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Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl 53 vs. Los Angeles Rams

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It’s hard to believe we’re back once again in the Super Bowl. That this Patriots Dynasty thing is still going strong. I’m not sure when I’ll ever be able to wrap my head around it, but for now, I’m just trying to savor every moment.

I took a look back at my Seahawks, Falcons and Eagles Super Bowl gameplans and there is plenty to glean from those and how the games ultimately unfolded. The Patriots’ slow starts, the miraculous plays on both sides and that final key clutch play needed to win it.

It’s hard to really boil things down to their simplest elements needed to win this kind of game. That’s what Bill Belichick excels at, finding just a handful of points to focus on and often when they get out I’m excited to see that I wasn’t too far off with these gameplans I’ve been writing as a permanent feature of the blog since 2014.

How do the Rams stack up to the three most recent Super Bowl matchups? They certainly have an exciting young coach and a collection of new and old talented players needed to win the game. We search for common threads in the Patriots’ Super Bowls, but it has always just boiled down to the final few plays in the final five minutes that decide who wins.

They were down 10 points in the fourth quarter to the Seahawks. They were down 28-3 to the Falcons in the third quarter. They were a fourth down stop away from beating the Eagles last year. What’s clear is these games are a seesaw and the Patriots excel at staying the course no matter how bleak it looks.

With two weeks of buildup there’s been plenty of dissection going on and now it’s time to jump in with my gameplan! Let’s Go!

Offensive Gameplan

If there was a key element of the 2018 Patriots offense that made it stand out, it’s the ground attack led by the Sony Michel and James White. James Develin and Rex Burkhead are also significant pieces but with the way the Pats have run with Michel especially, we’re reminded of the 2004 Corey Dillon team.

This is as balanced of a Patriots team as we’ve ever seen. They will run even when the box is stacked against them, exerting their will on teams in a dominating fashion. That’s remarkable considering who the quarterback for the Patriots still is.

The ground game is everything, whether it’s Michel’s power running or the variety of things they can do with White, the running backs are the key in this one. Either the Pats run and set the tone, or they’ll have to lean on Brady and the passing attack which is still a winnable proposition but a narrower road to victory.

In the last two Super Bowls, the Pats have 1159 total yards of offense. In two games. Two. 1159 yards. But just 217 of those came on the ground. Against the Seahawks in Super Bowl 49 they had just 59 rushing yards. That’s why this Super Bowl might be much different than what we’ve seen in the past three. Those were basically all Tom Brady, but this one doesn’t have to be.

Produce with Michel and it all but assures Julian Edelman has a huge game. Gronk too, who should be ready to leave everything on the field perhaps one last time. If the ground game stalls the Rams can focus on Edelman, while allowing Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh to attack Brady with reckless abandon. And that doesn’t even mention Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler, two slightly lesser known names who could get less blocking attention and thus more of the spotlight.

Wade Phillips is no stranger to facing the Patriots offense, but I’m sure he’d much prefer the 2015 offense, with no discernible ground game to this balanced 2018 squad. No matter what Wade cooks up it won’t matter unless the Rams have an answer for Michel.

The other beautiful thing about this Patriots offense is the mentality that comes with being able to run the ball. This is as physical and athletic offensive line as the Patriots have ever had, and a big part of that, literally, has been Trent Brown. Nothing against Nate Solder but Brown has shifted this offense into something new, something they haven’t had in any recent Super Bowl runs.

They can match the intensity and aggression that starts with Donald and Suh and it’s so reassuring not going into a big game knowing it’s Brady or bust.

I never want to oversimplify it, but this 2018 offense is what it is. If they run the ball they’ll score points and drain the clock. Getting Michel going is almost everything, especially if the Pats want any chance of this not being a last-minute miracle play game like the rest have been.

Defensive Gameplan

Jared Goff and Sean McVay have made the Rams into one of the most formidable offenses in the NFL. With Todd Gurley running like an offensive MVP candidate for most of the year and Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, the Rams are as balanced as the Pats, with a problem-causing scheme that laid waste to much of the NFL this season.

However this is a new experience for the Rams and unless they play as aggressive and fearless as the Eagles did last year, they’ll face an uphill fight against the Patriots. Assuming we get the Patriots defense of late and not the uneven squad that popped up on the road a few times this year.

As I wrote in my matchup piece, I think the first piece to fall is Stephon Gilmore on Woods. Woods is their most effective receiver, the chain mover and he must be removed from the game in key situations.

The Rams will make it hard by using tight splits and bunch formations but the Pats aren’t going to shy away from man coverage now after being one of the most man-heavy teams in the league. It will be up to the corners to sort out the bunches and navigate through traffic. It’s really everything for the secondary. Being physical at the line, especially with Cooks is critical, but this is the kind of offense and gameplan that the Patriots defense is made for. Unless they regress to early season levels, they should be able to delay the Rams’ explosive attack.

Gurley, and C.J. Anderson are the pieces that worry me most and where I think this game will be won or lost. The rushing yardage totals for the two teams should directly correlate to the final score.

Disguise has long been a feature of the Patriots’ defense and it will be a big part of playing Goff. Expect the Pats to wait until the final five second of play clock before revealing anything. That strips Goff of McVay’s help and I think that will sow confusion and ultimately late and bad decisions.

But it all starts with getting to third-and-long by stopping the run.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Physicality

There’s so much to dissect in this game, but ultimately the more physical team is going to win. The Patriots have been superb in the playoffs and have exerted their will over both the Chiefs and Chargers, two very good football teams. I love the Pats offensive line leading the way for the ground game. I love the secondary and their ability to jam at the line with physical man coverage. They have all the pieces and the attitude, they just need to bring it on Sunday.

2. Donald and Suh

These are the two guys that scare me the most because they can destroy a gameplan together. Talib and Peters are prototype man corners, but this isn’t the pass-dependent Patriots offense we’ve seen in recent years. The Rams want to unleash Donald and Suh, and let their corners blanket the receivers. The Pats can’t get into that “Brady throws 50 times” game because the Rams have the pieces the Giants and Eagles had. Don’t let them destroy the game like they didn’t let Michael Bennett destroy Super Bowl 49.

3. Gurley and Anderson

Will Gurley be ineffective a second game in a row? Will fat C.J. Anderson get through the line? There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how effective the Rams ground game can be against a Patriots run defense that has been spectacular in the playoffs. Make Goff throw it a ton, especially on long yardage downs. The best and quickest way to take the Rams out of their comfort zone is to make them one dimensional.

4. 60 Minutes

As much as we all want just one stress-free Super Bowl, the odds seem more likely that we’re in for another roller coaster. At least we know the Pats have been here before. That they won’t blink even if they fall way behind. They must play hard together for 60 minutes, hope to get a bounce or two and that no impossible miracle plays go against them. This is the ninth time we’ve been through this and why should it be any different?

5. Win

The first three Super Bowl wins felt like unexpected gifts. We were all in awe. But then from 2005-2013 we saw them fall short time and time again, each in a new strange variety of disappointment. Yes, we’re spoiled, but there’s a special stress that comes with expectations. Time has been running out for the last dozen years but through the magic of Bill and Tom they’re once again a game away from hoisting the Lombardi. I still feel like it’s all gravy at this point, but what a chance to set the bar even more impossibly high. There are no Super Bowl style points, let’s just get one more.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Rams 17