In this week’s film review I’m going to take a little more micro look at the third downs that the Patriots failed to get stops on against the Browns. Right now the Patriots are 27th in the NFL in third down defense (44.6 percent, worst since 2010) and 30th in red zone defense (80 percent).
Combine the two and the Patriots are by far the worst third down defense in the red zone in the NFL, giving up a first down 83.3 percent of the time. The second-worst team in the league, Baltimore, is at 70 percent, while the third-worst, Houston, is at 57.1 percent. That shows just how far below the rest of the league the Patriots have been in the critical area of their beloved bend-don’t-break, which depends immensely on third down stops in the red zone.
Now I’m not here to go all doom and gloom on the defense. These stats are certainly concerning, but there’s a long way to go and with Tom Brady back in the mix, we’re just getting our first taste of the real 2016 Patriots. So we can reserve some judgement at this point.
Here’s a look at five third downs against the Browns with what went wrong and how the Pats might fix it.
1. 1st Quarter, Patriots 7-0, Ball at NWE 47, 3rd-and-6
Here’s the key moment. The coverage is good across the board but as you can see above the pocket is well-defined as Ninkovich, Sheard and Brown are all single blocked. In a slightly different twist Jamie Collins blitzes (and is double-teamed) while Chris Long holds up to cover the running back. The problem is that Long can’t catch up to Crowell allowing Kessler to find him for an 18-yard gain.
2. 1st Quarter, Patriots 7-0, Ball at NWE 21, 3rd-and-6 ALMOST RED ZONE
Again, here’s the textbook definition of a clean pocket. This pass ends up going to Pryor for 10 yards after he runs a comeback with Butler not wanting to get beaten deep. That’s also Hightower holding the running back which would draw a flag, not that it mattered. Flowers and Long are basically taken out of the play because there’s no push up the middle especially from Brown. This is a prime example where you need to collapse the top of the pocket and either push the QB into the edge rushers or at least prevent him from stepping up.
3. 2nd Quarter, Patriots 23-7, Ball at CLE 26, 3rd-and-9
This one ends up being a pretty great pass from Charlie Whitehurst to Gary Barnidge for 12 yards on an out. But with a pocket like that it’s a lot easier to make those kind of throws. It was like the Patriots pass rush was the last thing on Whitehurst’s mind.
4. 3rd Quarter, Patriots 30-7, Ball at CLE 27, 3rd-and-8
This one was a little bit different as the Pats rushed five, giving the running back to McCourty and Jamie Collins actually causes some disruption as he slices in from the left side of the line. The problem was that Jonathan Jones did not get Cyrus Jones‘ signal to switch their receivers and both of them covered Hawkins after his presnap motion. That left Pryor running uncovered across the formation and, as you can see above, Whitehurst had an easy pitch and catch to him. Jones also got ejected at the end of this play for throwing a punch.
5. 3rd Quarter, Patriots 30-7, Ball at NWE 43, 3rd-and-8
For the last one it’s the same problem, Whitehurst is comfortable in the pocket and finds Pryor on an out for 15 yards. The Pats tried Trey Flowers inside this time but he is pushed to the ground. Sheard loops around but is also pushed out of the way but the six-man protection of the Browns.
Let’s be honest if the Pats weren’t getting there with four on five blockers, they sure weren’t getting there with four on six.
Coming into the season, the stable of defensive end pass rushers was exciting to think about. Everyone loves talking and dreaming about the NASCAR front, and the Pats have busted it out often here in the early going. However it’s been ineffective and the pressure/disruption has been inconsistent at best. These were all third-and-longs. You have to get off the field in these situations against good teams.
My concern continues to be the interior pressure, which is the most important ingredient in pass rush today. While the Pats lack a three-technique who can torpedo the middle of the offensive line and prevent the quarterback from stepping up, they’ve also abandoned using Hightower and Collins on double A gap blitzes like they did so effectively in 2014 and when both players were healthy in 2015.
More of that should be in order. Otherwise, trying to get cute by lining Sheard and Long up at various spots hasn’t had much effect. Lines haven’t worried about who’s coming and who’s going because they’ve all been blockable no matter what.
As Hightower gets fully healthy he should be the key guy. Expect as his pass rush snaps increase for the Patriots defense to get significantly better on third down.
