Patriots 2016 Preview: Defensive Overview

We’re just 17 days away from the start of Patriots training camp! The offseason always seems so long but somehow goes by so quickly. As we gear up for a huge new season here on the blog (more on that in the coming days), I’m posting some excerpts from my 40-page Patriots 2016 preview.

Here’s my defensive overview,  you can buy a digital copy of the preview book its entirety here for just $4.

2015 Defensive Statistical Rankings

Overall DVOA – 12th           Yards-per-Game – 24th (339.4)

Passing DVOA – 10th           Points-per-Game – 10th (19.7)

Running DVOA – 13th          Third Down – 10th (37 percent)

Fourth Down –  10th (44 percent)

The Patriots had perhaps their best defensive season since the dynasty days in 2015. After much concern about transitioning from Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats seamlessly transitioned to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, and saw their third down defense enter the top-10 in the NFL after being ranked 16th in 2015.

Most encouraging was that the Pats stuck primarily with the Cover-1 Robber defense that they used most often in 2014 as well. Man defense is critical in today’s NFL and the Pats held up well minimizing zone defenses that can be picked apart.

While the offense was decimated with injuries, the defense had better injury luck. Both Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower missed some games, but everyone was available for the playoffs and they turned in two solid performances.

With everyone returning except Chandler Jones, there’s little reason to think they won’t be even better this year.

One factor could be a significantly tougher schedule in 2016. Instead of cake walks with the AFC South and NFC East, they’ll now have to face the daunting NFC West and AFC North, which feature a number of top quarterbacks and difficult matchups.

The major additions on defense include Chris Long, Shea McClellin and Terrence Knighton. While Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should take the starting defensive end roles, Long is more than capable as the designated pass rusher and rotational defensive end.

Prior to two years of injury, Long showed little sign of dropoff in an otherwise healthy career. He’ll surprise anyone writing him off and I expect this trio to be even better than they were with Chandler Jones. By the end of 2015, Sheard had surpassed Jones on the depth chart anyway, playing more snaps in both playoff games.

McClellin gives the Patriots a third linebacker/edge hybrid player who can do a little of everything like Hightower and Collins, though he worked with the defensive ends in minicamp. He also gives them long term insurance as both Collins and Hightower enter the final years of their deals (though I’d expect both to re-sign before the 2016 season is done).

Acquiring Knighton, picking up Alan Branch’s option, the release of Dominique Easley and the drafting of Vincent Valentine all signal the direction of the Patriots’ defense schematically. No longer are they interested in undersized three-technique penetrators.

No, now it’s now all about size in the middle and essentially a paired down version of Belichick’s old 3-4 defense. Malcom Brown is an outstanding athlete, and though he doesn’t quite have the height of the other three tackles, he and the others will be able to occupy the middle of offensive lines while the linebackers and defensive ends make the plays.

It’s exciting to return nearly the entire defense, along with some solid additions in both free agency and the draft who should contribute immediately. Expectations should be through the roof, but they’ll be tested right out of the gate and see every variation of offense that exists in the NFL. They’re built to deal with all of them.