The 2016 Patriots will largely resemble the 2015 Patriots, outside of Chandler Jones. Yes, some new faces are certain to emerge while familiar ones might go down, but for the most part the Pats have an incredible amount of continuity from last season. That always bodes well, and given the injuries we saw last season, the Patriots should be a far better team in 2016. And they’ll need to be, given their much tougher schedule.
But looking past this season, there is loads of uncertainty, with 32 players set to hit some form of free agency once the 2017 season starts.
Let’s take an in-depth look at all the decisions the Pats will have to make, because they should start acting sooner than later to prevent a mass exodus.
Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Offense
Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending
I don’t want to go back and re-hash my feelings about drafting for the future at RB and RT, but those two positions are lit up far more than I’d like. But let’s be honest, every single guy at those spots could walk and it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Vollmer’s near the end, Cannon is what he is, and none of the running backs, at least at this point, have emerged as long-term building blocks.
Really, Matthew Slater and James Develin are probably the only two real priorities. Yes, they’ll have to add personnel at RB and RT and I wish those replacements could be groomed this season (and who knows maybe they will be, like Gaffney or Waddle), but those are essentially plug and play positions.
Jonathan Cooper is in a fascinating position. He might be the most talented offensive linemen on the roster, but the competition will be stiff at guard. I could see him not making the 2016 team or being their best guard and warranting a significant extension. Impossible to predict at this point.
Sadly, Martellus Bennett will likely be a one-year rental, but we’re used to those so let’s just enjoy him while we’ve got him.
Patriots 2017 Salary Cap: Defense
Yellow – URFA, Orange – ERFA/RFA, Blue – Rookies, Red – Injury Issue Pending
Things are a little more complicated on the defensive side of the ball. Most of us feel Hightower and Collins are must re-sign players and that of this huge list of pending free agents for next season they’ll be the priorities. Let’s just assume this is true, because if even one of them leave we better be praying Shea McClellin is legit.
The bigger problem is at defensive end where the top three guys will be unrestricted free agents. Ninkovich is a big question mark given he’s 32. He’d be amenable to a team-friendly deal, but how much does he realistically have left in the tank. Sheard is in his prime, but if he hits the market there should be plenty of teams will to overpay him, especially if he lights it up as a full-time starter this season.
Long’s the wild card. I’m expecting him to really bounce back this season, but he’s just a year younger than Ninkovich. Usually guys like him who come in for one year in a pass rusher role rack up some numbers then walk. I am very curious how it plays out with Long, especially since he spent so many years on a losing team.
What the Patriots truly need is for Tre Flowers (my favorite), Geneo Grissom and/or Rufus Johnson to emerge into potential starters for 2017. At least one of them. Preferably more. But at least one. Defensive end is a critical position and there are huge question marks there beyond this season.
Finally at cornerback, the Pats are in a good spot with Malcolm Butler as a RFA, but giving him a big extension could come at the expense of Logan Ryan. But I don’t think many will be too concerned about his departure. With a number of promising young corners in the mix, Ryan might not even make it through 2016 at the top of the depth chart.
Yes, there are a ton of free agents but the Pats have just $54 million of their 2017 cap space allotted. So they’ll have plenty of room to keep who they want to keep. Of course it takes two to make a deal, but the Pats’ hands won’t be tied to at least pursue who they want with what they deem reasonable deals.
Mike:
I certainly enjoyed your article, I have the following comments/questions:
1. How much cap space should the Patriots try and drum up this year to help out with the cap situation next year?
2. How much money can they roll over with regards to underspending the cap in 2016 to 2017? (More to the point is there a limit?)
3. Because Butler is a RFA would his cap hit be next year?
4. Out of all the players that “could” be resigned next year, which players do you think of as necessary to resign?
My list:
Hightower (3-4 years)
Collins (3-4 years)
Vollmer (2 year deal)
Slater (2 year deal)
Sheard (3-4 years)
Thanks Ryan. My best guesses:
1. Not sure they really need to drum up much cap space at this point. Giving Hightower a contract now would likely lower the cap, so they don’t need immediate space to make a move. But cutting Cannon would open some space up.
2. That’a a good question that I can’t answer.
3. Depends on what they tender him with, likely the first round option which this year was $3.635 million. Since the Pats can pretty much control Butler they have the leverage so I don’t think there’s real danger in losing him until 2018, unless someone wants to pony up a first rounder for him.
4. Collins/Hightower are 1A/1B as I see it, and I’m not entirely sure who I think is more necessary. They’re such great complimentary players. I’d put Sheard next and the Butler. I think Vollmer is nearing the end and this likely his last year. Slater shouldn’t be an issue, but as much as I love everything he brings to the table, they could overcome losing him. He’s the kind of guy that isn’t going to get a much better offer elsewhere. His real value is to the Patriots and everyone knows it.