PatsPropaganda :: Ranking Patriots’ Preference For AFC Wild Card Playoff Outcomes
Here’s my take on the Patriots’ rooting guide this weekend, including the odds of how likely the four different outcomes are. Oh boy, the playoffs start tomorrow!
Pats Posits: Just Because Edition
Per my earlier post of the SB49 Sound FX episode, it’s starting to feel like the playoffs are coming and I’m getting fired up. Probably played “For Those About to Rock” and “Sunday Bloody Sunday” a little too loud on my way into work this morning, and we’re still nine days away from the 2015 Patriots season actually starting.
One of the things getting me fired up was listening to Felger and Mazz for Bedard’s appearance this week. This is the only time I’ll listen to Felger and Mazz for reasons like Mazz pumping the brakes on Malcolm Butler all season long only to name him his number one star for the season on this episode. But what really got me fired up was Felger’s pressing Bedard to choose whether the 2015 Patriots underacheived or just didn’t have as good of depth as the he’s been led to believe. Felger kept hitting “they lost four of their last six” over and over and even Bedard was getting frustrated.
Had I not been listening to it after the fact I might’ve been tempted to call in. In Felger’s black and white sports world it has to be one or the other, but what he leaves out is that this was not the same Patriots team for the last six weeks of the season. Every single one of those games they were missing someone new. Gronk, Hightower, Vollmer, Easley, Blount, McCourty, Chung, the list is long and distinguished.
How can you just lump those games all together when each one had significant new challenges?
Here’s the bottom line – the Patriots lost more man games that any other team in the NFL and still finished 12-4. Yes, they had 14-point leads in two of those losses and had some bonehead play calls and strategy, but name me another team that would ever call a 12-4 season “underachieving”.
Or name me another team that would be anywhere close to competitive with their third-string right tackle starting at left tackle. Yeah, let’s just put Brady back to pass 50 times with Cameron Fleming protecting his blind side. What could go wrong?
Felger and Mazz know what their doing so I don’t often take the cheese, but this is one time his dismissiveness really got me fired up. So yeah, whatever. You do you, guys.
Another bit of news this morning that excited me was the announcement that Peyton Manning will be the Broncos starter for the playoffs. I love it. And yet there are plenty of Broncos fans thinking this is the year Manning will take them to the promised land.
Nevermind his playoff history, nevermind how bad he looked at the start of the season when he should’ve been healthy, nevermind he’s still not fully healthy, nevermind the weather in Denver could severely limit his already limited game, nevermind he doesn’t really fit Gary Kubiak’s offense, nevermind his lack of arm strength basically makes Emmanuel Sanders nothing but a deep decoy, nevermind all of it. This is the year Peyton will get it done!
Gameplanning for Peyton is simple for the Patriots and actually helps their defense. They can stack the box against the run and honestly their running game scares me more than anything. You take away the short throws and force Manning to beat you on deep passes. I don’t know if he can do that anymore in perfect conditions, much less if there’s some kind of bad weather on game day.
I hated losing homefield at the time, but now the Broncos are almost assured to play the Steelers or Chiefs, two teams that will give them major problems. I’ll be shocked if we don’t see Brock Osweiler at some point, whether the Broncos are in a hole or it’s just a terrible weather day.
So yeah, I’m starting to get playoff fever… (via Super Bowl XLIX Sound FX: Brady, Edelman, & Jones – YouTube)
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)
https://www.patspropaganda.com/so-yeah-im-starting-to-get-playoff-fever-via/
PatsPropaganda :: Patriots’ Super Bowl Dreams Come Down to the Health of Two Players
PatsPropaganda :: Patriots’ Super Bowl Dreams Come Down to the Health of Two Players
Last week I wrote about the importance of Chandler Jones to the Pats in the playoffs and I still think he’s the key guy if they’re going to win the Super Bowl. But if Edelman and Hightower are shells of their usual selves they might not make it out of the first round.
RB LeGarrette Blount: The reality is the Pats are in phenomenal cap shape and have no pressing free agents to deal with at all. They are uniquely positioned to keep crushing it. Blount got hurt before contract talks could begin and bringing him and Dion Lewis back from injury isn’t a bad idea – neither will break the bank – while I am sure they’ll draft a back as well. This selection speaks to how well this team is put together for 2016 … and beyond.
https://www.patspropaganda.com/rb-legarrette-blount-the-reality-is-the-pats-are/
2015 Patriots Stat Roundup
One of the things that I think gives this blog a unique perspective is the long-term stats that I focus on. This time of year, when the 2015 Patriots’ regular season is in the books, I love seeing how this team stacked up against the rest of Belichick’s teams.
Despite an incredible amount of injuries this season, the Patriots didn’t drop off a whole heck of a lot from last year’s Super Bowl team. They certainly had an easier regular season schedule, but despite all the key departures of last offseason plenty of guys stepped up and that bodes extremely well for the direction of the franchise.
Let’s start with the DVOA of the offense, defense and special teams.
As you can see, this year’s team and last year’s we almost identical as far as the efficiency is concerned. One major place the Pats had significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball was:
It shouldn’t be surprising that the season Belichick finally got a legit third defensive end (Jabaal Sheard) and had a pure interior rusher (Dominique Easley) for most of the season, that the third down numbers were top 10.
Here’s a closer look at how the Pats did against individual receivers:
We can’t really say these rankings reflect directly on Butler or Ryan as they weren’t always on specific threats.
The real concern I have, and it’s reflected here, is at the slot corner position where Leonard Johnson had a huge target on his back the last two games. This also follows how teams generally beat the Belichick philosophy of taking away what you do best. That results in guys like David Tyree or Chris Matthews (SB49) having big games. That could be where the playoff games are won or lost if Johnson (or Justin Coleman) isn’t up to the challenge.
Finally we look at the “Bend Don’t Break” chart:
Lots of interesting stuff happening here, starting with the Yards-per-Drive taking a major step forward, while Turnovers-per-Drive dropped to their worst rate in a decade.
The Patriots have had fewer interceptions the last five years in a row since 2010: 25-23-20-17-16-12. Yet the defense has gotten better in each of those years generally. What gives? Why would getting less turnovers and specifically interceptions be the sign of a better defense?
I relate it to the shift away from zone defense to more man coverage. The Pats D of the early ‘10s didn’t have much talent, so instead they played conservative zone defense, waiting to break on poorly thrown balls or deliver big downhill hits that forced fumbles.
Now, the secondary is in man coverage, so instead of sitting back and waiting to pounce, they’re running around tracking their receivers. It’s a lot easier to drop into zone then break on the pass than it is to be running stride-for-stride with a receiver, turn around, find the ball and pick it off.
All of this points to positive trends with the Patriots defense and I give the front seven a lot of credit. They’re as deep and talented now as they were during the first three Super Bowls, and good news, everyone of importance comes back next year.