New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals

 

The long cold offseason is finally over. Patriots football is back this Sunday as the Pats travel to Arizona and face a stiff test from a Cardinals team that was one of the best in the NFC last season.

Of course the center of the media coverage is Jimmy Garoppolo, embarking on the first of his four game 2016 tour. Garoppolo was just okay this preseason, but didn’t have a turnover, and that might be the most important key to success for him over this first quarter of the season.

While everyone’s talking about Garoppolo — how he really feels about Tom Brady, how he feels about Tom Brady having an enormous banner hanging over the home stadium, how he feels about Tom Brady not being around to give him advice — what I’m most interested in this weekend is the Patriots defense.

Simply put, they are stacked. And if Jimmy gives them the chance, they can win every one of these four games.

Here’s the gameplan for the Cardinals…

Offensive Gameplan

The Cardinals are an aggressive, attacking defense. The key to beating those kind of teams is to use that aggression against them. That means screen passes, misdirection and occasional trickeration. So while it might be scary to think about all that pass rush pressure coming, it’s probably the best thing for making a manageable gameplan for Garoppolo.

I won’t beat the 2008 drum too hard, but what the Pats did with Matt Cassel that year was remarkable. No, they couldn’t beat any of the best teams in the AFC, but it was far better than how bad Cassel looked in the 2008 preseason. Belichick and McDaniels know by now what Garoppolo is good at and they can tailor the attack to those strengths in the same way.

Where the entire gameplan could start to fall apart is if they are not having success on early downs. If the Pats can’t get it going with LeGarrette Blount on first and second down, putting them in third-and-longs, it’s going to be a long day. That’s what we saw in the preseason game against Carolina, and no quarterback can be expected to do well when he’s consistently facing third-and-longs.

And to be honest, I don’t know what to expect from the ground game.

So Blount and James White are big keys to keeping the third downs manageable. White’s ability in the screen game is especially exciting this week and if he slips through the oncoming pass rush and Garoppolo gets the ball to him at the last second with his quick release, White could bust off some long runs.

But let’s not forget about the two tight end offense, because that should be the Patriots ultimate trump card this season. The Cardinals want to send multiple blitzers, but when Gronk and/or Bennett suddenly motion out wide it will stress the outside linebackers, one of whom being Chandler Jones. If/when we see Chandler running out to the sideline to cover Gronk/Bennett I’m going to be jumping up and down. That’s a matchup to exploit.

This speaks to the bigger problem for the Cardinals. How do you play the Pats 12 personnel package? Because if they go with sub packages the Pats will use those two monster tight ends as run game blockers. And if it’s their base defense, the Pats are going to spread them out and force their linebackers to cover in space.

However, Gronk is battling a hamstring tweak and it doesnt’ sound like it’s a total lock he plays, saying on Thursday it would be “up to the coaches.” Oh boy, let’s just cross our fingers and hope Bennett could carry the load if 87 isn’t out there.

Jimmy just needs to have poise and confidence, because the Pats should be able to dictate their fair share of matchups. It’s just up to the quarterback to find the mismatches and deliver the ball. The receivers will do the rest.

The hardest thing to project is how Garoppolo will do with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan. We saw him not quite on the same page as Edelman in limited preseason action. If he does get into third-and-longs, he’ll likely have to make some tough downfield throws to those receivers. This is the part of the game that worries me the most. Cardinals rookie cornerback Brandon Williams will be the one to attack and not, uh, Patrick Peterson. Obvs.

Defensive Gameplan

Look out, Carson Palmer. It’s funny to me that this defense is under the radar right now. They won’t be for long. When you have so many potential pass rushers facing a team that wants to get the ball downfield, well, this is where the game will be won or lost.

Let’s start with the base nickel package. I believe that Justin Coleman will be the fifth defensive back over rookie Cyrus Jones. Jones needs to be eased in, and his performance against the Giants was his weakest of the preseason. Jones will see time on 50-plus punt returns and could make a splash there.

Otherwise, we know the drills — Ryan on the big receiver (Floyd), Butler on the quicks (Brown(s)) and Coleman in the slot (Fitzgerald) and McCourty on the back end with Chung at strong safety.

Chung and Hightower are big keys against David Johnson, who’s probably going to hit full super star status this season. I trust the Pats to take away the deep ball, but Johnson is the underneath wild card, especially if the Pats are in their lighter sub-package. Often Hightower is the LB who covers the RBs, but I wonder if Johnson is enough of a freak that it makes more sense to put Collins on him.

Up front I think we primarily see Hightower and Collins behind a rotating defensive front four. Long — Branch — Brown — Sheard are the starters. Flowers will sub at defensive end. Anthony Johnson should be the sub pass rusher for Branch.

Where things start to get complicated is when you factor in Barkevious Mingo and Eric Rowe. It’s unlikely either will have a significant role this week, but there’s just enough unpredictability there that no one will quite know what to expect if they enter the game. Including the Cardinals. I’m not expecting McClellin to play, but if he does it’s the same thing. He’d likely be a rotational defensive end piece in sub-packages.

It will be fascinating to see what those three players bring to the defense as the season progresses.

But for Week 1, the Pats have plenty of defensive firepower to get after Palmer and force him into mistakes. It should be exciting to watch.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Stop David Johnson — Johnson will be the key offensive piece for the Cardinals as Carson Palmer starts to fade into the sunset. How close it Palmer to that right now? I think pretty close. At least to the point where the Patriots take away Johnson and make Palmer beat them throwing deep or to tight end Darren Fells. The three key guys vs. Johnson are Chung (on early downs vs. run), Hightower and Collins (in sub). Without a major tight end threat to worry about, the Pats can focus their best resources on Johnson. I believe it will be Collins’ task.

2. Make it easy on Jimmy — This will be done by getting four yards on the ground on first down and forcing the Cardinals to reveal their defensive coverages with the two tight end sets. If the Pats consistently do these two things it will keep Jimmy out of third-and-longs and make his pass progression reads extremely easy. Now easy reads doesn’t mean easy execution, but that’s as good as the Pats can do for Jimmy and it’s a lot more than most first time starting quarterbacks get in this league.

3. No turnovers — Look, this could be the only point of emphasis every week, but with Jimmy under center it’s even more important. I don’t care what his passing stats are outside of “no interceptions, no fumbles”. That’s all that matters and if both those numbers are zero, the Pats should win the game.

4. Tackle — The simplest of all football fundamentals is vitally important early in the season. Week 1 is always sloppy. Nobody has had enough tackling in preseason or training camp and everyone’s rusty. Usually you can throw everything out the window for Week 1. The better fundamental team will win.

5. Win — Always the fifth key, it’s a reminder that winning is all that matters. Jimmy’s performance will be put under the microscope but we can’t lose sight of the fact that Tom Brady will be back in three weeks and then we might never see Jimmy Garoppolo under center again for the Patriots. But truth be told, this isn’t anywhere close to a must-win game. Week one, out of conference games should have little bearing on the season in January, but it would be nice to beat a good team in their home stadium and get things off to a good start.

 

Prediction: Patriots 17, Cardinals 7

The Patriots defense makes a statement. Jimmy does just enough.