Welp, this is it, the game we’ve all had circled is finally here and it’s not surprising that Tom Brady
and the Pats have taken a “Deflategate? What was that?” approach this week. We won’t hear them say anything this week about what this game really means to them, but we’ll certainly see it more and more in their eyes and on their faces as Sunday’s game goes on, especially if they’re up a few scores like many are expecting.
As much as I’d love to jump on the “it’s going to be a bloodbath!!” bandwagon, it’s hard for me to look at a game against the Colts in Indy and write it off. Despite how bad the Colts have looked. Despite Andrew Luck’s injury. Despite the revenge angle. This is still a talented team and I’d be worried if the Pats were more focused on “revenge” than beating a football team that badly needs a win in their own house.
Is this the boring take? Probably. But I’ve seen close games with far less talented teams and while I really love what the Pats are doing on both sides of the ball, I can’t help but think this will be their toughest test yet. I hope I’m wrong. I hope it’s a bloodbath. But I still have to write a gameplan and sweat it out because the game will start out 0-0 as we all known.
Here’s what I think the Pats need to do to roll over the Deflategate cry babies…
Offensive Gameplan
It might be easy to look at the rushing numbers the Patriots have put up on the Colts the last three games and think they’ll just line up and run it down their throats once again, but I don’t think the Pats should stray from what has been unstoppable so far – the quick passing game with Dion Lewis
at running back.
The Colts are 25th in pass defense DVOA. They’re 28th in passing yards allowed-per-game. Brian Hoyer put 312 yards on them. So yeah, I think that’s the place to attack first, and is there really anything wrong with letting Tom Brady go to work on them? I think he’ll be pretty locked in on this one.
The time for Blount will come, but he’s never at his best right at the start of the game. The defense needs to be on their heels a bit, even a little tired, and that’s when Blount is a beast to deal with.
So it’s really not that complicated on offense. The Pats do what they do and everyone knows what they do. They even know somewhat how to stop it. But knowing and doing it for 60 minutes are two different things.
Nothing would shock me more than to see a flat Patriots offense out of the gate in this one. Defensively they might give up some early yards, but I expect the offense to come out on fire. Not even the loss of Nate Solder changes that.
Spread the Colts out and then go to work with the scalpel, slowly carving them up flay by flay. Then when the time is right, pound it for the win with Blount.
Defensive Gameplan
Things could be a little interesting for the defense this week as I’m fascinated to see how they match Hilton-Johnson-Moncrief-Fleener in the passing game. Last year they matched them up with their corners and it was incredibly effective. Now the depth at corner is thin (Tarrell Brown missed Thursday’s practice and could be questionable) and they don’t have the same flexibility they had with Browner-Revis-Arrington.
Now I know the Colts WR’s havent’ exactly set the world on fire like many expected, but there is plenty of talent there and it’s likely just a matter of time before they start clicking, especially at home.
Andrew Luck’s injury certainly makes it more of an uphill battle at this point than it might be if he were healthy. I can’t imagine getting blasted by Jamie Collins is going to help his shoulder much.
Assuming Luck plays, I think this is another “dare them to run it” game. Maybe that plays into the Colts wanting to keep Luck clean, and maybe Frank Gore can handle 25-30 carries and have a good game, but it feels like the best way to win.
I expect Brady and the Pats offense to put up points. The only chance the Colts really have is to make it an aerial shootout to keep up. So I’d expect a similar gameplan to the Steelers one, lots of defensive backs, Harmon on the back end, McCourty coming down on Fleener on third down.
But whether or not they match receivers with corners is a big question for me. The size on Moncrief is a concern as is the speed of Hilton, but there’s no clear matchups. So perhaps just playing sides is the best call, employing a jam and over-the-top help on Hilton once again.
There’s no question if Luck plays they must attack him. The sooner Collins/Sheard/etc. lay some big hits on him the sooner the Colts passing game could fall apart.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Hit Luck: Not rocket science here on a quarterback coming off a shoulder injury needs to be hit early and often. Finally the Pats have the kind of pass rushers that should be respected. Collins/Hightower/Sheard/Chander/Ninkovich are huge keys to this and should all see plenty of time on the field (assuming Hightower’s rib ain’t no thang). If Luck is okay to go we have to find out just how “okay” he is.
2. Manage Emotions: They won’t admit it but the Patriots will be fired up for this one. Luckily they’re used to big games and shouldn’t let their emotions get the better of them. Their focus on the game this week is all part of that. They’re on the road in a hostile environment so it’s important to get off to a quietly efficient start. Stick to the gameplan and DO YOUR JOB. As things fall into place then the emotions can seep out a bit.
3. Throw to Score, Run To Win: We’re not re-inventing the wheel this week offensively. Dion Lewis should have as much to prove as anybody to a team that let him go after just a week in their facility. He’s been huge this year and seemingly getting better every week. Make the Colts deal with him and the passing game first, then bring in the Blount Force Trauma to finish them.
4. Don’t Allow Explosive Plays: As I mentioned, the Colts only real chance in this one is to put up a bunch of yards and points quickly through the air. Their receivers are talented and should test our secondary like they haven’t been tested. But if the Pats’ defense keeps everything in front of them, tackles well and forces long drives they should be okay. Andrew Luck has yet to prove he can sustain drives without turnovers, even when healthy. Allowing big plays is what will get New England out of their comfort area and into trouble.
5. Win: Aside from the Deflategate revenge angle what this game really means to the 2015 Patriots is the chance to beat one of the better teams in the AFC in their own house and give themselves a solid tie-breaker for the playoff seeding. Moving to 5-0 before they have two good divisional tests back-to-back at home with in five days of each other will put the Pats in good position. Yes it will feel great to put another nail in the Colts season, but it’s not going to come easy, at least in the first half.