Patriots Gameplan: AFC Divisional Game vs. Los Angeles Chargers

At this stage of the Patriots dynasty, the regular season is prologue. After a week off to rest up, the real season starts now, against the Chargers in the Divisional Round.

The Patriots have mostly owned the Chargers for the past decade-plus. There were notable losses in 2005 and 2008 with Matt Cassel at the helm, but outside of those the Patriots have dominated Phillip Rivers’ team, including ending their season twice, in 2006 and 2007.

It’s been a long time since then and the Chargers have remade themselves and stayed healthy for the first time in a long time, making them a viable threat to the Patriots hopes of getting to their eighth-straight (!) AFC Championship game.

What do the Pats have to do to give Everything They’ve Got and Beat LA? Here’s the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

This season the Patriots have become one of the most balanced teams of the dynasty, breaking 2000 total yards rushing for the first time since 2013. The parallels to the 2013 offensive reset team have been drawn frequently, but the 2018 team is far more dangerous than the one that flamed out in Denver.

While I think the catalyst this season was Sony Michel I think they’ll get away from running him into the road block that exists in the middle of the Chargers defensive line. Instead, I think the two key pieces this week are James White and Julian Edelman in the short passing game.

Rex Burkhead should also chip in with some significant plays and outside of that trio, it will be up to the remaining pieces to chip in with 2-3 plays each. Gronk, Hogan, Dorsett and Patterson all need at least one key catch. If Michel breaks free for a big gainer or two it’s just cherry on top. Hopefully he can just be the finisher this week (he’d be a much bigger part vs. KC).

Simply put, this gameplan is about what Brady has done best over his career — the scalpel. Tear the Chargers apart with quick short pass after quick short pass. Get them off balance then boom, a trick play to Patterson or a long shot to Hogan or Gronk up the seam and open up the lead.

The way to a loss is running Michel into the wall on first and second down, then forcing it to Hogan and Dorsett on third-and-long. That’s the sputtering offense we saw on the road this year.

Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are problems and the Chargers secondary is excellent, but the Patriots have seen plenty of playoff defenses like this one over the years, and the way to beat is to not let them get into the rhythm they want. Keep them off balance and attack with pace that never lets them get comfortable.

Defensive Gameplan

The strength of the Patriots defense is the secondary, with centerpiece Stephon Gilmore a good bet to match up on Keenan Allen. Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams both have good size that helps their matchups against J.C. Jackson and Jason McCourty, likely the area where this game will be won or lost if all goes to plan for the Pats.

The return of Hunter Henry from a torn ACL in May is an interesting development and potentially a problem. It’s not often you see someone lost in OTAs but stashed on IR then returning in the second round of the playoffs. Whether Henry is effective or it’s still Antonio Gates, Patrick Chung will be a big focus because the majority of the front’s attention must go to the biggest key of the game — STOPPING MELVIN GORDON.

If the Patriots defense plays the kind of solid game they’ve turned in most of the year at home, most of the matchups are a wash. If Gilmore takes away Allen and Chung handles the tight end matchup, the game hinges on Gordon on the ground and through the air. He is the x-factor.

Gordon was on a tear pre-knee injury during the middle of the season when he was getting close to 20 carries and five targets per game. After getting injured, Gordon’s numbers fell and the Chargers haven’t broken 23 points in the last three games. Gordon had 17 carries for just 40 yards and one target last week against the Ravens, and that included sustain another knee injury that limited him all week.

This is not a peaking Chargers offense, it’s one that has been holding on and making just enough plays to win. That kind of team can still be very dangerous in the playoffs, but it’s just like the 2007 Patriots were fading down the stretch only to put up a season-low for points and yards in the last game. The Chargers are primed for that kind of game and the Pats have the pieces to give it to them.

The front seven will win or lose this game based on how well they shut down Gordon. If the tackles have one of their inconsistent road games, if Trey Flowers and Dietrich Wise are losing the edge, if Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts aren’t making sure tackles, or if Hightower is chasing Gordon in coverage, it’s a recipe for a loss.

What the Patriots want is to force Phillip Rivers to beat them with the Williams’, Austin Ekeler and Henry/Gates. Having a shutdown corner and Gordon battling a knee injury certainly helps that cause and it’s why I really like this matchup far better than if there was a running quarterback to worry about too.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Melvin Gordon – There is no bigger key. He carries with him nearly all the Chargers’ chances of the upset. If he’s ineffective their entire offense should be stalled enough from Brady and the offense to put up the necessary points to win.
2. Gilmore on Allen – This is why the Patriots paid Stephon Gilmore the big bucks, to take an “A” receiver like Allen out of the game. Allen is the most targeted player on third down, the down where Gilmore must shine because he’ll be tested.
3. James White – I think White is everything in this game for the offense, the engine that needs to keep the offense on track. Rex Burkhead could also have a guest starring role because his skillset is similar in the passing game, plus he has a bit more effectiveness on the ground.
4. Julian Edelman on Third Down – Anyone else really missing not having clutch Danny Amendola for this playoff game? Amendola rose up in Edelman’s absence last year and now Jules must do the same without Danny. Who else can the Pats count go to on third-and-six? Edelman must come up with some key catches and then everyone else can settle into their roles.
5. Win – It’s hard to think the Pats will waltz through this one like they have in some recent divisional games and it’s a good bet the game will be up for grabs in the fourth quarter. This is one of the last Tom Brady playoff games. Let’s face it, there’s less than 10 of these left and at home, it’s his time to shine and once again silence the doubters who are just as present as they were when he was in his first playoff game.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Chargers 21