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Pats Posits: Bye Week Not a Magic Elixir, But Pats Still in Playoff Bye Hunt

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On one hand, I feel like this weekend’s win over the Jets just reinforced what I’m already sure about with the 2018 Patriots, that with Sony Michel going they’re a very good offense. Without him, they’re up and down, and the struggles on third down are very real. Defensively, they’re up and down as well, but technically sound enough to take down an offense like the one the Jets rolled out there. Can they do it against a great offense on the road? Sunday did nothing to alleviate the concerns there, because it was Josh McCown and not some dual-threat quarterback they can expect to see in the playoffs.

But on the other hand, how much of this game was a traditional Jets struggle? How much were the penalties the Pats’ sloppiness compared to the flag-happy refs that call more penalties than anyone? How much was bye week rust? We can sweep this one under the rug, but there will be nowhere to hide on the road in Miami and Pittsburgh.

This sure didn’t feel like the reset button win we hoped would come post-bye, but it was still a solid victory. It might not have allayed my fears about what this editions weaknesses are, but it showed that even if they’re not perfect, the Patriots are still a very solid football team that will give any team problems.

More on it all in Posits.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at New York Jets

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Is it really already week 12? Yes, we’re after Thanksgiving, when the “real” football starts and the push to the playoffs begins. After a week off the Patriots are back in contention for a bye, a vitally important piece of the Super Bowl run equation. There are just six games left, with three of the next four on the road. That’s where we’ll learn the most about who these Patriots really are.

They kick things off with the 3-7 Jets who will be without rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. The Jets have been hit hard with injuries this year, with running back Bilal Powell ending up on IR. Losing your best running back and young quarterback when you’re in rebuild mode is never a good thing and the Jets have lost four in a row and have put up just 26 total points in their last three games.

Still, no matter how bad the Jets appear on paper they always seem to play their asses off against the Patriots. Last October they put up 400 yards on the Patriots and lost by just a touchdown and that was a team that won just five games. The season finale was a meaningless affair just as this year’s finale will likely be.

But for now the Pats have a lot to prove on the road, and the Jets have the 2nd-best third-down defense in the league. That hits the Pats where they’ve struggled most. Tom Brady and the offense will get a good test. Defensively there aren’t any excuses. They’ve played down to the competition on the road and to do it again this week after getting a break will be unacceptable and another sign that the Pats are sputtering when they usually don’t sputter.

Let’s dive into both sides of the ball and come up with a gameplan that will get the post-Thanksgiving train rolling!

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Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

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The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

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Pats Posits: Maybe the Pats are Just Bored

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It was nice to get a chance to catch our breath over the bye week and enjoy some non-Pats-stressed football. What seems clear is that the parity of last season has extended into 2018. It’s good for the league that so many games were close with the exception of just a couple blowouts which please the fantasy crowd.

After the Chiefs, Saints and Rams it’s a whole lot of up and down teams that could win or lose on any given Sunday. The Pats are definitely in that lower tier but part of me has to wonder if maybe the Patriots Football Machine is just having a little trouble getting up for non-big games. Especially on the road. At home against good teams, the Patriots have looked like one of the most solid teams in the league.

How you play on the road and against supposed inferior competition does say a lot about the complexion of your team, but I don’t know, maybe this team is just having as hard a time getting psyched up to play all our old friends at the Titans or Lions as I do. And a September Super Bowl in Florida? Whatever. Wake me up for KC, Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben and playoff games.

This is a transition year on offense and injuries have altered things a bit. Defensively, there aren’t any excuses. They’ve played pretty good at home and on the road they’ve looked like a different defense. The struggles on special teams, resulting in field position losses, have been silent killers.

We’ll get a small idea whether or not they can finally just turn it on this weekend. Yeah, the Jets have struggled but so has Buffalo and they hung with these road Pats. New England will get no credit for putting down the Jets, especially if their offense sputters again, but a solid road win to start the post-Thanksgiving push would be nice.

There’s a good team inside these 2018 Patriots, but their dueling personalities have drawn skepticism about their Super Bowl chances. All I know is they’ll keep at it, and go down swinging no matter what. It’s just what they do, even when they don’t win.

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Trey Flowers or Bust in Free Agency 2019

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Maybe this is the wrong time to take a look at the expiring contracts on the Patriots considering we’re coming off such a poor performance, but it’s the bye week and in just a few short months the free agents will be at the forefront of everyone’s mind no matter how the season ends.

The list of pending free agents has one big name at the top — Trey Flowers — and after him, and maybe Josh Gordon, is there anyone we’d be all that upset to see leave? Anyone who would truly hurt the Patriots a couple years down the road if they went elsewhere?

Let’s rundown the pending free agents, roughly ranked in order of importance current impact.

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Looking for a Friend at the End of Tom Brady

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It’s no surprise that the punditry and non-Patriot fans gleefully awaiting the inevitable decline of Tom Brady were out in force this week. While most professional sports legends are attributed a kind of reverence as their careers wrap up, Brady has just been too good for too long and transcended from the days of old media (newspapers!) to today’s overabundance of constant breaking news and hot takes.

Not only does it seem like the great majority want to see Brady finally stink, they’re actively rooting it on, eager to take the heroic stand that at some point he will break down and they were the first-ish to call it. Do you ever remember people on ESPN or wherever else getting excited about Wayne Gretzky, Michael Jordan, or even old pal Peyton Manning finally hanging them up?  Imagine how Manning was treated after Super Bowl 50, despite being a passenger on their championship ride. Would Brady ever get that kind of glowing adoration if he willed this 2018 Patriots team a Super Bowl title?

I’m still reading hot takes that coming back from 28-3 wasn’t all that impressive.

For whatever the reasons, and there are plenty of them, the Brady hate at the end is very real, leaving us all wondering why they can’t just leave him alone to get old and stinky in peace and not cue the victory parade after any sub-300 yard game.

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Film Review: Patriots Defense vs. Titans Edition

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It took me a couple days to finally dive into the film review of the Patriots against the Titans and I can’t say I was looking forward to it. But I’ve been with this defense for a decade and I can’t shy away even when things go as badly as they did in Tennessee.

Let’s take a look at the scoring drives and what went wrong.

1st Drive – Touchdown

The first play of the game pretty much summed up what kind of day it was going to be, as the pressure collapsed around Marcus Mariota but couldn’t bring him down and he found Corey Davis on a deep in cut. The re-appearance of Keionta Davis was a bit surprising and what wasn’t surprising was how the Titans went right after him on this drive. He had the same trouble getting off blocks and making plays. Really Trey Flowers was the only one who showed any pop in this first drive. The Titans finished it off on a third down as Patrick Chung failed to get a jam at the point of the bunch set and was outrun across the field by Jonnu Smith. The rollout by Mariota forced Devin McCourty into a no-win position (see below).

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