Moore
Now it should be a little clearer why Mayo at WLB would have free range, he’s protected by Haynesworth and Moore.
You can also see how much freedom they’d have with two defensive ends who can drop into coverage.
This defense also could make Brandon Spikes a star. Not only would he have more protection from guards, he’d also only have to concern himself with the middle flat in pass coverage which of course was not his strength last year.
We won’t know for sure what the Patriots have brewing until September 12th but it’s certainly fun to speculate based on the camp reports. As they continue to court 4-3 personnel it seems more and more likely that this is a change in philosophy to some extent, but the principals of fielding a big, tough, smart football team will always remain.
Until we see the Patriots in a 4-3 defense against a heavy run team these changes remain “tweaks” in my mind, as opposed to anything that radical. It’s simply trying to get the best players on the field, playing to their strengths, while trying to fix the problems with the pass defense that we’ve seen for the past few seasons.
