PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Making the Case for a Long-Term Logan Ryan Contract

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Patriots Cornerbacks

I’m trying to keep a focus on the Atlanta Falcons and the Super Bowl the next two weeks, but it’s hard to ignore the offseason that will start immediately after the Patriots win or lose in Houston. Most of all, I’m wondering about the defense, where there are multiple starters that are due to hit free agency, in no particular order:

Things were even more complicated at the end of last season, when we thought Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins would be in that group as well. Just because the numbers have been thinned doesn’t make it any less complicated. In fact, the last month or so of the season has really turned my priority list upside down, wondering where the Patriots can and should find the best deals.

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A Look Back at How Pats Defended Falcons in 2013

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The Pats haven’t seen the Falcons since Sunday Night Football in Week Four of 2013. Here were my post-game takeaways back when I was writing for Bleacher Report.

Schematically, at least for the Falcons’ defense, there’s isn’t a ton to take away. This is even more true when you consider the Pats leading receiver was Kenbrell Thompkins with six catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman wasn’t far behind seven catches for 118 yards.

The Pats rolled Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden as their running backs, none of whom are anywhere close to the receiving threats Dion Lewis and James White are. The Falcons’ defensive coordinator was Mike Nolan back then, so the Seattle-esque defensive scheme had not been installed.

However, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were still the straws stirring the drink back then so it’s worth taking a look at how the Pats defended them.

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Five First Impressions of the Falcons

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The extra week off gives a little extra time to jump into some more in-depth film review of the opponent, so I’ve enjoyed the chance to take a look at the Falcons. Admittedly, I get so focused on the Patriots during the season it’s hard to keep track of what every other team is doing, especially in the NFC.

First, the obvious thing to get out of the way is that the Falcons’ offense is explosive. Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman are two players that jump off the screen. Defensively, they’re fast and do a fair amount of rotation up front to keep players fresh. Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks are the biggest overall threat.

Here’s what Belichick had to say about the Falcons overall:

“I’d say the stamp on the team, the thing that I would notice the most is just the speed, the team speed that the Falcons have,” Belichick said. “They have a lot of fast guys. Defensively they close up space very quickly. Their linebackers run well. Their defensive line, although they have a couple of big, strong, physical guys in there, overall they have usually nine or 10 players on the field that I would say are fast. They’re either as fast or faster than probably what the average speed of their position is in the league. I’d say that’s a big stamp that (Dimitroff) has put on the team.

We saw plenty of matchups against both a fast defense (Colts 2000s) and the Seahawks scheme so I expect the Patriots will have a good idea how to attack them. The Pats certainly have the heavy personnel option to test their physicality, but there are plenty of favorable coverage matchups to exploit as well.

Here are my five other initial impressions of Atlanta:

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Don’t Bet on a Super Bowl 51 Shootout

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Sports Illustrated gave an early preview of their Super Bowl cover this week and as you can see below the headline matches what pretty much everyone has been writing/thinking: SHOOTOUT!

Yes, the Falcons have put up 80 points in their two playoff games combined and broke 38 points seven other times this season. The Patriots are no slouches either, having put up 70 points in their two playoff games. The opening over/under was 58.5, the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, but I wouldn’t go betting the over just yet.

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Patriots will wear white jerseys in Super Bowl LI

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Wearing white jerseys could be a good sign for the Patriots and their fans based on past Super Bowls.

Blue: 2-2

XXXVI (20-17 win over Rams)

XXXVIII (32-39 win over Panthers)

XLII (17-14 loss to Giants)

XLVI (21-17 loss to Giants)

Red: 0-1

XX (46-10 loss to Bears)

White: 2-1

XXXI (35-21 loss to Packers)

XXXIX (24-21 win over Eagles)

XLIX (28-24 win over Seahawks)

Source: New England Patriots will wear white jerseys in Super Bowl LI – New England Patriots Blog- ESPN

Yesterday I held a poll to find out what Patriots Nation preferred for jerseys this time around and it wasn’t surprising the majority picked white, and that’s what they’ll get in Super Bowl LI.

The other good news is that the Patriots were undefeated in white this season, going a perfect 8-0 on the road in them, becoming just the seventh team all-time to do so. So really, what else would you want to wear given that this is another away game? Add in that they have their best win percentage in the Super Bowl in white and it only further confirms this was the way to go.

I think we’re all a little gun shy since wearing blue back-t0-back in Super Bowls 42 and 46, so it’s good news they’ll keep the white jersey train rolling to Houston.

Patriots-Steelers AFCCG Film Review: Defense Edition

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The All-22 came out early this week, quickly squashing my dilemma of reviewing the AFC Championship or moving on to start getting familiar with the Falcons. Overall, this was everything we’ve come to expect this season out of the Patriots defense. They bent at times, but it was near impossible to break them.

The two goal-line stands were key moments in the game and really two sequences where the Patriots defense can hang their hat. They were consistently physical at the point of attack and even when they made mistakes, those mistakes were quickly tackled and the defense was refocused entirely on the next play.

Here’s some thoughts on what else stood out from the defense in the AFC Championship…

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Five Early Pats-Falcons Super Bowl 51 Links

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Well, it was nice to wake up the morning after winning the AFC Championship without the entire NFL world standing outside our window with pitchforks. Yes, it’s still sinking in that the Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Despite the Patriots being the best team in AFC by a considerable margin, you never take these things for granted and I’m going to savor every moment of the next two weeks.

Here’s some things to share and some commentary as the Patriots-Falcons hype has already begun…

1. We’re at that point now where it seems like every time the Patriots win a game, especially a playoff game, a bunch of records fall. Here’s a full list from Patriots.com of all the records that were broken or will be broken in the Super Bowl. My favorites:

  • Tom Brady can tie Charles Haley as the only two players with five Super Bowl rings. Brady will also set the record for most Super Bowls played.
  • Bill Belichick would surpass Chuck Noll with five Super Bowl championships. He will already set the record for most appearances by a coach (10).

2. Predictably everyone thinks SB51 will be a shootout, but the Patriots defense is so sound I think they’ll force Atlanta to work harder for yards than they’ve had to. This chart from PFF sums it up.

3. I always enjoy Andy Benoit’s strategy pieces and he immediately dropped this one on Monday laying out the potential matchups. Here was his general feeling about how the Pats’ defense should approach the Falcons offense.

[W]e see a defense that mostly sticks to straight man or zone, rarely employing hybrid coverages. A defense that, like any, occasionally blitzes a fifth rusher, but far more often is content to rush the usual four. A defense that changes its fronts frequently, particularly against the run, but doesn’t go too far out of its way to disguise them. In simplest terms, the Patriots just line up and play. They rely on sound, fundamental execution. This is how they must approach the Falcons, and it must be done very physically. Line up in straight man-to-man and hit your individual opponent in the mouth. If the Patriots aren’t flagged four or five times for various illegal uses of hands—be it holding, illegal contact, hands to the face, maybe even pass interference—they’re playing too soft.

4. Greg A. Bedard weighed in with his early thoughts on the matchup as well, matching a general sentiment that both teams should move the ball, but it looks like the Pats defense might have a small edge over the Falcons’.

To beat Brady, you have to disguise and change up both the pressure and coverage looks on just about every snap. The Falcons, to this point, have not shown the ability to do that. That will be an important factor in the game. Ryan has trouble with tight, disciplined coverage. With Malcolm Butler locking up either Julio Jones or Mohamed Sanu, and Logan Ryan on the other with safety help, Ryan may have to make a living throwing to the running backs and TEs Levine Toilolo and Austin Hooper. The Patriots have had more issues with supporting actors than those in starring roles. The Falcons have the ability to exploit that.

5. PFF has 10 Stats to Know about Super Bowl 51 and this one is the scariest:

Including the playoffs, Matt Ryan’s passer rating when kept clean is 131.1, the best mark in the NFL by over 10 points.

Any QB can play well when he’s not under pressure, right? While that may be true, the level Matt Ryan is playing at right now when he is kept clean is a level above anyone else in the league. He has been virtually unstoppable this season when he hasn’t been pressured, and if the Patriots can’t apply some heat in the Super Bowl, it’s going to be a long day for their secondary, given the efficiency with which Ryan has been carving up the rest of the league from clean pockets.