PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

How Do Eagles Stack Up to Pats’ Past Super Bowl Challenges?

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With one week to go until Super Bowl 52 the Patriots-Eagles matchup is becoming pretty clear. Any consolation Patriots fans might’ve taken from facing Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz went(z) out the window after Foles systematically destroyed a vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense in the NFC Championship.

Then came this quote from respected analyst and former Patriots staffer Mike Lombardi:

“[The Eagles] really don’t have an identity offensively. They are very unpredictable and they play left-handed. Belichick is so good at making a team play left-handed, but it is kind of hard to make a left-handed team play left-handed.”

Hmmm, that’s not good for my pregame stress levels.

Let’s take a look at how the Eagles stack up against the Patriots previous seven Super Bowl opponents by my favorite stats — points and DVOA efficiency.

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Can Patriots Solve Takeaway Drought?

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I enjoyed watching the below video, taken from a presentation at Notre Dame that Matt Patricia gave. James Light has posted numerous excerpts from it, they’re all fabulous, but this one sparked my attention to a detail that has really flown under the radar with this Patriots defense — their lack of takeaways.


Outside of not forcing a turnover in their 2010 divisional loss to the Jets, this is the first time under Belichick the Patriots have failed to get a takeaway in the playoffs. And it’s not really that surprising for this Patriots defense. They’ve had just two takeaways in the last seven games, including zero in their last four.

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Patriots Scouting Report: Super Bowl 52 vs. Eagles

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I’ve spent the last few days taking a look at a bunch of Eagles games and, like last week watching the Jags, it’s been an enjoyable experience. I get so caught up trying to decipher the Pats game film each week of the regular season that I never get much of a chance to check out another team. Now with a couple weeks to prepare it was nice to not be under the gun and immerse myself in the other team in the Super Bowl.

It should be a fantastic matchiup which should make any bet on Superbowl LII an interesting one.

The games I focused on were primarily toward the end of the season, once Nick Foles took over for Carson Wentz, including a special focus on the two playoff games. Here’s a bunch of things that stood out to me and how I could see the Eagles matching up with the Pats.

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CLNS Pats Chat: Eagles a Tough Matchup for Pats?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66C1nmBJOEg&feature=youtu.be

 

Here’s Mike Petraglia (aka @Trags) and Jimmy Toscano discussing why the Eagles are a tough matchup for the Pats. Things sure don’t get any easier for Tom Brady, facing as tough a front as he’s seen all year and one that has insane depth with eight players who can all produce for the front four. We all know pressure with the front four is what it’s all about against the Patriots defense and the Eagles should cause plenty of problems.

 

Patriots Super Bowl First Quarters vs. Fourth Quarters

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Mike Reiss brought up one of the Patriots most impossible and infamous stats to Bill Belichick yesterday, that the Patriots had yet to score a point in the first quarter of any of their seven Super Bowl appearances. Belichick scoffed even though the players said last year he was all over them about getting off to a fast start against the Falcons, which of course did not happen.

For as remarkable as the Patriots’ dominance since the early 2000s has been to never have scored a point out of the gate is just as remarkable and it’s hard to even guess why. The team has run the gamut from a defense-first squad to an unstoppable offensive one, but it never made a difference. Here are the Pats’ overall stats from Super Bowl first quarters:

Team Defense Table
Play Results Play Type
Tm G Plays ToGo Yds 1st% TO% TD FG 1D Int Fum Sack Pass Rush Punt FG
NYG 2 18 8.00 5.17 33.3% .0% 6 11 7
PHI 1 15 8.07 3.00 6.7% .0% 1 7 5 3
SEA 1 20 7.10 3.75 25.0% 5.0% 5 1 11 8 1
CAR 1 19 9.11 4.68 15.8% .0% 3 9 7 2 1
STL 1 11 7.36 4.55 18.2% .0% 2 5 4 2
ATL 1 17 9.24 4.24 23.5% .0% 4 2 10 5 2
Totals 7 100 8.18 4.24 21.0% 1.0% 0 0 21 1 0 2 53 36 10 1
Pct 7% 0% 0% 21% 1% 0% 2% 53% 36% 10% 1%
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/25/2018.

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Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

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In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

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