It’s hard to believe we’re already back in another Super Bowl. So much of the 2017 season was a blur of 28-3 and stupid storylines, few of which had much of anything to do with actual football. There were usually catastrophic injuries that somehow this Pats team overcame to get here and yes, a couple exciting wins, but mostly I remember noise.

Well, all those are out the window now. It’s all about one game and and another chance for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to raise the bar even further on what has been a run unlike any other in sports history. But as we all know, these games are never easy. They’re stressful and the highest of drama.

The Eagles are a very tough opponent for the Patriots. Maybe they don’t have the flash of the 2001 Rams’ offense or the 2016 Falcons offense or the 2014 Seahawks defense, but they’re a good football team that has overcome a ton that would’ve torpedoed most teams. They’re balanced and have all the right pieces to challenge the Patriots’ weaknesses.Their resiliency is remarkable and the sign of a team that won’t wilt in the face of the Patriots’ dynasty.

The Patriots will certainly have to earn their sixth title just like they earned the five before it, with a 60-minute effort that will take every last second and maybe even a miracle catch or two. I’m not even sure my heart is ready for another one of these games, but here we go.

This is the gameplan to get it done and hang another banner.

 

Offensive Gameplan

The popular theory in the two weeks leading up to this game is for the Patriots to push the pace and not let the Eagles rotate in and out their potent front players who run nine deep. But this isn’t 2011 when the Pats had 211 no-huddle snaps. In 2017 they had just 53.  The no-huddle is now a tool in then toolbox but not a gameplan. So instead of focusing on matchups and specifics, I just want to focus on the Patriots doing what they do best.

What I think this game against the Eagles boils down to is the Patriots’ strengths. Their best players must lead the way, and that’s in the sense of the 2017 team, not the “oh it’s the Patriots with Brady chucking it all over the yard.” That’s definitely not the recipe for success this year. No, this year the true teeth of the Patriots offense is their run game, and when it’s clicking it’s what makes them unstoppable.

Dion Lewis is my key guy and he must rebound from his worst game in two months. How the Patriots won without Lewis kick starting things last week is one of the most remarkable things about the AFC Championship game. This year everything has started with Lewis and this is the stage Lewis deserves.

The Eagles gave up a 100-yard rusher just six times this season and all three of their losses came in those games. Though the Falcons didn’t hit 100 they’re ground game was effective enough that it helped keep the game close. All year we wondered what would happen with the Pats’ incredible depth at running back, well here we are in the Super Bowl and all of them are healthy. No one is really talking about it at all this week but I think the Patriots can and should ride their ground game to their sixth title, in what would be their most unique victory of them all.

This is the Super Bowl that isn’t all about Tom Brady. Maybe this is the anomaly where it’s Lewis, Rex Burkhead and James White leading the way behind steamroller James Develin. Because I don’t think the Patriots win this game if it ends up being a repeat of SB49 and SB51 where Brady needs to use his arm and array of receivers to lead a unlikely or impossible comeback. It happened two weeks ago against the Jags, but it’s probably not going to happen again because that’s the game Philly wants.

The Eagles deep group of pass rushers will be ready for that game and they should be fresh deep into the fourth quarter unlike the Seahawks and Falcons, who were totally gassed with the game on the line. Edelman came through with some impossible catches and the Pats were able to overcome their slow starts. Not this time, this time it starts and ends with forcing the Eagles to chase Lewis and his cohorts all over the field.

Having Rob Gronkowski back is critical for this attack because he’s equally devastating in the passing game, where the Eagles do have their struggles against tight ends, and the ground game, where Gronk can help set the edge against Philly’s upfield edge rushers. Gronk is a game-changer and is the kind of attention-drawing player that complicates things for the Eagles.

Of course, Gronk, White and Danny Amendola must come through on third down. They’re the key trio keeping the chains going, but how successful they are will depend largely on how many yards Lewis and Burkhead are picking up on first and second down. Third downs are where Super Bowls are won or lost and no matter how well the Pats’ ground game clicks there will be clutch moments where that clutch trio is called upon.

This game will go one of two ways — the Pats will be able to get the run going and have a very likely chance of winning, or they won’t get the run going, end up in third-and-longs and likely end up losing. Maybe that sounds obvious, but that’s the 2017 Patriots offense. They’re not built for spread it out and chuck it up and down the field. Getting into that kind of game plays right into Philadelphia’s defensive strength.

Establish the run at all costs, then watch everything else fall into place as Dion Lewis electrifies the world with a dazzling performance.

Defensive Gameplan

Two big areas I focused on this week were defending the run-pass option and getting takeaways. Both are critical in this game and I’m concerned about this Patriots defense in both facets. But even when their weaknesses are exposed the Pats’ defense always seem to find a way to right the ship.

The AFC Championship only confirmed what we’ve seen all year from the Patriots’ defense — they’ll get shredded early but lock it down late. We’ve seen it all season, pretty much from the Tampa Bay game on and it still makes it easy to doubt them. But until they prove otherwise they’ve made plays when it counts time and again, so I have to assume that defense will show up again.

While the RPO should target the Pats’ weaknesses overall, the Eagles offense lacks the mobile quarterback element that has driven them the most nuts. Still, there are enough gadgets and versatility from the Eagles that they will provide plenty of challenges.

Alshon Jeffrey is an interesting problem, because size-wise I’d be tempted to put Eric Rowe on him, but Stephon Gilmore went to college with him and probably has familiarity that will give him an advantage. I don’t like Rowe in the slot on Nelson Agholor, who is the kind of receiver that can also be a big problem in the middle of the field. I’d consider sticking Malcolm Butler on him, especially with Butler being used as a blitzer more and more as the season progressed this year.

While I could see Nick Foles playing lights out like he did in the championship game and quarterbacks always seem to have very good games for at least a large chunk of the Super Bowls against the Patriots, there’s also a big part of me that thinks he’s going to fall back to earth.

Why? Because I think the Patriots fluid front is going to go above and beyond to disguise what they’re doing. Confusing Foles is paramount, especially when it comes to the RPO. He plays safe with the ball which means he won’t force throws so it’s up to the disguise to get him to hold it, then it’s up to the pass rush to finish him off. The risk of disguise is that you’re so busy trying to sow confusion that you’re not ready for the hard-charging Jay Ajayi or LeGarrette Blount blasting through the line of scrimmage.

The Eagles can do it all but the combination of a Bill Belichick gameplan and a defense that stays the course for 60 minutes would seem to have the necessary pieces to make enough stops to win. If they get a takeaway things would really look positive, but they’ll have to be ready to play every last second of this game and they will be.

Once again I look to the secondary to lead the way, but Trey Flowers must make the same kind of impactful plays he made last Super Bowl.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Lewis MVP: In my perfect gameplan Dion Lewis wins the MVP with 120+ rushing yards and a couple touchdowns. Brady sits back, makes some third-and-short throws and lets the ground game do the heavy lifting. It must be a total team commitment to not only running the ball, but utilizing all the backs underneath with short passes.
2. Chung/Van Noy: These two defenders are the keys to a Patriots win because they’ll be the ones in space dealing with the passes and runs that make the Eagles go. If they are the players making the tackles and the plays the Patriots defense should be getting off the field on third down. Every stop is another inch toward the title.
3. Execute: In games of this magnitude it’s important to focus on the simple things aka DYJ. So many of the Patriots’ Super Bowl struggles have been out of character, getting away from who they are and what they do best. The 2017 Patriots aren’t 18-0 — they have flaws, but they also have strengths and if they play to those strengths and don’t make stupid mistakes this will at least be a final possession game.
4. Don’t Blink: We’ve seen enough of these Super Bowls to know that there are ups and downs, and often times the first half and second half are completely different. Whether they roar out to an early lead or fall into an early hole we know the Patriots won’t blink. Trying to do that as a fan is always challenging no matter how many times we’ve seen the resolve of each Patriots team over and over and over.
5. Win: Did training camp and the 18 games since SB51 even happen? It still seems like yesterday to me and it’s hard to grasp that the Pats are now one game away from Lombardi number six. None of the stupid debates of the last year matter now… not Garoppolo, not Alex Guerrero, not anything Brady, not Belichick or the coordinators… all that matters is winning one more game. Who knows if or when the Patriots will be back in this position. They, and us the fans, must embrace this moment and squeeze every last ounce of stress and joy out of it that we can.

Prediction: Patriots 26, Eagles 25