Pats Posits: One More to Go

Merry Christmas from the West Coast! It was a unique experience for me yesterday as I was on a plane and left with no better option than listening to the Patriots win over the Bills via the Sports Hub radio stream. It’s been a while since I experienced a game only on the radio, but it was fun to finally get to see the big plays later in the day and I thought Zolak and Socci were fun to listen to.

So here we are, the Pats are 12-3 with one game to go, and really all I see is a pile of negativity everywhere I look. I get it, everyone outside of Patriots Nation is so sick of the Patriots. Now, instead of getting excited post-game it immediately becomes about deflecting that negativity.

Bad calls, the Jimmy G situation and the Alex Guerrero thing are the stories driving the Patriots’ narrative these days. It feels like this was the year that the Patriots finally broke the rest of the NFL. Long gone are the “they haven’t won anything since Spygate,” that was such a reassuring crutch for those who hate the Patriots. Now they’re left with no such crutch.

Wins alone are no longer close to enough for even those in our tribe. Wins are boring now. Wins can’t drive the Patriots’ season narrative because it’s just been so played out. So instead it’s all about the secondary stuff and that’s just so frustrating that here in the last few seasons of Brady we can’t really enjoy a win being a win. Now everyone wants to talk about anything but the wins.

More frustrating is the direction it’s all trending, pointing toward how things will look and sound when the Brady-Belichick era is over. We now know that Jimmy G will be hung around our necks for all time. And it will be even worse if Belichick misfires on the second round pick we got for him. I knew it would be bad for Patriots’ fans in the aftermath of the dynasty as everyone lined up and piled on, but the sneak preview we’re getting now makes me realize it will be even worse than we imagined.

But the good news, that everyone has seemingly forgotten, is again that the Pats will be the top AFC seed with a win over the Jets, the bye is already secure and clearly, the dynasty isn’t over yet as much as everyone outside of our fandom want it to be.

Here are the Posits on the win over Buffalo and even some of the ancillary BS.

— If it wasn’t blatantly clear before, the 2017 Pats’ chances lie almost entirely on the shoulders of Brady, Gronk and Dion. That trio is what makes this team special and if they are clicking it will be hard for any defense to stop. Still, the drop in 3rd down effectiveness in clear and there’s no guarantee that those struggles of late could be a problem in the playoffs. Earlier in the year the dropoff without Edelman wasn’t as pronounced, but in recent weeks it’s been a lot more noticeable. Last year the third down offense was 4th (45.8 percent), this year their 8th (41.7 percent). No, not a monumental drop but a significant one in arguably then most critical area.

— As for the defense, they continue to get stops when it matters, but when it doesn’t matter, like early in the game, they’ve looked terrible. Somehow in the 4th quarter they just seem to finally turn it on. Over the last four games they’re 10th in yardage allowed and most impressively, are the only team in the league to not allow a point in the fourth quarter. So what gives? Why do teams move the ball at will early in the game and then suddenly can’t do anything in the fourth? It scares me because it makes those final stops so very vital. How about a playoff game where they play all four quarters like they’ve been playing the fourth quarter?

— It’s no secret how to attack the Pats’ defense. We see it every week now, toss sweeps, short underneath passes, coupled with some deep shots where the Pats’ corners seem to struggle lately with contested catches. Anything teams can do to exploit the linebackers has been effective. Until the 4th quarter. If the Pats are going to lose a playoff game it will be because that 4th quarter step up doesn’t happen.

— I struggle to find a replica season to this one. The injuries match the most catastrophic seasons like 2013 and 2015, but for whatever reason the 2017 team hasn’t struggled like those teams did. Both of them bowed out in the AFC Championship on the road, but I’ve wondered what those games in Denver might’ve looked like in New England, even with the depleted squad the Pats rolled out. Now this team has the chance to keep the AFCCG at home and that could make all the difference for this team.

— Malcom Brown‘s emergence into an elite defensive tackle has really keyed a lot of the Pats’ good fortune late in games recently, with yesterday’s game the shining example. The Bend Don’t Break is just so much more effective when you’re making plays in the backfield on first and second down. The third-and-longs have been the only spot where the Pats have had success, but getting those longer yardages has been a battle without their top playmakers.

— I really think Kyle Van Noy and Chris Hogan will provide just the kind of boost the team needs on both sides of the ball, and mitigate a lot of the scouting work teams do on the Pats in recent weeks. Put it this way — the attack mode of targetting linebackers and playing tight press man will be challenged by their respective returns.

— Lewis has been so electric, right back to his early 2015 form and that’s just so exciting, except for the fact that he’s gonna be a free agent this offseason. What a storyline that will be because if there’s one player who could help buy Brady a couple extra years it’s a back like Lewis who the Pats have never stumbled upon until now.

— Still don’t know how the Pats ever could’ve kept Jimmy G or what possible trade compensation would have satisfied the fanbase at this point, so it’s a good bet that there will soon be a rogue nation of Pats fans who wish we it had been Brady that was sent to San Fran while the Pats ripped the bandaid off and just went with Garoppolo. That internal divide will be a point of contention for the next decade unfortunately.

One more game to go. Health is everything and if this Pats team can finish off the Jets, lock up homefield and put their full compliment of players out there come mid-January, I’ll really like their chances. But I still think this team has its flaws, maybe they haven’t shown up like they did down the stretch of 2013 and 2015, but they are most certainly there. The margin for error feels smaller this year without knowing we can rely on guys like Edelman and Ninkovich with the game on the line. Others must step up, whether or not they do will determine if the Pats can raise another Lombardi this season.