PatsPropaganda

Here we go, another playoff run begins for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s Patriots as time slowly runs out on their championship window, and it’s hard not to think this is the best shot the Pats have had at taking home the Lombardi Trophy since 2007.

First, the Ravens come to Foxborough, a team that needs no introduction. As I wrote two years ago, the Pats-Ravens rivalry has become the major piece of the second half of the Brady/Belichick reign.

Few will argue that the Ravens weren’t the better team in each of the last three playoff games, even though the Pats escaped with 2011’s AFC Championship. Chalk that one up to homefield advantage that was secured in the regular season, so it was more than just luck, as some have labelled that win.

Still, the Pats caught some major breaks, just like the Ravens did in 2012 with key injuries to Rob Gronkowski pre-playoffs and Aqib Talib in the first quarter of the game.

As I’ve hit on all week, these teams are much different now than they were two years ago, the last time they met in the playoffs. The Pats are more talented and healthier than they’ve been in the previous playoff clashes.

What do the Pats need to do to get a win and move on to their fourth-straight AFC Championship game? Here’s the gameplan:

Offensive Gameplan

We must start up front because the biggest key of the game will be to contain the Ravens pass rush, led by Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, while Pernell McPhee and Haloti Ngata can be problems in the middle.

The return of Dan Connolly should help after he missed time at the end of the season. The Pats have rookie Bryan Stork at center, and two former centers in Connolly and Wendell next to him. This kind of experience and ability to set the protections, along with Solder and Vollmer on the edges, should help decipher the Ravens’ pre-snap disguise.

Expect Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees to use similar tactics to Rex Ryan – overloading one side, then blitzing the other, dropping almost everyone into coverage, etc. throughout the game.

The Ravens’ number one goal will be to get Brady out of rhythm early. The offensive line must be on their game, because as I’ve mentioned endlessly, when the Pats lose in the playoffs it’s because Brady is under early and constant duress.

So how to attack the Ravens? Many have called for quick pace via the no huddle. There is certainly merit to this approach, especially against the Ravens.

NE has run no-huddle 7% of snaps in ‘14. BAL D has faced no-huddle 21% of snaps in ’14. NE has no run-huddle 28% of last 7 games vs. BAL.

— Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL)

January 8, 2015

However, trying to do this without establishing any kind of ground game would be a mistake in my opinion, and could get the Pats out of their comfort zone.

In 2013’s regular season matchup, the Patriots made a point to run LeGarrette Blount at the edges early to take some of the steam out of Suggs and Dumervil, before turning to Stevan Ridley up the middle.

While I expect the Pats will run their share of spread and no-huddle to take advantage of the suspect Baltimore secondary, they should still aim some runs at the edges, especially at the undersized Dumervil. Last year, the Patriots ran for 142 yards against this defense.

They should also pick their spots with the no huddle, but I’d very much prefer to avoid it on third-and-shorts, a critical area that has been a weak point on offense this year. There are times to put the peddle down, but I believe the no huddle is best used in spurts when they’re gaining momentum.

Ravens middle linebackers CJ Mosely and Daryl Smith run well and could cause some problems in coverage on Rob Gronkowski, but Gronkowski is still Gronk and will make his share of plays. 

In 2013, the Ravens had no answer for Julian Edelman, who had 7 catches for 77 yards and drew a couple of big penalties. He should be a focus of the Ravens’ gameplan, but can the Ravens afford to match receivers with their patchwork secondary? Against the Steelers they reverted to simply playing sides and the result was their best defensive performance of the year. 

The focus on Edelman and Gronk should open things up for breakout receiver Brandon LaFell, who brings an element of size on the outside that Baltimore hasn’t had to deal with previously with the Patriots’ offense. I expect LaFell to be a key.

If the Patriots pass protection comes to play, the offense will make plays no matter how the Ravens choose to defend them, it’s really just a matter of the offensive line not laying an egg against the Baltimore pass rush.

Defensive Gameplan

It’s been fun this year watching how Belichick chooses to use his talented cornerbacks to match up with various receivers.  There’s been plenty of speculation this week, with most generally feeling Darrelle Revis will draw Steve Smith.

As for Brandon Browner, some see him on Torrey Smith and I think there is some merit to this, despite Browner not having great recovery speed. Really what the Pats would need from Browner is to destroy Smith off the line, something Smith has trouble recovering from, then letting an over-the-top safety help on any deep shots. 

The other benefit of this is keeping Browner from worrying about catching up to Smith downfield, a spot prime to draw a pass interference call on an underthrown ball – this is something Joe Flacco excels at.

The X-factor is Owen Daniels. The Pats have struggled covering tight ends this year, and while part of it is avoidance of Revis/Browner, Patrick Chung just doesn’t excel when asked to man-cover a guy that is significantly taller than him.

The second safety spot is an interesting one this week. Stopping the run is critical and that’s where Chung excels in Cover-1. He’s a physical tackler and sets the edge well. However the Pats played a lot of Cover-2 Man last time against the Ravens to take away the deep shots, so they’ll have a choice to make.

Perhaps what makes most sense is to play Chung early to keep their running game from getting going, then sub in Harmon on the back end for more Cover-2 looks in the second half.

Up front is where New England needs to win the game. Baltimore has injury issues on the offensive line that has required some juggling, including moving their best offensive lineman, Marshal Yanda to right tackle. Left tackle Eugene Monroe did practice this week so he could go, but even if he does, or if undrafted rookie James Hurts fills in again, Chandler Jones has a favorable matchup from his right end spot.

Vince Wilfork was absolutely dominant in 2011’s AFC Championship and has a good chance to be that player again on Saturday. As MMQB’s Andy Benoit pointed out this week, the Steelers made a concerted effort to eliminate Baltimore’s run game by lining their nose tackle up right over center Jeremy Zuttah. The Pats will do the same with Wilfork.

Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower have elevated to a new level this season, and their double A-gap pressures have been a key playcall since the Denver game. They could have a big day and will be used in their usual variety of ways – blitzing, dropping, covering – they do it all and do it all well.

Stopping the run and then the deep shots are the two big keys against Baltimore, but the Pats have better pieces to do so than they’ve had in many years. Winning in the trenches is key this week, and expect a rested and healthy Chandler Jones to show up early and often.

Points of Emphasis

1. Attack the OL -For all the talk about Suggs and Dumervil, the Pats talented front seven going against a suspect Baltimore offensive line hasn’t gotten much attention. But make no mistake, the Pats have the players who can exploit this weakness and will do so in a variety of creative ways, including linebackers blitzing the A-gaps and sliding Chandler Jones inside. The Pats must dictate with their front seven and put the pressure on Flacco early and often. Stopping the run is a priority but this game should come down to the passing aspect and letting Chandler, Big Vince, Ninkovich, Hightower and Collins feast on Flacco flakes.

2. Attack the Secondary – The Ravens defense played out of their mind last week against the Steelers to the surprise of just about everyone. Do they have another one of those games in them? The Patriots will give them a stiff test, filled with disguise and movement. Shane Vereen could be a huge X-factor in the passing game, but I believe it will Brandon LaFell who comes through in some clutch moments. 

3. Protect Brady – Yup, it’s the key pretty much every week, but moreso than ever for these playoff games. The Patriots offensive line isn’t as bad as many are making them out to be this week and all of them, outside of Stork, have plenty of experience against the Ravens. They must must must be on their game if the Pats are to win this game, or any other one going forward. Three games, guys. Three games. Block like your million-dollar job depends on it, because it does.

4. Get the Lead – This is vital. A lead keeps the offense unpredictable, with all play options on the table, but an early hole will push them to become more one-dimensional, right into the hands of the Ravens’ pass rush. The Pats must have some balance and an early lead will only help them establish that.

5. Win – It’s the playoffs. Winning is the only thing that matters and putting down a tough Ravens team would be the kind of boost the Pats haven’t gotten from a divisional round victory since dsipatching Peyton Manning and the Colts in 2004. Despite their flaws, the Ravens are a similar team to the Patriots – tough and physical and unrelenting. It won’t be easy. But the 2014 Pats have the kind of team that should be able to pull it off.