Bill Belichick on WEEI 1/27: ‘Really have a lot of respect for Dave [DeGuglielmo]’
BB’s post-mortem on the season. Amazing that just a couple days later he’s already down scouting the Senior Bowl. Does this guy love football or what?
Patriots vs. Broncos AFCCG Film Review
I feel like I finally saw the game for the first time just now, getting a chance to look at the All-22 film. For those of you who were lucky enough to miss it, I came down with a killer stomach bug Saturday afternoon that destroyed me through the night. That made watching the game on Sunday less than optimal.
There was no pregamming. No pump up music or good food or drinks. I could barely muster the strength to coordinate my Patriots outfit for Hoodie’s sake! Nope, spent the game sipping Gatorade and nibbling on saltines, praying that the nightmare unfolding before me was just some kind of fever dream.
Alas it was not. But there was plenty on here to make me sick if I already hadn’t caught whatever Jamie Collins had the middle of this season.
There’s been plenty of great film review already out there, but I had to take a look for myself and most of what has been discussed was confirmed. But here’s what I saw with my own eyes.
First, let’s say I can’t wait to go back to Denver next year even though we have no idea who their QB will be. Every time we go there we kill ourselves with un-Patriot-like football. Football is a game of inches and that was very true in this one.
The Pats just hung in there and kept fighting when it seemed like the game was hanging by a string multiple times. Despite all the negative attention being heaped on everyone this week, this game was winnable in spite of it all.
Yes, Wade Phillips deserves a ton of credit but it was nothing the Pats haven’t see and shredded before. The problem was that they weren’t expecting it, weren’t ready to counter it and once Brady couldn’t get locked in the game was a struggle.
Nothing sums this up better than seeing Julian Edelman wide open on a couple plays yet Brady is forcing it deep to Bolden. Seriously I pray I never have to watch a Brandon Bolden-centric ground game ever again. It’s like Matthew Slater at wide receiver. You’re awesome at special teams. Stick to what you’re awesome at.
Hard to ask for the defense to do too much better than they did. Yes the first drive was gross but also aided by a questionable PI call. Collins blew two coverages that resulted in touchdowns but outside of those two plays there were barely any legitimate big plays made on the defense. Anderson’s 30-yard run in the fourth quarter was the only real breakdown.
All things considered the defense did everything they had to do to let the offense win the game. Take that defensive performance in any other season-ender and the Pats probably win. Could we have used another takeaway? Sure. But they forced punt after punt and only gave up three points after the half. What else can you ask?
Collins and Hightower led the way, but Brown and Branch were standouts as well. The secondary all stayed right with their guy in man coverage and limited YAC. Matt Patricia must be driving himself crazy because the defense was good enough to win despite facing two turnovers and multiple short fields.
Nuggets:
Malcolm Butler’s stop on third-and-1 where he takes off like he’s shot out of a cannon to tackle Anderson for no gain in the third quarter was such a clutch play. Butler deserves every bit of praise he gets now as a #1 corner.
Amendola seemed like he was hurt after every play. Very curious to see what the offseason holds for him.
The troubling thing about the offensive line and likely why Gugs got the axe, was how out of sync they looked. There was no rhythm, especially in the run game. And even when they brought in Fleming to go max protect, Miller blows right by him for the worst sack of the day. Just unacceptable because they looked clueless.
Sebastian Vollmer will be having nightmares about Demarcus Ware, who owned our veteran tackle almost every down. Even at the end, Ware just kept coming and Vollmer just didn’t have the foot speed to compete.
Just too painful to ever watch the failed two-pointer again. Gronk was so so wide open.
Can’t believe how Brady hung in there and just kept fighting after taking the beating of his life. And to think they were just a play or two away from winning this thing is such a testament to Brady and the team’s mental toughness. They went down like champs should go down, swinging to the last.
After a full two days of reflection and taking a calm look at the film the fire has already started for the 2016 season for me. And yes, we get to go back to Denver. With pretty much this entire team coming back the Pats will clearly be the AFC favorites come September, but we all know it’s a win in Mile High that will be the big thing we all want.
Greg Cosell’s Film Review: How Denver’s D dominated the Patriots
Greg Cosell’s Film Review: How Denver’s D dominated the Patriots
Always enjoy Greg Cosell’s breakdowns even when they’re about the season-ender. It’s hard to believe the Patriots would be so slow, or even refuse outright to adjust to what Wade Phillips was doing on defense. They’ve seen it all before. How was there no counter punch to help Brady find a rhythm?
Offseason Day #2: A rough outline of a plan
My Patriots needs as of a month ago haven’t really changed much after the post-season non-fun. Here they are again, with some notes as to why I’ve initially ranked them this way.
- Tackle (Vollmer/Cannon entering last years, always go trenches over skill, high draft)
- Early Down Running Back (mid-round draft, Gaffney potential?, Blount is FA)
- Wide Receiver (Amendola possible cap casualty, LaFell entering last year, Keshawn Martin ceiling? high/mid/low draft)
- Linebacker (middle guy, coverage speed, cut & re-sign Mayo on cheap, draft, FA)
- Cornerback (depth and size needed, re-sign Tarrell Brown? Low draft )
- Tight End (always a need, find ideal Gronk compliment at Y-TE)
- Guard (Are Mason/Jackson/Kline the answer?)
- Defensive End (Sheard/Ninkovich/Jones entering last years)
- Defensive Tackle (always a need)
Here’s how the depth chart currently looks, along with free agents. I starred the priority guys for me. Branch and Mayo have orange boxes signifying their options this offseason.
Here’s a rough outline for a plan this offseason.
Decline: Mayo option
Don’t see much interest out there for Mayo, at least not enough to get him to leave New England even if the Pats offered him a vet minimum type deal after declining his option. Does he have anything left in the tank? Didn’t look like it this year though he started to make some plays down the stretch. Given his favored status with BB I could see him getting one last shot on a team-friendly deal. Either way, LB depth is a priority.
Re-Work/Cut: Amendola, Bostic
Bostic did nothing after the Pats traded for him and is an easy cut unless there were lingering injury issues they’d like to give him a chance to get through. Amendola is an interesting one, due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. They’re still paying for the overpriced contract they gave him two years ago, and had to already re-do it once last season to spread out his hit a little bit. Seems possible he might not return unless he’s willing to do the Pats another favor.
Pickup: Branch option
Pats have an option on Branch that would pay him the same salary as this year: $1.2 million. The $2.75 million cap hit might be a little rich for the Pats, but Branch was consistently good this season and made for a great starting inside pair with Malcolm Brown. Must bring at least him or Hicks back, and Branch is far more affordable.
Extend: Hightower, Sheard, Collins, Butler
Not a lot of priority internal free agents this year but next offseason is brutal so they need to start locking guys up now. Hightower is my top priority, he’s the heart of the defense now and gets just a slight nod over Jamie Collins, who is nearly as important. Sheard was everything we’d hoped he’d be last season, and was playing over Chandler Jones in the playoffs. He should be a long-term building block. Butler should get done before the end of the 2016 season, but for the Pats, who don’t overpay the corner position, it will be interesting to see how they value Butler.
Trade Bait: Chandler Jones
Pats are in a good position with Chandler in that they can just let him play out the last year of his contract, because he still has something to prove. They have the depth to replace him though and that’s why he could be trade bait. A Sheard-Ninkovich-Flowers-Grissom DE group would be okay assuming Flowers builds on how he looked in limited action last summer. Either way, I don’t think Chandler’s with the Pats past 2016.
Priority RFA/ERFA: Coleman, Develin, C. Fleming, King, Siliga, R. Johnson.
Coleman was really underrated in the slot and despite injuries and a concussion came on in the playoffs. They’ll want to keep him around for sure. Develin’s return would really help the struggling run game and give the offense another dynamic they missed this year. Fleming stays cause we can’t cut all the tackles. King was extremely underrated on special teams and could be needed to fill a void that Brandon Bolden/Nate Ebner might leave via free agency.
Priority Internal UFA: Ebner, Fletcher, Brown, Hicks
We can take a shot at Hicks but it seems likely he’ll get more elsewhere after getting that new Patriots smell rubbed all over him this season. Tarrell Brown looked like a starter in training camp and would be the perfect kind of veteran to bring in to the corner mix again rather than trolling for someone new who may or may not get it. Always liked Fletcher and linebacker depth is a need, especially someone like him with good quickness and coverage ability. Keeping Ebner over Wilson for special teams. Wilson replaceable by King, Fletcher.
External FA Positional Consideration: RB, OT, LB, WR
Don’t get too crazy with delusions of big name, high priced guys here with all the internal guys who need to be secured. The Amendola/Mayo/Fletcher/Cannon/Vollmer situations will impact the needs here and must play out first. One name I liked before the draft is WR Mohammad Sanu who has good size and can do a number of different things. Otherwise I’m looking at mid-range vets coming off injuries or sub-par seasons who will be reasonably priced.
Initial Primary Draft (Long-term) Needs: OT, LB, RB, WR, QB
Again, we have to go through free agency first to really get a sense on draft needs but generally the draft is about the long term. These are the positions that need young depth more than anywhere else. And I’m throwing QB on there because it would make sense if you think Brady can get another couple years out of his body past 2017, the last year of his current deal (which is also the last year of Garoppolo’s. At this point, the more young QBs we can groom under Brady the better.
Offseason Day #1: The Patriots Plan
It’s the first day of the offseason which of course means that everyone’s an expert about what the Patriots need to do this season (aside from just get healthy, because let’s be honest, that’s about 75 percent of it).
You have the WEAPONZZZZZ! crowd who think Alshon Jeffery and every other big name free agent wide receiver is the answer, and the ‘blow up the entire offensive line’ crowd is pretty vocal right now as well.
The important thing is to look at the overall big picture and not overreact to one loss that came almost exclusively at the hands of one of the best defenses in football having one of their best games and hitting Brady more than he was his all season.
Solder comes back and I like the offensive line core. You have two good young centers, two young rookie guards who looked promising entering their second year and then Kline should probably be the interior swing guy.
I do wonder about right tackle, because you have to think Vollmer’s best days are behind him even if he can stay at right tackle. As for Cannon I think he’s at best a backup right tackle. Both are entering their final years of their deals and will make a combined $11 million. Very possible at least one gets cut, but both seems scary, and it doesn’t seem like they’re ready to throw Cam Fleming in there any time soon.
So yes, right tackle (preferably someone who’s athletic) is a need, but it’s really one of the easier positions to find. Can they squeeze another year out of Vollmer? I’d be fine to try.
Receiver does feel like another priority but I think this is one area people are way overreacting right now. I don’t think we simply throw LaFell by the wayside because he regressed this year. Let’s remember he dealt with a foot injury all season long and some of his tweets today seem to point to that as a reason why he was less effective.
No harm in giving him a full offseason to get healthy and see if he can recapture the magic. There’s no guarantee anyone else is going to come in and “get it” like LaFell did in 2014.
And of course the “deep threat-ers” are out in force today as well, but they need to play to Brady’s strengths. Amendola could be a restructure candidate again, or could just get cut outright. Edelman will turn 30 this year. They need to add some logs to the wide receiver fire, but I’d focus as much on the smart, shifties as the big, run fasties.
How much of a role is Keshawn Martin ready to take on? Seemed like the Denver game was a chance for him to show something and he didn’t show much. Still, they extended him so they must see some kind of potential. Best case scenario (for him) is that he replaces Amendola in the slot), but I’d kinda prefer to maybe look for some more size inside.
One free agent I really liked coming out who has been getting thrown around today is Mohammad Sanu. Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but I think he’d be a dynamic threat the Pats could use in a number of ways.
Another area to look long and hard at is running back. The Pats had no running game against the Broncos and were completely one dimensional. Blount is a free agent and while I’d take him back I still think he’s better in a 1B closer role. Dion Lewis will be back along with James White so you have to like the receiving back depth. I mean, if Lewis was healthy the Pats would be in the Super Bowl, I have no doubt.
So that leaves a 1A back who can get those early tough yards and loosen things up. Not talking anything crazy, just like what Stevan Ridley did. That could be a draft position. Still curious about Tyler Gaffney too.
Defensively I think the main focus is extending Hightower first, maybe Collins as well. But definitely Hightower and unfortunately that will probably come as a harsh reality to Chandler Jones. I’d re-sign Tarrell Brown after he looked pretty good last summer, but with major paydays coming to the front seven there won’t be much big spending elsewhere on that side of the ball. Coleman and Johnson showed good promise and Ryan/Butler was legitimate starters.
Mayo is likely gone, but I could see him back on a vet minimum kind of deal because he’s not going to have much of a market. Remember he could get some pop back a full two years removed from the torn patellar tendon. Not holding my breath on his resurgence though, so if there’s one position to consider in the upper half of the draft on defense it’s linebacker.
Remember, to turn in the season we turned in with so many guys not only on IR, but walking wounded in almost every key spot, is so so impressive. Maybe some will see that as a cop out or excuse, but the Patriots lost more man games to injury than any other team and still came within a two-point conversion from going back to the Super Bowl. No other team could’ve done that.
With better injury luck next year it’s hard to see who will stand in the Pats way in the AFC.
