It’s Week 2 already as the Patriots face their AFC East rival the Miami Dolphins in New England’s home opener of the 2016 season. The Patriot are still smarting over a Week 17 loss in Miami last season, with Bill Belichick coming right out and mentioning the “sickening” loss in his weekly press conference.
The Dolphins have a new coach in Adam Gase, and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Coming off an ugly loss to the Seahawks, a win in New England would get the Dolphins season immediately back on track. However Miami hasn’t won in Foxboro since 2008’s Wildcat game.
Do they have another innovative gameplan to pull off the upset? Here my Patriots gameplan to prevent it…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4xKSZaHyBA
Offensive Gameplan
Take a look back at last year’s games against the Dolphins and it seems pretty clear the Patriots wanted to feature their power run game early and often. The first game it worked. LeGarrette Blount had 72 yards on 17 carries and loosened up the defense early on to get things going. Brady ended up with 356 passing yards and four touchdowns. He was sacked just twice.
In the re-match, Blount was on IR, and his replacement Stephen Jackson had just 14 carries for 35 yards. Brady completed just 12 passes for 134 yards and no touchdowns.
Now, with James Develin and Blount both in the mix, not to mention Jimmy Garoppolo under center, and maybe no Nate Solder or Rob Gronkowski again, the power run game makes all the sense in the world. If Blount gets going, the game will play into the Patriots hands.
The Pats could also get a couple breaks with Mario Williams (concussion) and Jordan Phillips (ankle) possibly out, or at least limited. This puts more heat on Cameron Wake, who the Dolphins hoped to reduce to just a pass rusher this season.
Rookie cornerback Xavien Howard should have a sizable target on his back in the passing game. On the other side, Byron Maxwell is a big corner who the Pats should force to play more horizontal coverage rather than attacking him downfield.
Perhaps the most game-breaking matchup will be Ndamukong Suh against the Patriots young interior offensive line that will likely feature second-year center David Andrews and two rookie guards — Joe Thuney and Ted Karras. Thuney looked spectacular against Calais Campbell last week but Suh is another huge challenge.
Defensive Gameplan
Dont’a Hightower was missing from practice, and his probably absence from this game is a big blow when it comes to containing Arian Foster and Ryan Tannehill off the read options, one of the primary engines of this offense. This will place Jonathan Freeny once again into the mix at linebacker. The Patriots run defense had a noticeable dropoff last season when they had to swap Hightower for Freeny, hopefully this year will be different. Expect the Dolphins to target Freeny with their runs. Foster showed he still has some zip and cutting ability against the Seahawks.
The kinda exciting news though, is that Hightower’s absence could open the door for Barkevious Mingo to get some snaps on passing downs, especially in long yardage situations. Mingo and Collins would form a crazy-athletic combo, though expect the Dolphins to test Mingo by running at him even in probable passing situations. Originally this offseason I had hoped Shea McClellin could take Freeny’s place on the depth chart, but he’s been used only on the edge, and was relatively lackluster at that in week one.
If Elandon Roberts inserted, I wouldn’t complain, he attacks the hole like they’ll need in this one. Belichick loves getting a look at everyone early in the season, this could be Roberts’ turn.
Coverage-wise the matchups that seem to track from last season would be Malcolm Butler on Jarvis Landry, Logan Ryan on Devante Parker (assuming he’s over his hamstring issue) and Justin Coleman on Kenny Stills. The Dolphins had success targetting Ryan with Parker in last season’s finale. Parker had his best game as a rookie with five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown, including a 46-yarder that he outjumped Ryan for. That will be a main matchup to watch.
But this game will be won or lost based on how well the defensive front plays. Discipline is key, as the Dolphins will run an assortment of packaged plays like zone reads and aren’t afraid to let Tannehill run with the ball either. The Pats must keep Tannehill in the pocket and force him to make reads and throws. This is usually prime Rob Ninkovich area, his absence will hurt. The Pats will need heads-up performances from Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard and Trey Flowers. Then it will be up to Collins, Freeny and possibly Mingo to take out the trash.
The Seahawks overwhelmed the Dolphins offensive line in week one, getting four sacks. The Pats will need to do the same, but in a way that prevents Tannehill from popping out and picking up yards, especially on third down.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Pound the Rock – There’s no secret here. It’s going to be LeGarrette Blount, James Develin and Martellus Bennett leading the charge right at Miami’s defensive front who’d prefer to be rushing the passer over stopping the run. With the Dolphins’ undersized linebackers it only feeds into this favorable Patriots matchup even more. And Jimmy should maintain his own awareness and run with it when the opportunities present themselves.
2. Pocket Discipline – This is one of those deceiving stats games where sacks won’t tell the whole story. The key is disciplined rush that keeps Tannehill in the pocket. If the ends are rushing past him, allowing him to squirt out and pick up easy yards, it will get the Dolphins offense into gear. Anthony Johnson is one guy who set the world on fire in the preseason and was ineffective against the Cardinals. He’s an old Dolphin. Would love to see him have a big game.
3. No Turnovers – If you told me the Pats would lose the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and still win I’d have fought you to the death. Early in the season turnovers are everything. They’re always important but right now, when teams are still sloppy and not quite hitting on all cylinders, it’s the quick turns in the game that have the biggest impact. The Pats failed this test last week and still escaped. They can’t expect to do it two weeks in a row.
4. Watch the Deep Shots – The core tenet of Belichick’s defense is not getting beat over the top, and with Landry, Stills and Parker, the Dolphins are going to take their share of downfield shots. Just like turnovers, deep passes can quickly change the dynamic of a game. The Dolphins had some success last year taking shots on Logan Ryan with Parker. With so much focus on the front seven, the back end can’t fall asleep.
5. Win – As always this is all that ultimately matters. Moving to 1-0 in the division, staring out 2-0 and getting halfway through the Jimmy 2016 Tour without a blemish would be quite the accomplishment. It’s a quick turnaround to the Texans on Thursday night (probably a good reason not to push the Hamstring Squad) and that will be the most challenging game left for JFG. Letting the Dolphins steal this one could come back to haunt the Patriots and potentially make Week 17’s rematch in Miami meaningful. We don’t want that.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Dolphins 13