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An Independent Patriots Blog

Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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Belichick Hoodie AFC Championship Prediction

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It’s been quite then week for the Hoodie Database. Just when I think my signature stat is totally played out, Belichick goes and throws a huge curveball like he did last week against the Titans. I wrote all about here and dedicated an entire segment on Patshow to it.

The big takeaway? That Belichick busted out the old Reebok hoodie, the one that made him famous. Maybe it wasn’t the gray version we’re most familiar with but really, the gray did the heavy lifting through the Reebok Hoodie tenure, the Blue came around later so it makes sense it’s the one that was preserved and taken from the closet after six long seasons.

Now, with Belichick busting out old hoodies, it’s no wonder the Pats are the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy once again. You can bet on the Patriots to win Superbowl 2018 online at Betting-Super-Bowl.com but first they need to win the AFC Championship over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

So what should Belichick wear to get past the Jags? Let’s take a quick look back at the last six AFC Championships.

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Jags Defense Will Attack Patriots’ Offense With Speed At All Levels

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This week instead of jumping into the Patriots film, I jumped into the Jags. I never get a chance to really study another team because I’m so busy trying to decipher what the Bill Belichick is cooking up. So a chance to take a look at multiple games of film, including the Pats-Jags preseason game, the Jags loss to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers, and both playoff wins.

The Jags defense vs. the Patriots offense is where this game will be won or lost. Their schemes are not complicated, but they have so much speed that they’re really effective. They’re at their absolute best when they get offense’s in third and longs. They have dominant pass rushers and a flexible secondary.

Here are a bunch of quick hits on the Jags defense and how I think they’ll match up against Tom Brady and friends.

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An In-Depth Look at Blake Bortles and the Jaguars Offense

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The Patriots rolled over the Titans Saturday night to the tune of a 35-14 blowout that clinched a spot in the franchises’ seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (is that good?). Up next are the surprising Jaguars, who toppled the Steelers in exciting fashion last Sunday, hanging 45 points on Pittsburgh’s defense. However, I do not think that score should truly worry Patriots fans, as Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles and Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Sure, Bortles played well against Pittsburgh, but I think he will need to play almost perfect in order to come into Foxborough and dethrone the champs.

Sure, Bortles did have a good day (especially for Blake Bortles standards), but if you look closer at the numbers, it is easy to see why the Patriots should be able to lock down Bortles come Sunday. For starters, Bortles only completed 10 passes belong the line of scrimmage. The Jags, rightfully so, simplified their game plan to the max against Pittsburgh, and expect them to use the same formula in Foxboro this Sunday, which should be a positive for New England.

Against Pittsburgh, Bortles was not sacked, and was only pressured on eight of his 28 drop-backs, just 28% of the time he dropped back. When he was kept clean, Bortles had a passer rating of 115.5, but when pressure was applied, his passer rating dropped to an abysmal 39.6.

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Pats Posits: It All Clicked vs. Titans

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After watching the Patriots-Titans game in the bar on Saturday night I had to go back and take another look at it to get the full scope of how it went down. I knew the broad strokes, but trying to analyze the minutiae is just about impossible in between ordering drinks, conversations and shooting Facebook Live videos.

I came away thinking that this was the total team win I had been hoping for. The returning pieces fit in fairly seamlessly and once again we saw more of the Pats team we remember from the middle part of the season, a dominant one that comes at you in a variety of ways. The 2017 aren’t the team that looked blah down the stretch. That team was holding back some key pieces. Now, with everyone back, we saw the real 2017 team, and they should be the overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl 52 now.

The funny part was remembering how uneasy I felt at 7-0 after the Titans put together a perfect drive, capped off by a near-impossible catch. It almost seemed like it might be one of those games that are far closer than it should be, but alas, it was just a matter of time. Yes, the neutral zone infraction that saved the Pats from punting was where the Titans lost any control of the game, ending up in a 21-7 hole, but really, there was no stopping the Patriots in this one no matter how Tennessee played.

The Patriots look primed to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who I spent a good portion of last night getting a jump.

More on this AFC South playoff run in the Posits!

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