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Which Patriots Must Emerge in 2016?

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Now that the Patriots’ 2016 roster is mostly set, at least at the top pending any shocker trades, the same few names keep popping up to me as those who must emerge in 2016. Whether it’s a current hole that must be filled or a long-term role that’s lacking stability, it’s essential that each season new faces rise to the occasion and cement their place as legitimate contributors.

Here’s my list:

Trey Flowers

Patriots Must EmergeThe team has a solid three-man rotation at defensive end, led by Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long, but two of those three are over 30 and all of them will be free agents at the end of the season. Flowers is the most promising of the young trio of backups that also includes Geneo Grissom and Rufus Johnson.

Really, I’d take any one of those three youngsters becoming a significant contributor this year, but finding snaps for more than one in actual game action will be difficult. Flowers was labelled a steal in last year’s draft and we got just a small taste of what he was capable of in limited preseason action. He played just four defensive snaps before being placed on IR in early December.

Meanwhile, Grissom had 131 snaps on defense, recording a sack and three tackles. Grissom was used primarily as an interior rusher early in the season before getting some mop up time at defensive end toward the end of the season. I remain unclear on what his true position is, but his athleticism is certainly not something we should ignore. I’m just not sure he’s going to be a blood-and-guts run-stopping defensive end, and that’s what the future need will be.

Flowers is my favorite of the bunch, the one who seems to fit the defensive end mold of Sheard and Ninkovich the closest, and most important, he’s really tough against the run. An emerging young defensive end who could be paired with a re-signed Jabaal Sheard in 2017 as starters would secure one of the most important positions on the field for the defense. Work in Grissom as a sub rusher and the Pats will have an excellent long-term outlook.

LaAdrian Waddle

I’m starting to feel like I might be beating the Waddle drum a little too loudly the last week since totally discounting him as a factor at tackle in my draft prep. Now he’s my white knight after the Patriots ignored the tackle position in the draft. I won’t say Waddle will emerge as the player I want him to be, but the potential is there.

At one point, he was one of the most athletic and promising right tackles in the game after coming out of Texas Tech and putting together two solid seasons in Detroit before tearing his ACL. If Waddle can recapture the form of those first two seasons he could steal the swing tackle spot from Marcus Cannon this season, and possibly be pencilled in as the starter at right tackle heading toward the 2017 season.

Again, these might be lofty expectations, but I feel like the entire league is headed toward having more athleticism at the right tackle spot, which has traditionally been filled by maybe the worst athlete on the field. We saw Von Miller blazing off the right edge far too much to still believe in the old dynamic of pass rushers attacking your left side and only your left side.

Waddle has plenty working for him if he’s fully healthy, including Cannon’s salary.

Chris Hogan

We saw how good the Patriots offense could be in 2014 when Brandon LaFell gave them a legitimate outside receiver who could pull some pressure away from the Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski inside. Last year, LaFell never regained that form and the Patriots passing offense suffered for it, putting extreme pressure on their key trio of threats and getting all of them injured at various points.

Hogan fits the mold LaFell did coming in and is probably even a better overall athlete that LaFell is. Whether or not his blocking is up to LaFell’s level will remain to be seen, but if Hogan’s a dud, the entire weight of this need will fall to rookie Malcolm Mitchell.

Tom Brady needing to rely on a rookie right out of the gate? Scary. But if Hogan was “always open” in Miami and Buffalo, you have to like his chances of him earning Brady’s trust and blossoming.

Tyler Gaffney

At this point I don’t really know what to expect out of Gaffney, but on paper he has everything the Pats need to round out their running back group. Dion Lewis is coming off an ACL tear. They don’t trust James White to carry the ball. LeGarrette Blount is coming off a hip injury and better served with a complimentary backfield friend. Brandon Bolden is a special teamer who can fill in, but will never be an impact running back. We’ve seen Donald Brown‘s ceiling and it’s not very high.

So yes, everyone else has their issues and Gaffney is the only real unknown who could possibly be seen as an early down back. The Patriots not only made a point to poach him from the Panthers, but by cutting then re-signing him to adjust his contract. If they saw nothing in him they would’ve just cut bait by this point. Just don’t let the highlights below get you too excited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KclqlIkdIc

So Many Free Agents for Patriots in 2017

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The 2016 Patriots will largely resemble the 2015 Patriots, outside of Chandler Jones. Yes, some new faces are certain to emerge while familiar ones might go down, but for the most part the Pats have an incredible amount of continuity from last season. That always bodes well, and given the injuries we saw last season, the Patriots should be a far better team in 2016. And they’ll need to be, given their much tougher schedule.

But looking past this season, there is loads of uncertainty, with 32 players set to hit some form of free agency once the 2017 season starts.

Let’s take an in-depth look at all the decisions the Pats will have to make, because they should start acting sooner than later to prevent a mass exodus.

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Offense

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap

Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending

I don’t want to go back and re-hash my feelings about drafting for the future at RB and RT, but those two positions are lit up far more than I’d like. But let’s be honest, every single guy at those spots could walk and it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Vollmer’s near the end, Cannon is what he is, and none of the running backs, at least at this point, have emerged as long-term building blocks.

Really, Matthew Slater and James Develin are probably the only two real priorities. Yes, they’ll have to add personnel at RB and RT and I wish those replacements could be groomed this season (and who knows maybe they will be, like Gaffney or Waddle), but those are essentially plug and play positions.

Jonathan Cooper is in a fascinating position. He might be the most talented offensive linemen on the roster, but the competition will be stiff at guard. I could see him not making the 2016 team or being their best guard and warranting a significant extension. Impossible to predict at this point.

Sadly, Martellus Bennett will likely be a one-year rental, but we’re used to those so let’s just enjoy him while we’ve got him.

Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Defense

Yellow - URFA, Orange - ERFA/RFA, Blue - Rookies, Red - Injury Issue Pending

Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending

Things are a little more complicated on the defensive side of the ball. Most of us feel Hightower and Collins are must re-sign players and that of this huge list of pending free agents for next season they’ll be the priorities. Let’s just assume this is true, because if even one of them leave we better be praying Shea McClellin is legit.

The bigger problem is at defensive end where the top three guys will be unrestricted free agents. Ninkovich is a big question mark given he’s 32. He’d be amenable to a team-friendly deal, but how much does he realistically have left in the tank. Sheard is in his prime, but if he hits the market there should be plenty of teams will to overpay him, especially if he lights it up as a full-time starter this season.

Long’s the wild card. I’m expecting him to really bounce back this season, but he’s just a year younger than Ninkovich. Usually guys like him who come in for one year in a pass rusher role rack up some numbers then walk. I am very curious how it plays out with Long, especially since he spent so many years on a losing team.

What the Patriots truly need is for Tre Flowers (my favorite), Geneo Grissom and/or Rufus Johnson to emerge into potential starters for 2017. At least one of them. Preferably more. But at least one. Defensive end is a critical position and there are huge question marks there beyond this season.

Finally at cornerback, the Pats are in a good spot with Malcolm Butler as a RFA, but giving him a big extension could come at the expense of Logan Ryan. But I don’t think many will be too concerned about his departure. With a number of promising young corners in the mix, Ryan might not even make it through 2016 at the top of the depth chart.

Yes, there are a ton of free agents but the Pats have just $54 million of their 2017 cap space allotted. So they’ll have plenty of room to keep who they want to keep. Of course it takes two to make a deal, but the Pats’ hands won’t be tied to at least pursue who they want with what they deem reasonable deals.

The Bill Belichick Hoodie Change

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No one was more surprised than I was when Bill Belichick changed his hoodie at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship in Denver. As most of you know by now, I’ve carved out a little niche by tracking Belichick’s gameday attire, and never before had I noted him changing his hoodie like this.

Everyone seemed to notice this bit of minutiae, but at the time I failed to see a clear reason for the switch. But as I dug into the hoodie database a little deeper, an answer became so obvious it seemed like Belichick was digging into my hoodie stats even deeper than I myself ever had!

From Hot Jacket to Sleeved Hoodie

Belichick started the game in the 2013 “Hot” jacket, which I saw as a reasonable second choice in my hoodie prediction article. Belichick was 10-1 last season in the “Hot” jacket, including the divisional round win over the Chiefs. The only loss was the stinker in Miami, the last game of the regular season.

I thought, due to weather, a hoodie was the more likely choice, so my final prediction was the 2015 Blue Nike Hoodie. Belichick was just 1-1 in that Hoodie during the season, the best win (Giants) and the worst loss (Broncos), but it seemed to make the most realistic sense given the weather outlook. It was 46 degrees at kickoff, so it was a bit of a surprise that he stuck with the Hot jacket, that was his go-to last season so it wasn’t a total shocker.

Belichick’s switch at halftime wasn’t into that 2015 Blue Hoodie, but to a never-before-worn 2015 Gray Hoodie, with uncut sleeves. Now, this is the first I’ve mentioned sleeve cutting here. At a certain point it was cutoff sleeves that defined Belichick’s hoodie. But in truth, Belichick has been cutting off the sleeves less of late.

But this was the key finding as I searched for a statistical impetus for Belichick to change his outfit.

The problem with the Blue “Hot” Jacket (which has short sleeves of course) was that Belichick had lost to the Broncos in the 2013 AFC Championship in it. Go further back and you’ll find a number of other losses to Peyton Manning and the Broncos came when Belichick had his arms exposed.

Both 2005’s Week 6 loss and the playoff season-ender to the Broncos in Denver came in the classic Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut off. So did 2005’s first regular season loss to Peyton and that Colts, as well as 2006’s playoff season-ender in Indy. 2009’s 4th-and-2 loss in Indy came in the Blue Reebok Hoodie, and yes, the sleeves were cut off there too.

But then you look at 2003 and 2004, the height of dominance for Belichick and the Patriots over Peyton Manning, and the first two games that jump out are the 2003 AFC Championship and the 2004 AFC Divisional Round. What’s Belichick wearing in both?

Gray Hoodies with the sleeves intact. Just like he changed into for the second half of the 2015 AFC Championship.

Now some of you might say to me, “Deuce, the weather was just getting cold and he grabbed whatever random hoodie the equipment guys packed. Your stats are stupid and he doesn’t give a shit about superstitious bs like this.”

Well, you’re probably right, but with the Patriots trailing 17-9 at halftime after a slow start, is it a coincidence that he happened to pick a the same kind of sweatshirt he hadn’t worn against Manning since the last time he ended him in the playoffs, circa January 2005, ten years ago? Probably yes. BUT MAYBE NOT!

Manning and the Broncos offense would score just three more points in the game, a performance that brought back memories of the near-total shutdown the Patriots pitched in the 2003 and 2004 playoffs against him.

Perhaps if I had broken the code of the short sleeve/long sleeve paradigm when putting my hoodie prediction together, he would’ve gone with an uncut Gray hoodie from the start and the Patriots would’ve played far better in the first half.

Overall, Belichick was 8-3 against Manning when he had full sleeves on. Of the three losses, one was 2005 in a red hoodie (eeek), another came in 2008 with Matt Cassell (doesn’t really count!!) and the final one came against the Broncos in the regular season finale of 2015. With sleeves cut or in a short sleeve against Manning, Belichick was 3-4 overall.

Yes, I blame myself and now the information about the power of full sleeves against Peyton Manning is unfortunately of no use to us.

What good is a Bill Belichick Hoodie Database if it’s not used correctly? At least we now (might) know why he went back to the trusty old gray hoodie in a time of need.

Bill Belichick Hoodie

Current stats through 2015 season.

 

Patriots Rookie Eyeball Test

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Ty Law Super BowlAlmost every year since I started blogging the Patriots I’ve done a rookie eyeball test when the rookie numbers and helmet/facemask choices were finally revealed. This is purely superficial, but as someone who was always obsessed with “look good, play good”, I find it incredibly relevant.

Some guys just don’t look the part – their number doesn’t fit their position or it’s got bad juju (like 17 on the Pats) or their helmet doesn’t fit quite right or they have an unorthodox facemask choice that doesn’t fit their position. Yes, the meaningless options are endless.

As pics started to leak out from rookie minicamp here’s a review of those I could identify from the first batch of pics that Patriots.com released today:

 

Cyrus Jones: #24

First, I love the choice of #24 and was there really any other option for Jones if he considers himself a legit professional cornerback in the National Football League? If he had turned that down for something in the thirties I’d have real concerns about Jones’ long-term viability.

As for his facemask/helmet I’m not totally feeling this right now, and it’s more the helmet because generally this facemask style is the best option for a cornerback. But he’s gone the Josh Boyce route with the helmet and it’s riding just a bit too high and tight for me to truly give him an elite cornerback look grade. I’m worried a stiff arm to the facemask will break his face.

Ty Law, a seen above in SB36, is of course the ideal.

Grade: A-


Malcolm Mitchell #19

I was hoping for #81 with Mitchell but am fine with the consolation choice of #19, which was my own number in high school (hockey, but still). As for the helmet, I’m a little deer-in-headlights at the moment because he looks so friggin’ much like Aaron Dobson.

Though these new helmets are safer and seem to have good range of vision, I just can’t give a receiver an elite grade when they’re wearing this. While his college look was similar, it had some extra bars that took the Dobson feel of it all out of the equation. Maybe we can talk him into going back to that? There’s still plenty of time for a change.

Still, dude looks pretty solid and I’m excited to see what he can do.

Grade: B

 

Jacoby Brissett #7

Was hoping Brissett might go with #9 but #7 will do, it’s sure better than #13 or, Hoodie forbid, #1. This was the same helmet/facemask combination that he went with in college and I’m a little more accepting of this style for a QB than I am for a receiver like Mitchell.

Of course, in a perfect world he’d go with the Brady look, the queen mother of quarterback helmet/facemask looks, but I think the young guys might be scared off of that helmet because concussions or something.

Brady is the standard-bearer for all-time QB looks, not only with his number 12, but with the perfect loose-fitting helmet. That’s probably my biggest problem with bad helmet looks, when they’re too tight and ride too high on their head. Brissett looks pretty good here without much rookie high-hat.

Not perfect, but I’m intrigued.

Grade: A-

 

Joe Thuney #62

Hey look, it’s Ryan Wendell. Just kidding, it’s everyone’s favorite new genius offensive linemen Joe Thuney. Okay, nothing against Thuney here but I’m not feeling this facemask for an offensive lineman, like at all. It’s too short. You’re gonna get popped in the chin, bro.

Logan Mankins is my standard-bearer for interior offensive linemen looks. And if we’re really getting picky I’d far prefer the old Matt Light/Dan Koppen look more than anything. There’s just nothing to get excited about here, not the number nor the questionable choice in facemask. Thuney has work to do to crawl out of the boring, average look category. I’m sure he cares very much about this and will respond accordingly.

Grade: C

 

Not Ted Karras #64

Saving Thuney is Not Ted Karras, who I thought was Ted Karras before getting corrected because most of the rookies haven’t been officially designated on Patriots.com yet and apparently this guy’s got a tattoo that Karras doesn’t have so here we are.

But it doesn’t really matter, whoever this guy is it’s not what I’m looking for. Now body-wise there’s a lot to like about Not Karras but WHAT. IS. THIS. FACEMASK? No no no no. This cannot stand.

A couple years ago Brandon Bolden tried to rock one of these weird new facemasks and I haven’t forgiven him since even though he abandoned it. Not Karras is probably some guy in for a tryout that we don’t know and probably never will.

Grade: D

Danny Amendola Restructures Contract (again)

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Danny Amendola restructures

Danny Amendola has restructured his contract again for the Patriots, as first reported by Mike Garofalo, cementing his status in New England as a key clutch contributor for at least this season, and probably 2017 too (but of course it’s the Pats so you never know).

Amendola’s cap hit was $6.8 million and this should significantly bring that number down. Everyone kind of knew Amendola would be at crossroads this offseason once again, and there were some speculation that he wouldn’t be as amenable to re-doing his deal for the second time in two years.

But alas, Amendola proved that he truly does love being a Patriot and was willing to play ball with his salary to remain in New England. So many players say they just want to win, but when it comes down to the cold, hard cash of it all, they balk and take the biggest pay day they can.

Amendola came to the Patriots under the unfortunate cloud of being called “Wes Welker‘s replacement”. That’s a lot to live up to and was never fair to Amendola. Yes, he has similarities to Welker, and is certainly as good of a returner as Wes was, but Amendola is best suited not as an every down player, rather as a true slot receiver who plays a specific role.

When Amendola started returning kicks and punts in 2014 things really started to click for him as a Patriot. Then he started to get some confidence and began coming through with impossible catches in critical moments in big games.

Where Would Pats Be Without Danny?

Amendola deserves a lot of credit. The Patriots wouldn’t have won Super Bowl 49 without his contributions, including his touchdown pass against the Ravens and his touchdown catch against the Seahawks. But those memorable plays also block out some of the unbelievable regular season catches Amendola has come through with.

2015 against the Jets in Foxboro is one game that comes to mind, where an acrobatic catch by Amendola kept the chains moving in a tight game. Or his should’ve-been-a-TD punt return against the Giants that sparked a comeback win over the big blue for the first time since 2007’s 16-0 game. Or his 2014 game-winning touchdown catch against the Jets that he made while contorting his body in mid-air.

There is no shortage of highlight reel catches by Danny Amendola with the Patriots, that’s for sure.

Amendola’s done everything the Patriots have asked over his three years with the team and he’s battled through various injuries to come through in the clutch time and time again. It’s time to truly appreciate what he brings to the table, and I’m glad to definitely have him back at least for this season.

Picking Patriots Rookie Numbers

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One of my favorite times of year is when Patriots rookie numbers are chosen, along with their helmet/facemask combo, putting the final touches on the new players as professionals. We won’t actually get a shot of the rooks in their new duds for a couple weeks at rookie minicamp, at which point I’ll whip up a full “Rookie Eyeball Test” report (as I’ve been doing for far too long), but for now let’s speculate on what numbers would best fit some of the notable rookies.

Reminder: Seven numbers have been retired by the Patriots: 73 (John Hannah), 20 (Gino Cappelletti), 89 (Bob Dee) 79(Jim Lee Hunt), 57 (Steve Nelson), 40 (Mike Haynes), and 78 (Bruce Armstrong).

Cyrus Jones, college number: 5

Cornerback Numbers Available: 24, 25, 31.

Choice: No question about it, 24 is maybe the best cornerback number there is so Jones should jump on that one. Though if he’s attached to his 5 from college 25 might be his choice. But come on, Ty Law and that guy who went back to the Jets both wore 24, if I were Jones I’d pounce on it.

Jacoby Brissett, college number: 12

Quarterback Numbers Available: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13, 19

Choice: Not likely Tom Brady gives up 12 so the rookie can keep his college number, so I’m going with 9. Second choice would be 4. Disaster choice is 13. Or 1. What kind of a d-bag would pick 1? BB would never let that fly here, especially for a QB.

Malcolm Mitchell, college number: 26

Wide Receiver Numbers Available: 13, 19, 81

Choice: Slim pickings for now, but 81’s an elite receiver number choice so Mitchell should pounce on that one. 84/85/86 could all come available too after cutdown. A switch to 86 could make sense if AJ Derby gets the axe. But hard to do better than 81 and we need someone to finally get that murderer-y scent off it.

Devin Lucien, college number: 15

Choice: With 81 going to Mitchell, let’s give Lucien 19 which keeps him in the teens and it was my high school number so it’s always one of my faves. Just as long as he doesn’t try switching to 17 after Dobson gets whacked. 17 is a wide receiver death sentence number here.

Joe Thuney, college number: 54

Offensive Line Numbers Available: 62, 75

Choice: Not a lot to pick from, though 62 is fine. This is one area where plenty more will come available, like 70 (fka Mankins) and 72 (fka Light).

Vincent Valentine, college number 98

Defensive Line Numbers Available: 99

Choice: Not a lot available at this point, but it doesn’t matter, put this monster of a man in 99 and be done with it.

A Way-Too-Early Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection

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Patriots Roster Projection

Like mock drafts in January, it’s way too early to legitimately project how things will shake out for the Patriots 53-man roster in September, but with so many draft picks once again and so much talent on this roster, it’s a good exercise to figure out where the tightest position battles will be.

Here’s an optimistic (and way too early) stab:

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett: No major surprise here, though if Brady sits the first four games and the Pats have a roster exemption for him, it will at least help avoid a painful cut elsewhere on the roster.

RB (5) D.Lewis, L.Blount, T.Gaffney, J.Develin, B.Bolden: I’m taking the optimistic route here with Gaffney, that he emerges and can take a significant early down role that I hoped would be filled in the draft. Lewis’ recovery timetable is a huge unknown. James White is my shocker cut, but if Lewis is healthy and Gaffney emerges I think White is just too one dimensional and never quite rose to the occasion last year, especially in the AFC Championship. Still, I’d bet they find a way to keep him, but for right here right now he’s hitting the bricks.

WR (6) J.Edelman, D.Amendola, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Lucien, M.Slater: Tough call here on Keyshawn Martin, who the Pats gave a new deal to last year, but I’d be much more excited to see Lucien sneak into that spot. Otherwise, this group is already looking better than last year. Aaron Dobson is finally put out to pasture.

TE (3) R.Gronkowski, M.Bennett, C.Harbor: The lack of a pure blocking tight end here is a bit concerning, but with Bennett in the mix it changes things because he can do it all. They can use one of their OL for the heavy sets if necessary. Crazy amount of talent at the top and Harbor can move around in a number of roles.

C (2) B.Stork, D.Andrews: Wouldn’t be opposed to trading one of these guys, preferably Andrews because of my Stork crush. Two very good young centers.

G (4) S.Mason, J.Kline, J.Thuney, J.Cooper: Again, taking an optimistic view with Cooper, that he re-finds the magic that made him a first round pick. Pencilling him in to start with Kline. Had to choose between Mason and Jackson, just liked Mason’s athleticism a bit more though his size continues to concern me a bit.

T (4) N.Solder, S.Vollmer, M. Cannon, L.Waddle: Could see Cannon getting cut if Waddle beats him out but for now keeping four for depth sake and I think Scarnecchia likes Cannon more than any of us. Fleming isn’t an easy cut, but a necessary one.

DE (4) R.Ninkovich, J.Sheard, C.Long, T.Flowers: Tough cut here of Geneo Grissom, I just like Flowers more and see him as a better physical fit at defensive end while Grissom seems too much of a tweener. Expecting Flowers to have a significant role even in the 4th string spot.

DT (4) M.Brown, T.Knighton, A.Branch, V.Valentine: Holy shit, look at the beef on this line! Feel good about these four. Brown should be the one DT in pure passing situations. Kearse/Kuhn/Vellano are easy cuts.

ILB(2) S.McClellin, J.Freeny: Thank the Hoodie Freeny has been bumped down the depth chart! McClellin will fit in well when the Pats are in their regular (fka “base”) defense, but also rotate in as he has a similar skill set to Hightower/Collins. Rookie Elandon Roberts isn’t an easy cut, and I’m interested to see if Bostic has anything in the tank now that he should be fully healthy.

OLB(2) J.Collins, D.Hightower: Two badass ninjas.

CB (5) M.Butler, L.Ryan, C.Jones, J.Coleman, D.Roberts: Gotta love this group and I’m very excited to get Roberts back into the mix. Wonder if they could use a vet since it’s such a young group, but all five are tough and can play.

SS (3) P.Chung, J.Richards, B.King: Richards’ role could increase this year with the departure of Tavon Wilson, both on special teams and on defense. King is an excellent special teamer and extremely under the radar for many casual fans. Chung just got extended again and could be in for a Pro Bowl-esque season.

FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, N.Ebner: Very good group, same kind of rotation with McCourty and Harmon as last year.

ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona: Hopefully Cardona doesn’t have any Navy responsibilities to attend to. Otherwise rock solid group.

 

Hardest cuts: James White, Cameron Fleming, Tre Jackson, Geneo Grissom, Kamu Grugier-Hill.

Surprises: Tyler Gaffney, Darryl Roberts, Devin Lucien.
Make your own with Pats Picker and share in the comments if you’re not scared. It’s really, really tough at this point. But of course, injuries will make things a bit easier, unfortunately.