All the best sportsbooks have the Patriots among the iron of the NFL, favored to once again be in the hunt for the Super Bowl. But much can change over the course of season and injuries, hot and cold streaks and other factors come into play.
As a Patriots blogger I have a pretty good sense of the teams that are on the right track to beat the Patriots. Here’s my list of the AFC teams that scare me most.
5. Baltimore Ravens: I’m not sure how much bearing we can put into the Patriots 2013 dismantling of the Ravens in Baltimore. Every game going back to 2007 had been fairly close until then, but I believed the Ravens would not be able to play the Patriots the same way without Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and I still think that is the case. The Ravens were one of the few teams that were never afraid of the Patriots, but without Lewis and Reed, they lost some of that. Still, the Ravens are well-run and will emerge from their defensive overhaul as the Pats did. The Ravens are similarly constructed and the result is (almost) always a physical contest that comes down to the end.
4. Miami Dolphins: Miami pulled out a win over the Pats last season, but, like the rest of the division, just can’t seem to pull off the upset in New England. Still, they have a promising young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and with a re-built offensive line, New England won’t be able to get as blitz-happy against them this year.
3. New York Jets: Outside of a few Patriots blowouts, the Jets and Patriots almost always have close ones. The Pats are 2-3 in New York since 2009, though all anyone remembers is the ButtFumble. Rex Ryan’s defense was rebuilt on the fly and now has as promising of a front seven as any team in the NFL. They are another team unafraid of the Pats’ mystique. If their revamped offense can find it’s stride by the time the head to Foxboro in mid-October they could be primed to pull off an upset. They haven’t won in New England since the 2010 playoffs though they came within overtime of doing it in 2012.
2. Indianapolis Colts: It hasn’t looked like the Pats have much to fear from Andrew Luck in the first two times they faced him, including last year’s playoff game, but both contests were in Foxboro. Now the Pats must travel to Indianapolis, where the Colts are a different team. Hakeem Nicks should help improve the offense with Reggie Wayne and if their offensive line fixes its problems, Luck should make some throws, even against the revamped Patriots secondary. This November 16th matchup could determine where the playoff rematch is played. The Pats will have their work cut out for them against a Colts team that will be looking to make a statement against them.
1. Denver Broncos: Who else would be number one? The Broncos handles the Pats in the AFC Championship and both teams had notable offseasons. However I think the Pats have the edge, or at least will have the edge by January. The Broncos depth is frightening, especially on defense. They have little margin for error and if Peyton Manning’s game declines (along with Wes Welker’s), the Broncos could be going the “old and slow” route to another disappointing playoff run. The Pats do have depth concerns of their own, but their ability to overcome injuries was well-documented in 2013, and there’s little chance New England sees that kind of attrition for a second season in a row.
