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Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

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Week Two is here and the Patriots face a tough AFC Championship rematch on the road in Jacksonville. How many times have we seen these kinds of games early in the season? The young upstarts are looking for a franchise-altering win. Sometimes, like the 2009 and 2010 Jets,  they live up to the hype. But often the emotional drain of beating the Patriots makes the young upstarts sleepwalk through the rest of their season.

More often than not the Patriots just prove their still the Patriots.

There’s no question the Jaguars are a talented team, but talented teams are hit or miss when they go against methodical football machines. If the Jags play with the kind of energy that the 2009 Jets did, they could and should exact their revenge. The Patriots are in it for the long haul though and even a loss in Florida that exposes flaws will be just a bump in the road of their development toward December and January.

It’s always fun to have an exciting road game against a potential new rival early in the season. What do the Pats have to do to get the win and make the rest of the league Patriots-depressed again?

Here’s the gameplan.

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A Look Back: Patriots-Jaguars 2017 AFC Championship

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The 2017 AFC Championship was a dogfight down to the end, with the young and hungry Jags pushing the Patriots to the very limit. Really, the Jags exposed the Patriots in a way that the Eagles would build off of in Super Bowl 52. They had quite a few chances to put the game away, but the Pats do what they always do, hang on and make the key plays at the end.

Despite some limitations of Blake Bortles, the Jags are one of the teams vying to dethrone the Patriots from AFC supremacy, and they certainly have the defensive pieces to make it happen. But this is a different Patriots team than the one that played last January and that includes both good reasons and bad reasons.

What can we determine from last year’s matchup? That this will be a test for the 2018 Pats that truly tells if they’ve put the problems of last season behind them.

The Patriots had a slow start to the game, falling into a 14-3 hole. The Jags sniffed out most of the underneath stuff Tom Brady, with a stitched-up hand, loves to rely on. Much of the offense relied shot plays to Cooks, or the PI calls that came with them sometimes. It was a true grind-it-out offensive performance and one that will be hard to replicate with entirely new pieces.

The simple fact is that the primary players outside of Brady who helped the Pats win this game are no longer on the team. But the flip side of the coin is that the defense which made just enough plays to win is much improved.

So which side wins?

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Film Review: Patriots vs. Texans Defense Edition 2018

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After years of focusing heavily on the Patriots’ defense it’s easy to see after the first game how new defensive coordinator Brian Flores has simplified things. They still did plenty of rotation of players, but this was as polished a defensive game as we’ve seen from a Pats team that often gets off to slow starts.

The defense was flying to the ball and looked well in-sync between coverage and pass rush. Most impressive, an array of front seven players who all won one-on-one battles. It is that Flores is sending all kinds of new pressure that Matt Patricia wasn’t, it’s that players like Trey Flowers, Keionta Davis, Dietrich Wise, Adam Butler and Adrian Clayborn are executing a coordinated and suffocating attack on the pocket.

Up front the base moved more toward a six-man front that echoes a 4-3 under. Kyle Van Noy was consistently on the defensive left side, standing. Hightower would line up to the tight end side (taking the TE in coverage on pass plays) and Bentley would line up across the running back, who he’d have in coverage. This meant that Trey Flowers was able to move back to right side after playing the Ninkovich role on the left. That role appears to be going away.

That was the run stopping front, I’m not sure they played a single meaningful snap of a seven-man front, fka “base”.

The other nickel package against the pass was a 4-2 front and they rotated all four linebackers through, with Hightower and Bentley being the top pairing, but Van Noy and Roberts also got rotational time. The nickel back ends rotated between Jonathan Jones in the slot and Duron Harmon, who saw some time near the line of scrimmage, somewhat of a rarity for him.

The coordination between Chung, McCourty, Gilmore and Rowe was outstanding. They gave up a few plays, but overall they were really sharp, especially in contrast to last year’s opening debacle.

Here’s a bunch more notes on a really impressive first defensive outing…

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Pats Posits: And We’re Off…

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The Patriots got the 2018 season rolling yesterday with a 27-20 win over the Texans. For all the talk of last season and offseason drama, the Patriots very much looked like the same old Patriots that have laid waste to the league for the last 17 seasons.

Tom Brady finished with three touchdowns and one tipped-ball interception, looking nothing like an average 41-year old should look navigating an NFL pocket. The biggest difference was that he still had Rob Gronkowski, and the devastating QB-TE combo was just unstoppable.

This was nothing like last year’s maddening loss in the opener to the Chiefs. The Patriots have depth and new personnel issues, but they managed to rotate plenty of players in and showed that there isn’t any personnel problem that can’t be overcome with good coaching. Most exciting is a defense that has had an influx of improvement on a variety of fronts.

Yes, if you’re not a self-hating, self-punishing Patriots fan you should feel pretty good today. Clearly, the New England Football Machine is still firing on all cylinders and looks like they’ll once again be a formidable opponent for every team they face.

Let’s fire off a bunch of Posits and we finally get into the regular season flow!

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 vs. Houston Texans

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The Patriots will kick off the 2018 season hosting the Houston Texans, a talented team that has run into the New England buzz saw seven straight times. Last year’s three-point defeat was as close as the Texans have been since 2013 and they should enter Gillette Stadium with something to prove and a confidence they can finally win in Foxboro. Had it not been for a last-minute Tom Brady miracle the Texans would’ve pulled the upset last year and should have every reason to think they can make it happen here in 2018.

There’s always such an element of unknown for week one. Often the games are sloppy as no one has really tackled yet, nor is anyone in true game shape. Penalties and special teams play perhaps the biggest role of all.

We are all aware that the Patriots of September are not the Patriots of January and February, even though the reaction will be as if they are. The Pats will likely continue to audition players, use rotations where they might not later in the year and generally be straightforward in their approach as they try to figure out what they’ve actually got this year.

So it’s important not to overreact to the outcome or sloppiness of any of these first few games. Still, it’s an AFC opponent and a win would be a good first step in the conference standings.

Here’s what the Pats need to do to survive Bill O’Brien and the Texans and get the 2018 season rolling.

 

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A Look Back: Patriots-Texans 2017

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I took a look back at the Patriots last-second win over the Texans in week three of 2017. It was good to get reacquainted with Houston and a reminder that this will be a very tough game for the Patriots. Here was my film review at the time for the defense and offense.

The Texans have all the pieces, and if Deshaun Watson can make the kind of throws he was making in the second half last year, we could be in for another track meet with over 60 points scored.

Jadaveon Clowney and JJ Watt are major problems and their disruptiveness was apparent on every Patriots possession. The Patriots were still managing Nate Solder last time and were without Marcus Cannon. Hopefully, the upgrade to a fully healthy Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon will make a difference and help Tom Brady establish a better rhythm early.

The Pats’ focus on power running with Mike Gillislee will likely mean a lot of Jeremy Hill and possibly Rex Burkhead (if healthy) with James Develin paving the way.

Jacob Hollister had a catch and got lit up. He should get a chance at some payback this weekend.

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What Will 2018 Pats Unveil Sunday?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-q7OC4su4Y

With the roster set and the first week of the regular season upon us, it’s time to find out who the 2018 Patriots are. Or at least get the first chapter of what will be a long book, with ups and downs. But this one counts and that means it’s time to see how the team has evolved for the new season.

Some pieces are obvious. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and James White will make the offense go. Dont’a Hightower and Stephon Gilmore will be the playmakers for the defense. But who else will need to chip in? What are the options and what will they ride on both sides of the ball?

Let’s break out the crystal football and predict what we’re going to see from the Pats on Sunday.

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