You’ll rarely find me making serious predictions or power rankings here on the blog, but this weekend’s Patriots-Broncos game seems like a ripe opportunity to break the trend.
I’m not one of the people who is sick of all the Tebow storylines because I don’t watch Sportscenter. And I’m not going to try and tell you whether or not Tebow is a long term solution for the Broncos. Nor am I going to make any commentary on his faith, though it’s clear he talks the talk and walks the walk in that department.
For me it just comes down to football and I think this is the week Tebow and the his disciples falls back to earth. Let’s lay out the ingredients…
- A still-angry Tom Brady who has something to prove after how his last pass ended against the Redskins.
- A Patriots defense that might not be great against the pass, but are excellent in the simple fundamentals and “doing their job”, especially when it comes to staying within the system.
- An entire Patriots team that has something to prove on the home field of the Broncos moreso than any other home field in the NFL.
Let’s start with Tebow. It doesn’t take a football genius to figure out the secret to ending his current run. Put him in an early hole. Force him to have to abandon the run game and throw the ball to catch up. The golden number is a 17-point lead.
The only possible model for success for the Broncos is what the Browns did last year. Get an early lead. Pound the ball on the ground and keep Brady off the field. Run a couple successful trick plays. Force the Patriots to be one dimensional and allow Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller to pin their ears back and get after Brady.
Where the Patriots can get into trouble defensively is when offenses run multiple shifts, forcing the Pats to communicate and adjust to each one. The Broncos should be able to mimic this Mangini-esque game plan to get the Pats defense on their heels. But with what the Broncos have shown this is one week the Pats should be ready to be attacked as such.
So for the Patriots defense it will be all about discipline. Ideally the Pats would like to mimic what the Bears were successful with for three quarters last week. Play man to man, put eight in the box, and make sure everyone maintains their gap and doesn’t overpursue or fall for the myriad of misdirectional plays the Broncos thrive on. Playing sound fundamental defense
The Broncos have a respectable defense but it’s about to be tested like it hasn’t since the Lions mauled them. In the big picture the Broncos D is a very solid road test for the Patriots to handle. It’s still very possible they’d have to travel to Baltimore, Pittsburgh or Houston should they make the AFC Championship.
I expect a full 60 minutes from New England on both sides of the ball. Their defense has literally been laughed at all week, and the storyline that was second to that was Brady’s endzone interception and the argument that followed.
When I look at all these factors the result seems obvious to me.
Patriots 37, Broncos 10