The Patriots finished off their 2016 season with a convincing, if not slightly scary, 35-14 win over the playoff-bound Dolphins. New England capped off a 14-2 campaign, locking up the top seed in the AFC and looking far more like a Super Bowl contender than 2015’s squad that blew their last two.
The rest of Sunday around the NFL unfolded exactly how the Patriots would’ve scripted it. The Chiefs snagged the second seed, while the Raiders fell to the fifth. Now the Pats await the lowest remaining seed, either Houston, Oakland or Miami. I am a-okay with all of them.
Overall, the 2016 was a fascinating campaign that began with Jimmy Garoppolo, got a dash of Jacoby Brissett before a near-flawless Tom Brady took over and the team never looked back after a goal-line-stop loss to the Seahawks.
A whole lot more on the 2016 season, the playoff outlook, and yes, a thank-Hoodie-nobody got hurt win in Miami in the Posits…
The longest fumble return in #Patriots history: https://t.co/oejSkyA6Dz
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 1, 2017
Harpooning the Dolphins
— Let’s get the Dolphins game out of the way first because we’re all ready to turn the page to the real season, aka the playoffs. Big picture, it’s encouraging to see how the Pats came out of the gate. I know it wasn’t all perfect, the offense stalled at times and the defense looked the worst they’ve looked in weeks on three long drives, two of which ended in touchdowns. But the way they attacked this game — two-straight TDs on offense, a three-and-out then interception from the defense — showed how locked in this team was on finishing the season strong. That bodes well for the playoffs.
— I haven’t talked much about Michael Floyd because I wasn’t sure if he’d end up being a factor, but he was certainly a factor on Sunday. The touchdown where he carried four Dolphins with him, then the killer block were two plays that are right in BB’s g-spot. That kind of extra effort and downfield blocking are two points Belichick is always noting on his Belestrator Patriots.com film sessions.
So now what, especially if Danny Amendola is good to go? Malcolm Mitchell should be ready to go for the AFCDG, giving the Patriots perhaps their deepest and most unique receiving corps ever. But they can’t all dress. Choosing who sits could be a tough decision. It’s a good problem to have, especially when you consider the Pats had no healthy receivers last year at this time. Amendola is vital, if he’s good he goes. Reliable Mitchell and Hogan do a lot of the same things, while Floyd has size that could challenge matchups.
— Watching Tom Brady set records never gets old, eh? Brady passed Dan Marino for fourth all-time in passing yardage and had the all-time best TD/INT ratio (28-2, 14.1 percent) in 2016. The Patriots quarterback group set a record with just two interceptions all year. They’ll be an area of focus this offseason and much discussion, but you can’t say Brady lost anything at all off his game in 2016.
1⃣1⃣ goes 7⃣7⃣ yards. ‼, @edelman11! https://t.co/10bS0wLwgD
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 1, 2017
— Julian Edelman had a career day with eight catches for 151 yards including a 77-yard touchdown. Like most of this Patriots team, Edelman has been picking up steam all year. Playing all 16 games with a 100 catch/1,000 yard season is all you can ask. He’s the only real key on the Patriots offense and he’ll be needed for plenty of clutch third down plays over the next three games. I’d just prefer Amendola on punt returns to protect the critical and fearless Edelman.
— Defensively there were a few ugly drives, where Matt Moore moved the ball at will right down the field and into the end zone. Most of this success came underneath on those three drives. Once the Patriots moved to more of their oft-played Cover 2, they shut it down. Poor tackling and the Dolphins solid execution kept the drives alive. It wasn’t their best day, but they bounced back.
I still feel pretty good about the defense’s chances because they continued to force turnovers. They weren’t earlier in the year, that’s what killed them. And yes, they might give up a couple touchdown drives but they always get back on track. They’re league best points-per-game is testament to that.
And let’s face it, they’re looking at a backup quarterback then Alex Smith or Big Ben. More on that…
The Playoffs
— Houston, Oakland, Miami. One of those three is coming to Foxborough. My hope? Oakland. Though there’s something Belichickian evil about ending BOB, RAC, Vrabel, Big Vince et al’s season. No, I want Oakland so this playoff run can align with Brady’s first playoff run. This time he won’t need the Tuck Rule. I trust Pittsburgh to take care of business against the stupid Dolphins and if they don’t then ha ha. OAK-PITT-NYG: Brady Legacy Tour
— The Steelers scare me more than the Chiefs, but I think either is capable of putting together a win in Foxborough. KC is #2 in turnover margin, PIT is 13th. The Steeler weaponry is lethal, and the Patriots have gotten off easy recently with key PIT injuries and suspensions. Still, Malcolm Butler has seen Antonio Brown twice now, still a tough matchup, but that experience helps. The run defense vs. LeVeon Bell and Roethlisberger’s turnovers would decide it.
— The weak spot of the Pats defense, the underneath passing game, is the bread and butter of Alex Smith. They have the defensive pieces to attack Brady and a scary returner. The Chiefs have been to Foxborough once before and played the Pats tough. If they don’t turn the ball over and execute, they should put up 14-17 points. Throw in a punt return score from Tyreek Hill or a Patriots fumble that leads to points and ruh-roh.
— Whoever it is I think the Patriots are as primed as ever for a Super Bowl run. The biggest thing, they’re healthy. Losing only Gronk was a miracle. The entire team (except Floyd) has a ton of familiarity with their teammates, coaches and scheme. They’re deep and should be relatively fresh, especially at critical pass rush spots.
— Hard not to get exciting thinking about a Pats-Cowboys Super Bowl, but I can’t lie, I’d really like a third shot at the Giants. I refuse to believe Eli Manning could beat Tom Brady THREE TIMES! No! And really, Eli should be there to see Brady still get the most Super Bowls ever despite SBs 42/46.
— I’ll break it down simple. No matter the opponents, the two AFC games are about winning the turnover battle. The Super Bowl will be about playing 60 minutes. That’s how it always goes. This Patriots team can do both, and despite any perceived weaknesses or strengths, that’s all that really matters now.
— What a breakout season for Trey Flowers. The Patriots were getting old at defensive end. Most of us thought Jabaal Sheard would emerge, instead it was Flowers. “Technique” as the announcers said his nickname is, has emerged as a force as an interior pass rusher, the thing I have longed most for since the days of Mike Wright. He seems to be showing up every week now (five tackles, two QB hits) and is the biggest key to the defense’s improvement.
— The Patriots dream at running back is clear now, a blend of Lewis then Blount, with James White primarily a third down pass catcher. James Develin has been a rock at fullback. Going into the playoffs with all four healthy is HUGE. They pose numerous matchup problems that take pressure off Brady. The running backs are the true x-factors in this playoff run. Is this the most balanced Patriots offense ever? Something to investigate, but they sure feel like it.
— Stat that scares me: Brady two interceptions. If the Pats are going down I can already hear “and he had just two interceptions in the regular season!”
Now, a week off to get healthy and try to enjoy the best two football weekends of the season. We’re on to a run at number five.