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Patriots Preseason Week 4: Bubble About to Burst

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I have to admit, I love the annual tradition of the preseason Week 4 scrubfest against the Giants. Yes, it’s grown into an unfortunate reminder of 42 and 46, but at this point, even those games bring a little nostalgia. Though 2007 can never be topped as the worst loss ever, the two more Super Bowl wins have largely canceled those two out.

I’m not even sure I see SB52 as all that disappointing in retrospect. The team, and especially Tom Brady, once again showed why this run is so unprecedented. Despite all the hoopla about who didn’t play, about how terrible the defense was, they were still only one play from winning their third Super Bowl in four years for the SECOND time.

Only one play either way in the Super Bowl. To get that EIGHT times is just spoiled. Winning it five of the eight? Unreal.

Anyway, let’s get this last hunk of junk off our plate so we can turn the page to the campaign for number six.

While I believe 80-90% of the 53-man is already set, there are still a few spots (cough cornerback) where there is still some uncertainty and jobs to be won.

Let’s list off who’s on the bubble and who needs a big game. Here’s my current 53-man roster v4.0.

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How Will Pats Cut Corners?

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The most interesting position group for the Patriots as we head into the final preseason week with cutdowns looming this weekend is cornerback. Between the new guys that have emerged and those who are returning from injury, there’s a logjam of intriguing players with a variety of skillsets, contracts and draft statuses. We’ve seen this happen before, with it often ending up with undrafted players making the roster and others unfortunately making it on different rosters around the league.

The position is oft-maligned but the top-two starters have been entrenched from the start. Stephon Gilmore was arguably the best defensive player in training camp. You might get distracted by the catches he gave up in a preseason game against Carolina, but make no mistake, Gilmore is poised for a shutdown season, the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time.

Next to him will be Eric Rowe, who hasn’t let go of the starting spot since last Super Bowl. Rowe is an outside guy with good size, so he’s useful for matchups as well. While the Pats will lean heavily on their three-safety, two-corner package, all five positions feature entrenched veterans. After that is where things get murky.

Let’s run down the candidates.

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Patriots Lock Up Shaq Mason

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In case you missed it yesterday morning, I had just gotten off of my weekly radio appearance in Maine having said that I’d bet Shaq Mason would likely walk to a new contract elsewhere in the offseason when the Patriots announced they had signed Mason to a new five-year extension.

It wasn’t that I thought they shouldn’t re-sign Mason, I just thought right guard is one of the easier positions to fill and that the money would likely have to go to Trey Flowers, the other remaining big-name pending free agent now. But this new contract signals a few different things, the biggest of which is that now the Pats offensive line is locked as so:

Throw in Isaiah Wynn, FA 2022, and the strong core will be in place through the inevitable Brady transition. Obviously having a veteran offensive line in place will be hugely helpful to the next QB of the NEP. Yes, there’s still a long-term question at left tackle, but that’s the only problem to worry about along the line for the next two years, and with the possibility of Wynn stepping in for Thuney, it might be even longer.

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Patriots 53-Man Roster 4.0

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With Kenny Britt and Eddie Pleasant both getting cut, there are two open spots on my roster projection since last time. The areas of biggest question are at cornerback where the Pats have a logjam of young promising players, a couple of whom were significant draft picks.

Here’s the rundown of the latest 53-man projection and where I could see some Labor Day additions after other teams cut down.

QB (2) T.Brady, B.Hoyer – No change.

RB (5) R.Burkhead, S.Michel, J.Develin, J.Hill, J.White – No change. Cut/Re-sign Bolden.

WR (4) C.Hogan, P.Dorsett, C.Patterson, M.Slater – I just can’t make a case for McCarron or Berrios at this point. Really the guy who’s impressed me the most of the low end receivers is Devin Lucien, but he has yet to get a big boy audition so I don’t think he’s a factor either. I don’t foresee a big free agent signing but I’d bet they take a flier on someone after cutdowns.

TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, J.Hollister – No change. Hope Hollister is healthy, they’ll need him weeks 1-4 to play an inside receiver role.

C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) T.Brown, M.Cannon, L.Waddle, U.John – John has emerged as the third tackle with Cannon out, he could sneak on especially after Waddle got benched against the Panthers. Cannon’s return would be a huge boost and likely push John off.

DE (4) T.Flowers, A.Clayborn, D.Wise, D.Rivers – Grissom can be cut and re-signed like last year. Excited about this group’s development, it’s a good mix and we haven’t even seen Flowers out there in weeks.

DT (5) M.Brown, D.Shelton, L.Guy, V.Valentine, A.Butler — I do wonder if Brown is in danger of getting cut or traded. I love Valentine and feel he’s a better schematic fit. Either way, Brown is clearly the 3rd DT now.

ILB(4) D.Hightower, E.Roberts, J.Bentley, N.Grigsby
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, M.Flowers, B.King

CB (7) S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.McCourty, C.Jones, D.Dawson, J.Jones, J.Jackson: Hardest spot on the roster right now and I can’t really justify keeping all these guys. Really, the one in the most danger might just be Jason McCourty. I’d predict Gilmore-Rowe-C. Jones might be the top trio out of the gate. I just love JC Jackson so he gets one of the two new roster spots even though there’s just too many players here.

SS (3) P.Chung, J.Richards, N.Ebner
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon – Thought Pleasant could get on via special teams and they gave him a long look. He’s an early cut out of respect to catch on elsewhere.

ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

SUSP: Julian Edelman

Film Review: It’s All There for Pats

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I know most of us came out of Friday’s preseason game with a bland taste in our mouths but after reviewing the film of the game, I’m feeling pretty good actually. That’s usually the case, especially in games that get overreacted to. My favorite example being the 2014 Chiefs blowout, which showed up in film review as just a game of bad fundamentals, something that is often quickly fixed.

It’s clear who the 2018 Patriots are now. And while there are still some questions toward the bottom of the roster, the top lines of the offense, defense and special teams have taken shape. Yes, even without adding another huge name wide receiver.

It’s impossible to know how the health of the team will hold up. So far so good. If they stay healthy no one can tell me this isn’t a Super Bowl roster. As always things will remain a work in progress but all the elements are there. Now it’s just a matter of bringing them all together under an actual gameplan and executing. There will be steps forward and steps back, but the aim of this team is the same as it’s ever been under Bill Belichick.

Here’s what jumped out in the film review against the Panthers.

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Pats Posits: Sticking With the Posit(ives) in a Flat Preseason Loss

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The Patriots’ 25-14 loss at the hands of the Carolina Panthers in Week Three of the preseason left plenty to feel blah about. The offense sputtered for most of the night. The defense looked far more like the pressureless bend-don’t-break that Patriots fans hoped went with Matt Patricia to Detroit rather than the attacking new defense producing constant pressure that they thought they had after last week under Brian Flores.

Overall, there just wasn’t a whole lot to get excited about but if you’re watching a preseason game to get you excited about the regular season you have been asleep for most of the Augusts of the last two decades. There were encouraging signs though there’s no question this team still has a long way to go, as they always do, even when they look dominant in the preseason.

As much as Week Three as billed as the “dress rehearsal” it’s still preseason and there’s no reason to overreact. Let’s blast off a bunch of Posits before I jump into taking a second look at the game.

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Patriots Gameplan: Preseason Week 3 vs. Carolina Panthers

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I swear to Hoodie, I’m not going to call week three of the preseason a “dress rehearsal” but it’s really the last time we’re going to get anything much of interest before the annual scrubfest against the Giants. This will be the last time we see anyone important before the bullets are real against the Texans, and for that reason, there will be plenty to react to from tonight’s game.

A good place to start would be these five lingering questions, where you can swap in Eric Decker for Kenny Britt. If he remembers how to catch he’s got to be close to a roster lock. If he’s not, you know he fell off a cliff. There’s no question all eyes will be on the receivers, especially Phillip Dorsett. If he busts a big play, things will look on track. Better than a big play, I’d rather a tough catch, but that won’t get the kind of attention a long gain would.

As has been the case in the preseason I’m diverting from the usual gameplan because, well, preseason games are minimally gameplanned. All they want to do is avoid bad plays that have no chance for success. Otherwise, it’s vanilla ice cream on both sides of the ball. However last week showed a bit of an exception with de facto defensive coordinator Brian Flores sending more blitzes than I can recall seeing in the preseason.

This week there will be even more of a focus on the defense because Cam Newton is the kind of quarterback that the Patriots don’t blitz. He’s also the kind that gave them fits last year, so this first half at least should be an excellent test for the new front.

More on that and everything else I’ll be watching in the final dress re… meaningless audition of the summer.

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