Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl 51 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Here we go again. The Patriots are headed to an NFL-record ninth Super Bowl, their seventh under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and have a chance to firmly place themselves atop the history books in almost every regard.

Going to the Super Bowl never gets old. It’s wall-to-wall media coverage of your team as their season is dissected by all the best analysts. The nerves this week have been pretty tame. There’s not much to hate about the Falcons, but I’m still looking very forward to smashing them.

It’s a truly formidable test for the Patriots defense. This was supposed to be a culmination year, when all the great drafting on the defensive side of the ball since 2012 really paid off. And in a roundabout way, it still might be.

Plenty of Boston media jackasses who would love nothing more than to see the Patriots’ defense collapse so they can spend all offseason saying “toldya!”… I don’t believe the defense will let us down like that.

If they shut down this Falcons attack all that talk will be put to rest forever, along with countless other horrible takes and doubts. Unless Brady goes ham and then it doesn’t really matter how the defense plays. Because barring a couple weird turnovers, the Patriots offense should have their way with the Falcons’ defense.

I haven’t researched an opponent more in-depth than I have with the Falcons these last two weeks, and, as BB would say, the hay is in the barn. Let’s break it down in the final gameplan of the 2016 season!

Offensive Gameplan

To beat Tom Brady in the playoffs you must get pass rush pressure, especially up the middle. Starting with the Giants in SB42 this has been the formula — veteran defenses with a variety of pass rushers get the Patriots offense off track early, then keep Brady off track throughout. And even then it’s almost not enough, see last year’s AFCCG.

Can the Falcons’ front win the battles all game long? It comes down to Grady Jarrett (vs. Joe Thuney) inside and Vic Beasley (vs. Marcus Cannon) off the edge. Those are the guys who must play with their hair on fire if the Falcons have any hope of getting to Brady for the entire game.

The Falcons have blitzed a ton this postseason, from Bill Barnwell:

The Falcons’ 36 percent blitz rate in the playoffs would have ranked fifth during the regular season, and their 44.9 percent pressure rate would’ve been the best in football by a considerable margin. During the regular season, the Falcons turned 35.8 percent of their blitzes into pressure, which was 19th in the league. This postseason, Quinn’s defense has turned 53.1 of its blitzes into a quarterback pressure.

If you have to blitz Brady to get pressure, you’re dead:

When defenses blitzed him this year, Brady went 61-of-99 for 838 yards with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, taking just two sacks in the process. His 125.7 passer rating and 90.4 QBR both ranked No. 1 overall. Over the past three years, Brady has posted a league-best 92.2 QBR and 113.6 passer rating against blitzes while taking sacks just 2.7 percent of the time, all the best in the league by a comfortable margin.

This leaves the door open for Dan Quinn to make some unexpected twists to his gameplan as Greg Bedard suggested, just like Wade Phillips did last AFCCG. As Eric Mangini said, against Brady, “if you’re not lying (presnap) you’re not trying”. The Falcons young defense, that features four rookies, including both middle linebackers and two defensive backs, is going to have to surprise the Patriots with something.

The Patriots stable of running backs is a whole other problem for the Falcons, especially Dion Lewis, who the Patriots are comfortable with in either role as an early-down, between-the-tackles runner or a pass catcher. Combine that with this:

Atlanta put five men or fewer in the box 66 times this season, 22 more times than anybody else in football. Offenses averaged 6.3 yards per carry on those runs and generated 17 first downs while adding 7.7 expected points to their ledger.

With Lewis in the game, even with fullback James Develin in as well, the Patriots can pick either poison for the Falcons’ defense. They’ll go spread with that grouping just as easily as they’ll run an I-formation power set. Yes, Tom Brady is a historical problem, but the Patriots’ diversity on offense and their willingness to stick with the run is what truly presents the most problems for the Falcons.

Finally I must touch on the Yards-After-Catch stat which I believe says so much about this match up. If the Falcons struggle to get the Patriots’ receivers down it’s going to be a long night for them.

Defensive Gameplan

I’ve thought and written a lot about this matchup the past two weeks. When you boil it all down, I think the Falcons will win or lose this game based on how well Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel play. While I was tempted to stick Logan Ryan on Julio Jones, since Ryan has done well in the past against similar-sized receivers like Demaryius Thomas, I think Malcolm Butler will get the call.

That leaves Ryan on Gabriel, and Eric Rowe on Sanu, and those are that where the game will be decided. Just like all the no names that put daggers in the Pats backs in the Super Bowl like David Tyree, Mario Manningham and almost Chris Matthews, it’s the third and fourth options that will be critical to the Falcons’ chances.

Rowe and Ryan cannot get beat deep or it’s likely going for six, especially with the speed of Gabriel. They likely won’t have much help as Devin McCourty will gravitate towards Jones’ side of the field. The Falcons know this. They will isolate Rowe especially and attack him.

Jones will make his plays, but as long as he’s quickly brought down and not sprinting down the field, his impact can be absorbed.

While I see some Cover-2 snaps, the coverage of the game should be Cover-1 Man, with Patrick Chung in the box. With that package, similar to what the Eagles did when they held the Falcons to season lows in yardage and points, the Pats should be well suited to attack all the different ways Atlanta uses their running backs.

Devonta Freeman and Tevon Coleman are both extremely dangerous, both running and receiving. Containing them is the first critical part of the game plan. Chung is a huge key because of Atlanta’s versatility on offense. They’ll throw out of heavy sets just as easily as the Patriots will.

Chung’s an excellent tackler and will be critical in pass coverage on the two backs. The screens, the play action and presnap motion, all of it is designed to cause confusion and open up big running and passing lanes. Chung needs to be a force in the box against the running backs.

What the Falcons will look to do is get the Patriots in sub and then attack Kyle Van Noy in coverage. Van Noy forced a fumble against the Steelers, he better be ready to see even more action coming his way this week. They will try to run right at him, even in long yardage.

For all the criticism of the Patriots defense, here are facts — this is their best run defense DVOA under Bill Belichick. DVOA is adjusted for opponent so don’t tell me they haven’t played any good running teams. They are also excellent tacklers. So regardless of the QBs they’ve faced or not faced, this is a very solid defense that forces you to execute 10+ play drives that end in touchdowns to beat them. They have short memories and rarely give up explosive plays.

The 2011 Patriots defense that went to Super Bowl 46? They stunk by every metric except turnovers, and they still almost pulled it off.

Add those facts up and the Patriots defense is well-suited to face this offense. They won’t give up 21 points.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Start Fast: Brady said Belichick had been constantly reminding them the Pats haven’t scored in the first quarter of a Super Bowl, unless you go all the way back to 1996. Maybe that’s why each of these six Super Bowls have gone down to the very last play. The Patriots cannot get into an early hole. They certainly have the run/pass balance to climb out of a hole, but the quicker they put the pressure on the Atlanta offense, the quicker they can start to dismantle them. Atlanta was 29th in run defense DVOA, a problem they avoid by getting the lead. But get ahead on them and start running Blount down their throat? That’s a recipe for major success. Belichick took the ball for the first time this season in the AFC Championship and he very well should do it again in the Super Bowl.

2. Figure Out Falcons Defensive Plan and Destroy It: Pre-snap motion will be critical for Brady to decipher what coverage concepts the Falcons are in and most importantly if/when they’re sending blitzers. There are plenty of spots to exploit on the Falcons defense and, (my other favorite quote from Eric Mangini about Brady) “if he knows it goes.” They should step up the pace at times, especially with Dion Lewis in the game, to prevent the Falcons from changing personnel as they like to do. Going fast could also confound the rookie defenders who are seeing Tom Brady for the first time under the bright lights of the Super Bowl. Overwhelm them and there will be busted coverages to take advantage of.

3. Stop Freeman & Coleman: I am not afraid of the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones show beating the Patriots. We’ve seen this season that Jones can still have gaudy numbers in losses. No, I think the Patriots win or lose if they stop the spectrum of problems that Freeman and Coleman present. If the screens, play actions and misdirection plays are snuffed out, like the Eagles snuffed them out, the Falcons can be slowed. Alan Branch and Malcom Brown will be huge keys as they’ve been all year with the outstanding seasons they’ve had. Ultimately, it just boils down to tackling the elusive running backs, especially in space.

4. 60 minutes: It’s difficult to imagine a Super Bowl that doesn’t come down to one last heart-stopping play and that’s why the Patriots must be prepared to play their hardest for every last second. Whether they get out to an early lead, or fall into an early hole, we know they’re mentally tough enough to just keep focusing on the next play. There will be ups and downs, but they (and us fans!) can’t get caught up in who wins the little battles. Play a full game. Win the war. Do Your Job. Live it. Love it.

5. Win: I’m not even going to attempt to put what five Super Bowl championships would mean into words yet. There will be plenty of time for that this offseason if we’re so lucky. But yeah, it would be huge. Legendary. Historic. Let’s hope that’s what we’re spending next six months weighing. For now, let’s just get the win and let all the legacy discussion sort itself out afterwards.

Prediction: I feel really good about this game going in. The Patriots match up well across the board, and their defense has a chance to definitively shut up all those who think they’re overrated. They must protect the ball. They must tackle. There aren’t two more critical pieces of the puzzle. If they play sloppy the Falcons will win. But I don’t expect sloppy. I expect the crowning achievement of the Belichick/Brady era.

Patriots 31, Falcons 20