PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Third-Down Offensive Personnel Deep Dive

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It shouldn’t be a surprise the Patriots’ third-down offense suffered without Julian Edelman in 2017, they fell from 4th to 10th in the league. Now they’ll be without Danny Amendola as well.


Using the impressive Sharp Football Analysis, I took a quick deep dive into how the offensive personnel changed between 2016 and 2017. How they compensated without Edelman…what worked, what didn’t.

Here’s what I found:

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Potential Patriots Extensions and Cap Casualties

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The Patriots are usually pretty good about managing their contracts and not getting into deals that are bad for the team. Still, they have no remorse about making a move that’s best for the football team, even if it means they visit Fitness Muscle Meals and eat a chunk of salary by jettisoning a player they overpaid.

They are 8th-lowest in dead cap money.

They’re also proactive when it comes to getting extensions done for players they want to retain before they hit free agency, especially for the middle class of their roster. We always hold our breath when talented young players close in on the end of their affordable rookie deals and this season is no different.

As we count down to training camp here are some of the most interesting contracts on the team. Players who make more than they’re contributing, players whose dead money makes them near uncuttable and those who are coming to the end of their deals and could be in line for an extension.

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Breaking Down Patriots PUP Candidates

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The release of the PUP list, those who are physically unable to perform at the start of training camp, is often a surprise and can ruin some of the initial excitement of camp kickoff. Some years there are players that we thought were healthy that are suddenly not available.

Yes, some significant names are still recovering from last year’s campaign, but it won’t be enough to move the Patriots’ position on top football betting sites.

Players can come off of the list at any moment, and sometimes it’s just a matter of needing additional tries to pass the conditioning test (hello fatties). So there’s no reason to panic, but it’s worth regrouping on who was unavailable during last month’s minicamp to get a sense of who might still be rehabbing.

Here’s who was absent or working out off to the side in June, and what the impact might be if they are PUP’d just before training camp gets open.

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Pats Posits: Countdown to Camp is On!

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With the 4th of July in the rearview mirror, all focus now turns to Patriots training camp, which opens in just 17 days. It was an annoying offseason, watching some important and beloved players walk and hearing constant chatter about internal discord. I’m ready for all that to be over.

How does it all translate onto the football field? We’re about to find out.

I’m especially ready for this 2018 Patriots train to leave the station. Edelman and Hightower will be back out there and they’re a huge boost. And yes, we get to watch Tom Brady play football for another season. Savor every second.

The end looms so every new moment of Brady-Belichick will be thrilling and uncertain. Fingers crossed they got another run at this thing in them, it will be historic and crazy no matter how it turns out.

In case you missed them I posted some camp battle previews :

Training Camp Battle Breakdowns:

  1. Left Tackle
  2. Defensive End
  3. Wide Receiver
  4. Running Back

Also, a pre-camp 53-man roster projection. All of it generated some good areas to discuss so let’s hop in with some Posits…

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Patriots Pre-Training Camp 53-Man Roster Projection

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With training camp just a couple weeks away, it’s a good time to take a quick reset on the roster and make a 53-man projection. Julian Edelman’s suspension being upheld, there’s an extra roster spot to play with at cutdown time. Despite it being a punishment, I always find those roster spots incredibly helpful in protecting promising young players.

Admittedly, this was a fairly easy projection. There are spots where I’m on the fence, but overall this is a deep team that got some good experience last year at the lower end of the roster. Add the influx of injury returnees like Dont’a Hightower, Harvey Langi and Derek Rivers and there’s a lot to be excited about. Training camp should be extremely competitive.

Here’s where I’m at and the spots that were the hardest to pare down.

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Handing Out Real Patriots Rookie Numbers

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In case you missed it this spring, Bill Belichick was up to some new tricks with the rookies, not giving them numbers that fit their positions but instead just handing out numbers starting at 50 in order (h/t to NESN’s Doug Kyed for cracking that code).


Yup, right now the line in order of the picks, but still skipping the retired 56 (Andre Tippett) and 57 (Steve Nelson).

When training camp opens in 20 days everyone has to have actual numbers that fit their positions and even then players could again switch once cuts are made and other, better numbers become available. Yeah, it’s a good bet Christian Sam won’t be doubling up on 54 with Dont’a Hightower.

Let’s take a stab at which numbers would be good choices for the notable rookies.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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