I came out of the win over the Bengals happy that the Patriots were no longer having to over-rely on Julian Edelman. Preserving Edelman for the key moments in the playoff run is of prime importance as we saw last year, when the Patriots 3rd down numbers fell off a cliff when Edelman went down.
However I made the mistake of flipping on Felger and Mazz on Monday afternoon to discover them wondering what was going on with Edelman. Huh? I usually don’t humor F&M’s silly outrage with blog posts, but it does seem like Edelman’s been a little bit more quiet than we’re used to. Add in a few recent penalties and his lack of a touchdown through six games and I started to wonder if something was up with #11.
So I took a look at Edelman’s season so far to see what, if anything, is really going on.
First, let’s take a look at a few stats. Edelman’s had three penalties in the last three games, two for false start and one for illegal shift. Two of them came in the loss to the Bills with a one-thumbed rookie quarterback. Last year, he had three all season, and they all strangely came against the Dallas Cowboys.
Edelman also has two dropped passes with a drop percentage of 4.6. Last year, he dropped eight passes for a drop percentage of 9.1, bad enough for 7th in the NFL.
So neither of those stats really jumps out to me as signifying anything is all that different with Edelman. He’s been streaky with penalties and he’s actually dropping fewer passes.
But it was the disparity between targets and catches this weekend that led F&M to wonder if maybe Edelman’s foot is acting up again.
In the first two games of the season, Edelman caught 14 of his 17 targets, but since then he’s caught just 14 of 27, including nine of 17 in the two games since Tom Brady has been back. Compared to the last three seasons, Edelman’s catch percentage has dropped from an average of 69.2 (’13-15) to 63.6. Over the course of one 100-catch season that’s a whopping five targets not caught.
Give the small sample size and the three different quarterbacks he’s played with, it’s a stretch to say something is definitively wrong. A slow start? Some injury rust? Maybe side effects of a somewhat reduced role? Maybe. But Jules still seems like Jules for the most part, especially with the ball in his hands.
A bit of a drop coming off a foot injury that needed two surgeries shouldn’t be cause for alarm. Throw in that the Pats have just started using him in punt returns again and it would seem like he’s trending upward as far as health and recovery are concerned.
And when you look at the specific passes that have fallen incomplete, I mean, does this look like he’s having trouble getting open? Or is it, gasp, just not a good throw from TFB?
And does this look like a punt return from Edelman where he’s favoring an injury?
Looks like the same old Edelman to me.
Here’s the long and short of it. Edelman hasn’t quite been up to the standards we’ve become used to over the last three seasons. His absence from punt returns until the Browns game (when he had just one) show how the Patriots are still managing him. But the fact that they haven’t had to overuse him is nothing but a good thing, not a sign that he’s lost step or possibly still injured.
The Patriots have a much more well-rounded offense this year with Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan. Even Danny Amendola has taken a reduced role, becoming essentially a designated third down receiver now.
But Edelman’s importance to getting another Super Bowl has not diminished. He’s still the most targeted receiver on third down. In the coming weeks we’ll see him return to the fully operational Edelman we’re used to as teams use more and more resources on Gronk and Bennett, and Edelman settles back into his synergy with Brady.
That’s when it will be Edelman’s turn to shine once again.
Two thumbs up on this.
I think he’s going to be just fine!