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An Independent Patriots Blog

Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens

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There are certain games that define a team’s regular season and this one against the Ravens sure has the makings of a pivotal contest for the 2016 Patriots. There are plenty of reasons one could argue the Ravens are an inferior team, like their 27th-ranked offense or their 3-4 start to the season and struggles on the road.

But here’s the fact, the Ravens know how to play the Patriots. They won’t be intimidated coming to New England, where the Patriots have already lost two games this season. We all thought the 2014 Divisional Playoff game would be a cakewalk, instead the Pats had to dig themselves out of two 14-point holes as Joe Flacco consistently tore them apart until his final game-sealing interception.

Add in the atmosphere of a December Monday Night Football game, the lingering bad blood from the Ravens starting Deflategate and this one should be a classic that will tell us a lot about the 2016 Patriots.

Strap on your helmets for my gameplan…

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Malcolm Mitchell and the myth of Mean Old Tom (Brady)

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It seems the Patriots draft a new wide receiver or two every year.

Every year, it seems Tom Brady and new receiver of the year cannot get on the same page, Brady loses confidence in that receiver, that receiver ends up in everyone’s dog house, and is then cut, traded, or otherwise run out of town.

Early in this season, we saw Malcolm Mitchell look like he and Jimmy Garoppolo were on the same page, with Mitchell being targeted 7 times in 6 quarters, with 3 catches. Mitchell had two more targets from Jacoby Brissett in week 3, with one catch for 27 yards. He showed flashes of potential in his first preseason game before dislocating his elbow.

Based on evidence from the past with rookies AND veterans across several seasons (brief list: Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Taylor Price, Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway) flaming out with Tom Brady, I was cautious with my hope in the Patriots developing a new, young weapon in their outside receiving corp. Sure, all those other guys went on to do nothing else in the league after their Patriots careers, but I wasn’t alone in this fear of yet another flame out. This other guy I know had something to say about it in his own cautiously sarcastic fashion:

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The Beginning of The Season: Week 14 Scouting Report of the Baltimore Ravens

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This season so far has been a typical Pats year for the second half of the BB/TB12 era. A September Stinker, ups and downs with how talented the offense/defense is, hot takes galore on Brady and BB, a clear lead in the AFC East, and an important injury. Now that we’re through all of that muck, the season sort of really begins. The Patriots now have a clear mind of the playoff picture and not that the games before didn’t matter, but we know exactly what is at stake for these games now. The games matter, the teams are better, and the end of the season is closer. Here’s where the season really begins.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Baltimore Ravens, aka, “John Harbaugh and The Rule Changers”

Week 14 vs Baltimore Ravens

Monday December 12

8:30 EST, ESPN

High 30’s, 80% chance, 12 mph winds

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Patriots vs. Rams Film Review: Defense Edition

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This was one of the quickest film reviews I’ve ever done, as the Patriots defense was on the field for just 52 plays, forcing eight Rams punts and coming up with two takeaways. As I mentioned in the Posits this week, the defense has been settling into their personnel and it seems to be helping keep everyone on the same page.

Specifically I wanted to take a look at the third downs where the Patriots had remarkable success, allowing just one conversion on 12 third downs. And yes, it’s also worth taking a look at the 66-yard pass they gave up at the end of the game that ruined any potential records they might’ve broken.

By going through each one we get a better picture for the kinds of coverage the Pats played — Rush three, drop eight in third and longs — and what their pass rush packages looked like.

Here’s how the third downs broke down, along with that one long ugly pass…

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How the 2016 Gronk-less Pats Stack Up to 2012 & 2013

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The news of Rob Gronkowski’s third trip to season-ending Injured Reserve has caused quite a stir within Patriot Nation, and to a lesser extent the entire league. While the news has elicited some experts to declare the AFC suddenly wide open, other analysts have gone the opposite direction, choosing to not sound the alarm quite yet, keeping faith in the greatest quarterback-coach tandem in the NFL’s history to overcome the loss of arguable their most important player (save for TB12).

The Patriots win-loss record without Gronkowski is not great; they are just 14-5 without him in the regular season, and 1-2 in the postseason, which certainly supports the belief that the Patriots cannot win the Super Bowl without Gronkowski. Adding to this narrative is Brady’s statistics with and without the prolific tight end. With a healthy Gronkowski, Brady’s completion percentage is 65.3%, with a 7.9 yards per attempt average and a 103.5 passer rating. However, with Gronkowski sidelined, Brady’s completion percentage dips to 57.3%, while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.

The most alarming measure is his passer rating; it dips over twenty points to just 82.4, which would rank 34th in the NFL this season, behind fellow Patriot quarterback Jacoby Brissett (83.9) and only one spot above Geno Smith. Effectively, Tom Brady turns into a third-string quarterback when Gronkowski is unable to play.

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Patriots Tuesday 10 Pack

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One of my favorite things in life is ending up in a conversation with another Patriots fan who has no idea that I have been faithfully blogging about the team for nine years. That was the case on Monday when I jumped into a conversation with a couple unknowing people at my real job and listened their deeply held beliefs about this Patriots team.

One of them wasn’t feeling the magic this year, the other thought the offense looked terrible against the Rams and that the only hard game left was Miami. The conversation ended before I could interject any of my own analysis, and really they didn’t seem to care, even though I could at least give them some perspective that they both badly needed.

So my frustration from that conversation has spilled over here into the Tuesday 10 Pack, where I vent about the Monday over-reactors as the dust settles from win number 10.

Here we go…

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Pats Posits: Tom Brady, Legend

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The Patriots dominated the Rams 26-10 Sunday, nabbing Tom Brady his NFL-record 201st win and closing out the third quarter of the 2016 season at 10-2.

Of course there’s plenty of #YBITR (yeah but it’s the Rams) disclaimers, but still, the Patriots handled an inferior team at home as we expect them to and looked very much like a balanced contender.

Unfortunately, Gronk wasn’t the last injury buzz kill of the last week, with Danny Amendola (seen leaving on crutches in a walking boot) headlining those who left and didn’t return.

Now, the Patriots face a 7-5 Ravens team that has won four-of-five and always plays them tough, even in Foxborough.

More on that, win #201 and the AFC home field playoff chase with the Raiders in the Posits…

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