High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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Let’s start with a quick look at the opponents the Patriots have played. As a rule, I take September with a grain of salt. Guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick tear September defenses up because no one’s really tackled yet and the Patriots especially are still in experiment mode. Remember Keionta Davis? Guys like him get a long look before going to the bench, unlikely to return. Stuff like that happens every September and again, has no impact on who the defense actually will be in November/December/January and hopefully, February.

The Jaguars dominated the Patriots defense, no question, but that was their Super Bowl and we see what has happened since. A game in stifling Florida heat against a young team with everything to prove in Week 2 sure looked ugly for the Pats. But just as the Jags aren’t the unstoppable wrecking ball they looked like in that one game, the Patriots defense was not the lackluster dominated squad that gave up 24 points on the Jags first four possessions.

The loss in Detroit was disconcerting, but again, it looked like a sloppy September game again with mostly just bad fundamentals. Those are the hardest kind of games to reassure people about because it can look so ugly yet is so unindicative. When you don’t get off blocks and tackle you stink on defense. But eventually, Patriots defenses always start getting off blocks and making tackles as we started to see in the win streak that began the following week when they gave up just 172 total yards to the Dolphins.

Now the next three games are why everyone is losing their minds. Three-straight wins but while giving up over 400 yards and 95 total points. Perhaps most telling in those games though is the Patriots had six giveaways and seven takeaways. That illustrates the kind of highs and lows these games have had. Two of the three needed to be won in the 4th, quarter, which they were.

I get complaining about the Bears game, but against the explosive Kansas City Chiefs, how can anyone really look at that win and complain? You trade punches with a team that is on a record-setting offensive pace. That’s the NFL now and was clear proof that despite any shortcomings the Patriots can stick with anyone in a one-game situation.

Now, I’m not without my concerns about this Patriots defense. I worry if the D-Mac-Harmon-Chung trio is getting too long in the tooth. Maybe they just have big game fatigue, but those guys have been the defensive stalwarts of the recent Super Bowl runs and they’ve been far too inconsistent dating back to the 2017 opener.

The lack of athleticism at the second level was a problem last year and wasn’t really addressed this offseason, although Ja’Whaun Bentley sure looked like he would’ve made a difference there. When Chung is off his game teams can attack the Pats with crossers, up the seam and check-downs to backs. But given the Belichick conservative defensive philosophy, I think he looks at those factors as less important than stopping the run and not giving up big plays. Just like it’s a safe bet the Bears weren’t going to win the game leaning heavily on Mitch Trubisky broken play scrambles.

Of 13 giveaways this year, 7 resulted in touchdowns, including the 6 of the last 8. One went for a FG.

Pats D gotta be better on quick change situations. Less weird tipped ball interceptions would help too.

— Mike Dussault (@PatsPropaganda) October 23, 2018

The defense is 17th in 20+ plays allowed and was 13th overall in rush defense DVOA (thru Week 6). They’re 17th in the red zone. Not great but not sky-is-falling bad like some are suggesting. They’re t-5th in takeaways, offsetting t-25th in giveaways.

The giveaway/takeaway ratio is most interesting to me and perhaps most indicative of what’s different this year that people can’t quick seem to put their finger on. This year they have 14 takeaways and 13 giveaways through seven games. Last year, they had 18 takeaways to 12 giveaways. Add in that they haven’t been good enough defensively on quick-change situations and that right there is why things feel a little different this year.

The good news? Those weird interceptions should cease. And the defense has gotten way better at critical takeaways from last year. A Patriots defense that takes the ball away is darn near unbeatable. The Patriots defense has returned to their ballhawking ways.

I remain assured this is the same old kind of Patriots defense we’ve become used to. They’re built to win. They do need to be better but when they’re on, they’re as good as any defense out there. Really. Finding consistency is a season-long goal and once the weird tipped ball giveaways subside the defense will magically look a lot better. And if they continue to get takeaways like they have been, the ceiling will be even higher than anyone is expecting.