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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills

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It’s been just two months since the Patriots last saw the Bills and put 500 yards up on them, but now the Patriots are a different team, especially on offense, and must find new avenues to deal with Rex Ryan.

The good news is that Sebastian Vollmer
, Marcus Cannon
and Tre Jackson all returned to practice this week, meaning the Pats could have a healthy offensive line for the first time since losing Nate Solder in Week 5. Since Solder went down it’s been a tackle apocalypse and we certainly don’t want to keep rolling out the makeshift offensive line against a defensive front like Buffalo’s.

The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season over the Jets and have won two-straight. They’re currently 3-1 in the division and very much in the thick of the wild card hunt, so this will be a confident team that should play loose.

Here’s the gameplan to put them down in front of a national audience.

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Offensive Gameplan

Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis accounted for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills in the first game and now the Pats have to figure out a way to replace that production. The biggest issue is that when you look back over the years at how the offense has faired against Rex Ryan’s defenses, it’s the shifty receivers, tight ends and running backs doing most of the damage in the passing game.

Outside receivers like Randy Moss, Brandon LaFell and even Aaron Dobson are just complimentary pieces in these gameplans usually. What gets it done against Rex’s scheme are the quick man-beaters and I wonder how the Pats can adjust without their most reliable man-beater.

The Bills will likely overcommit to take Gronkowski out of the game. Which means LaFell, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin will have to step up and play bigger roles.

By the same token, the Pats must find some passing production with their running backs. They didn’t do much with James White or Brandon Bolden against the Giants, but this gameplan is going to require them to be involved. The Bills are 32nd in the NFL covering running backs by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They must be attacked there.

The Pats ran the ball just 15 times in Week 2, a sign of respect for the Bills’ defense, but with reduced passing weapons will they be forced to feed LeGarrette Blount a bit more? Blount was just coming off his one week suspension in Week 2, and that could’ve been a factor as well.

Still, this is Rex Ryan and we know how he will attack Brady and it’s often effective. Their corners Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore are playing very well right now, and you have to wonder if one of them sees significant time on Gronk, likely Gilmore.

There’s no question LaFell and Amendola are the big keys if the Bills are actually able to take Gronk away. But the two guys I’m more interested in are Dobson/Martin and Scott Chandler. Dobson intrigues me with his size, but no one knows for sure if he or Martin is higher on the depth chart at the moment.

Yes, the Pats lose a significant player without Edelman, but what they’ll be forced to evolve to is a bigger lineup. This could be the game we’ve all been waiting for from Chandler. 

But even if it’s not him, someone is going to have to step up and play a bigger role, especially on third down. If I was Rex I would double Amendola and Gronk on third downs and force Brady to go anywhere else.

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Defensive Gameplan

The Bills moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive in Week 2 with the Pats playing their usual Cover-1 Man defense, but then the Pats shifted to a Cover-3 for most of the rest of the game and it shut the Bills down until they started letting Tyrod Taylorout of the pocket.

Yes, the BIlls had three touchdown drives with some explosive plays to make the game appear closer than it was. Still, those plays are concerning and should give the Bills more confidence coming into this one than they might’ve had if the Pats kept the throttle down when they were up 37-13.

The Patriots do prefer man defense, so it will be interesting to see if they start out immediately with the Cover-3 coverage that was successful for them. With mobile quarterbacks it’s often better to be in zone anyway since all the coverage defenders aren’t totally consumed with their receiver, allowing the quarterback to make a break for it when he sees an opening.

For that same reason expect a steady and disciplined pass rush designed to keep Taylor in the pocket with one spy dropping off the rush and mirroring him.

But the biggest aspect of the Bills is their run game, ranked #1 by Football Outsiders DVOA and 2nd overall in rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ run defense has been outstanding in recent weeks after being a big question mark early in the season and are currently ranked #1 in rushing yards allowed but only 12th in DVOA. This is likely where the game is won or lost and will definitely prove whether or not the Patriots’ run defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL.

Shut down McCoy and Williams, and force Taylor to beat you from the pocket on long third downs. That’s the recipe for success.

One other interesting area is the Bills are just behind the Pats, ranking 6th in turnover differential. The Patriots often rely on turnovers and if the Bills play as safe with the ball as they have been in recent weeks they might hang around until the end.

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Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Easily a cliche that could be used every week, but this week it’s an essential key given the run game is the lifeblood of the Bills offense. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch have been outstanding in recent weeks, as have the other rotational DTs. This week we’ll see just how good they really are.

2. Brady-to-Chandler: With Gronk likely doubled and Amendola likely to be locked in a tough matchup with Darby, the Pats must find another reliable option to carry them to January. Scott Chandler has been just a bit out of sync with Brady so far, hitting a few good plays, but also missing some. Chandler could be the forgotten man in Buffalo’s gameplan, opening the door for a breakout game against his former team.

3. Jame White, Now is the Time: For similar reasons to the matchups above, and the Bills’ struggles to cover running backs in the passing game, this is a good time to see what we have with James White. He was solid in a limited role against the Giants, but I’d love to see him get thrown into the fire against the Bills. He might very well make some noise.

4. Disciplined Rush: If they’re stopping the run, the next step is to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and few teams have the kind of discipline to do so like the Patriots do. The Pats shut down Taylor last time until he started getting out of the pocket and making plays downfield. Containing him is vital.

5. Win: Always the fifth key because it’s all that matters, a win here would essentially seal the AFC East title and it’s not even December yet. But most important is finding out how the offense will evolve now without Edelman. They need another threat to step up to stress the defense. Whether it’s White, Chandler, Dobson or Martin who will have Brady’s trust? Then, when Edelman gets back for the playoffs, the Pats will be even deeper and more difficult to stop.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 9

Thursday Patriots Regroup

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Few things to talk about this morning as we get ready for the last Patriots football-free weekend until the bye week (hopefully).

Cannon/Vollmer

Headline news of Wednesday was the return of Cannon, Vollmer and Jackson, reinforcing an offensive line that badly needed it. Now we wonder how they organize things now. They can reevaluate who goes to LT. Remember we didn’t see much at all of Cannon there for any length of time. Feels like a chance to reset and move forward. But props to Cameron Fleming for doing a solid job being thrust from practice squad, to third tackle to right tackle to starting left tackle. The second-year player handled it as well as could be expected all things considered.

Jamie Collins

Holy Hoodie, what the hell did Collins contract? Ian Rapoport said yesterday that he’s over the illness, now he’s just being nursed back to health. You can imagine how much weight (and strength) he lost, but it seems like there’s still a chance he will play Monday night. All things being equal I hope they don’t rush him back, but his absence has certainly leveled off Dont’a Hightower’s play as well.

Injuries

Seriously though, remember at the bye week when the whole team was healthy and it seemed like we’d never lose again? Well it still seems like we MIGHT never lose again but it’s hard to remember a worse injury year outside of 2013 and even then I think this one is in the running. Starting left tackle, two biggest playmakers on offense, and probably the most talented defensive player. Now it’s been almost every week they lose someone important for a significant period of time, if not the year. Can we just have one game without an injury please?

Coleman/Melvin

Part of the Belichick defensive philosophy is to take away what you do best, which often means the key matchups when playing the Patriots are third and fourth receivers against the slot cornerback. So that’s often where the Patriots live or die. They lived in the Super Bowl because (except for one miracle catch) Malcolm Butler came on for Kyle Arrington and played well. So when looking down the road, it’s teams with great receiver depth (or even just a third/fourth receiver with great speed or size) that will give the Pats problems. The Bengals are one team that concerns me for this reason.

Chandler Jones

I was a little too harsh on Chandler in my initial reaction to the game. Overall I think he played pretty well against the Giants. Eli deserved more credit because he did well targeting receivers not named Beckham or Randle. Still, the third down defense concerns me and I’d like to see big games this week from Easley and Sheard.

Malcom Brown

The rookie just keeps getting better each week, standing out at the end of the Giants game with great effort and pursuit forcing Eli to take a seat on third down at the goal line. Brown has good lateral quickness and is very stout. He’s really embraced the interior role and along with Alan Branch is doing a great job against the run. I’d love to see more of Easley and Brown together as the last two first-round picks. Seems like they’d be a good compliment to each other.

Vince Wilfork

We were scared the run defense would struggle without Vince, but it’s actually been better. I wonder if part of the reason is because they’re not running one guy into the ground any more. Instead they use a solid four-man run stopping rotation inside, along with mixing and matching Easley.

Dane Fletcher/Chris Jones

 The Pats have until next Wednesday to activate Fletcher and Jones off of PUP and I wonder what they will do. For Fletcher the need is obvious if he’s the same player he was a couple years ago. If he is, he might be the third best linebacker behind Hightower and Collins immediately. As for Jones I look at him more in the Easley role. Perhaps he unseats Ayers or Siliga, but both have better size. Not sure how he’d fit given the great tackle depth we have right now.

He’s Not D-Edelman

The big question this week is how the Pats make up for the loss of Edelman and how Keshawn Martin/Aaron Dobson/Chris Harper might fit into things. While I do think Amendola remains as the slot/third receiver, the important thing as I see it is not who plays the second WR spot with LaFell, but who makes plays on third downs. That was where Edelman was huge and I think we should expect Amendola to be out there on every third down passing situations.

Rex n’ Bills

Rex just won’t die. Here he comes once again, full of confidence after beating the Jets and ready to give us another game. Without Edelman, this game is a huge challenge and I think the Bills will be ready. They finished strong against the Pats earlier this year.The key will be the offensive line and how well they pick up Rex’s schemes. But when Rex drops eight into coverage who will get open like Edelman does so well?

The Patriots Aren’t Going Undefeated (and it’s a good thing)

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Does it go against my homer blog motif to say that the Patriots aren’t going undefeated? After 2007 I’m surprised if anyone still wants to. All anyone did was complain for seven years about the 16-0 banner, and now people are endlessly debating doing it again?

I get that it’s a talking point every season, especially for a team that hits 9-0, but realistically the Patriots are going to lose at least one game, and probably to a team that no one really expects.

No one thought the 2007 Patriots would lose to the Ravens but they should have. And really, a loss like that would’ve alleviated some pressure and probably would’ve helped the Pats get over the hump against the Giants in the Super Bowl rematch. Think about that. No pressure-packed season finale. Eli and Brady probably sitting out. The Giants getting no bead on what the Patriots were doing. Etc.

Obviously that was a specific opponent and things just happened to work out that they met again in the Super Bowl, but if you don’t care about hanging a 16-0 banner again what does one loss matter as long as it doesn’t cost a playoff seed?

The Patriots are not a perfect team. Injuries have cemented that and though Vollmer and Cannon returned to practice this week, it’s still very possible the offensive line have an off game that even Brady can’t overcome.

The third down defense has been the weak link for the defense in recent weeks, and though a lot of their struggles have been overstated, if they continue to be up around 50% on third down it won’t be long before a team makes them pay for it.

I’m not trying to rain on the Patriots parade, I prefer to be leading it, but I also think if 2007 taught us anything it’s the value of a loss. Of getting some weaknesses exposed. Of getting dragged through the media wringer a bit instead of only hearing how great you are and what your chances are of going 16-0.

There’s a good chance that loss is coming. And whatever weaknesses are exposed or revealed doesn’t suddenly mean that Patriots still aren’t Super Bowl contenders. We might have learned more about the Patriots in their last loss to the Packers than we did in most of the games last season. But it was also apparent that the mistakes were correctable and even on an off day in a tough place to play against one of the best teams in the NFL, they still hung tough and didn’t give up a second half touchdown.

Those are the games where you learn the most about your team. Not by blowing the doors off someone like the Redskins every week.

The Patriots will feel the impact of losing Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman at some point, but that will only help them evolve new methods of attack, methods that will be needed to take down the best teams in the playoffs.

Whenever it happens just remember, losses are a good thing for a team like ours.

Patriots vs. Giants All-22 Review – Offense Edition

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Got a chance to look at the offensive side of the ball on Tuesday, albeit briefly and on my iPhone but I picked up a few interesting observations to pass along.

– I thought Brady had an up and down game. There were some great throws. There were some that were off that he usually makes. And there were some bad mental decisions he usually doesn’t make. Still, the Pats won the game, but he doesn’t seem entirely lights out right now whether it’s due to the offensive line, the loss of Edelman/Lewis, or what. The bomb to LaFell was the best deep ball he’s thrown since last year’s GWTD vs. the Ravens to LaFell. The TD to Gronk was nails. The goal line interception is a throw he makes, like in the Super Bowl to LaFell for instance. 

– Now Brady has to face a Rex Ryan defense without his best anti-Rex receiver and a rag tag offensive line. If ever there was a week to get Cannon and Vollmer back, this would be a good one.

– James White didn’t flash like Dion Lewis did but he was solid in a limited role. They certainly aren’t ready to thrust him into the fire. Rather they’ll work him in and he’ll go off in one of these random late-season games. He blocked well and came through with a clutch catch in the fourth quarter that everyone seems to be forgetting about.

– Amendola played another heck of a game, sparking the team yet again with a  big play (punt return) then making the clutch catches at the end that Edelman usually does. I’m excited to see what he does in an expanded role over the last seven games.

– The offensive line competes hard, but they can’t avoid some tough breakdowns at times. All of them had instances of missed blocks and failed assignments. Again, Cannon and Vollmer asap please.

– I continue to believe Blount is better served in an early rotation as he never really got fully going against the Giants. I don’t know if there’s really an answer to that now with the roster decimated, but if they can’t get some quality carries out of Bolden or White, the run game could be vulnerable.