REX’S BEST MISTAKE YET
Who knew a 400 pound man could give us all a woody?
“Bent Pinky” Baldinger Rains On The Patriots Parade
I can’t really argue with what Brian Baldinger writes in this article where he basically says the Patriots just aren’t good enough defensively to win the AFC East this year. The struggles of the young defense have been well chronicled here.
But the fact is that despite all the rankings that say the Pats D sucks, they are just one home win away from the inside track of not only the AFC East but a first round playoff bye.
So basically Baldy’s saying the Patriots will not win this game, because if they do pretty much everything he says in this article will be out the window. Of course, the ‘how deep can the Pats go in the playoffs’ part of it will remain to be seen.
The thing is that we have seen glimpses here and there throughout the season. The big interceptions against the Chargers, Colts and Lions are easy to recount. But this Patriots did force the vaunted Ravens offense to punt THREE times in overtime.
There is potential for this team, but still the pundits harp on how much the Patriots require a dominant edge rusher. While this indeed could be the final piece that gets put into place in the 2011 draft, we still don’t know for sure what Jermaine Cunningham’s ceiling is. He may not have sacked Peyton Manning but he got just enough pressure in a key moment to force an inaccurate throw that James Sanders picked off and sealed the game.
It’s hard to always quantify a defense by the statistics. Much of the Patriots defensive stats are skewed due to them having to defend sizable leads. I know everyone hates the “prevent” defense (which is really more of a soft zone that funnels plays to the middle of the field to keep the clock running), and while it has certainly been a little hairy at times this year, the strategy has worked to the tune of 9-2.
I don’t argue that Baldinger is wrong in his assessment of the Patriots defense, I only say it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they put it together in the next five games. As Michael Lombardi says, young teams can practice hard and improve over the course of the year. If that’s true then we definitely haven’t seen the best of the Patriots defense yet.
Schlereth: The Patriots Can’t Play Smashmouth
Here’s Mark Schlereth’s take on the Pats – Jets.
* ESPN NFL analyst Mark Schlereth: Jets over Patriots. There are a lot of defensive questions with that Patriots team, but offensively, they are a rhythmic offense. They are not a team that can line up and play smash-mouth with you. If they are off rhythm for even a minute you’re going to have troubles. I like the cornerbacks of the New York Jets to get them off rhythm.
Personally I think the Patriots can play smash mouth and I know for a fact that this Patriots blog can play it.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think much, but everyone else picks the Patriots to win.
Let’s Get Historical with the Patriots Defense and Third Down
People are probably sick of me harping on the Patriots third down defense but today I give some historical perspective and show it’s not unprecedented for a team that stinks on third down to win the Super Bowl.
To give some starting context the range of third down percentages generally run from 30% (really good) to about 50% (really bad). Of course the numbers some times skew outside that range but in the big picture sense 90% of the NFL defenses will fall in that range in any given season.
Here are the Patriots third down percentages through the last decade:
- 2001 – 37% (15th)
- 2002 – 43% (26th)
- 2003 – 34% (7th)
- 2004 – 39% (21st)
- 2005 – 42% (29th)
- 2006 – 26% (8th)
- 2007 – 34% (4th)
- 2008 – 44% (26th)
- 2009 – 37% (12th)
- 2010 – 51% (32nd) (thru 11 games)
To put 2010’s number in even more perspective, the 31st ranked team (Buffalo) is ahead by 6 full points points (45%). Take 6 percentage points off the Bills’ score and they’d be ranked 18th! The Pats are 32nd by a mile.
In the years the Patriots have gone to the AFC Championship game they were 4th, 7th, 8th, 15th and 21st. So it does seem like a good third down defense does correspond somewhat to a Super Bowl contender.
But the Patriots are at the dead bottom right now. And there isn’t necessarily evidence that it’s getting better if you look at the Patriots performance on third downs over the course of the season. It has been consistently inconsistent.
The difference has been key interceptions at key times. Getting turnovers is always nice, but sometimes just forcing an incomplete pass is pretty good too.
Interestingly enough there was a team that won a Super Bowl recently with the lowest ranked third down defense in the NFL. The Colts won a Lombardi Trophy (Peyton Manning’s only one, btw) in 2006 getting off the field just 47% of the time on third down.
So it’s not unprecedented, but for New England to make noise in the playoffs they must continue to force timely turnovers and on the biggest stages when it’s all on the line. Do the Patriots have the playmakers who can make those championship caliber plays?
We’ll know a lot more after Monday night.
Dial something up, Matty P.
Say hello to the newest Patriot, Eric Moore. Special teams, with OLB/Pass Rush potential. Sorry Pierre Woods!
https://www.patspropaganda.com/say-hello-to-the-newest-patriot-eric-moore/
