It all comes down to this as the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks in Glendale, Arizona for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy of Super Bowl 49. Good luck if you’re still looking for tickets for Super Bowl 49!
It’s been a full season of gameplans, and now there’s just one team to focus on. Despite this week’s distractions, the Seahawks pose a strong challenge for the Patriots – one that will test many of their weaknesses.
But with two weeks to prepare, there is no better coach that Bill Belichick and if the Patriots can execute the game plan that Belichick lays out, they’ll have a very strong chance of winning.
Here’s what I think they need to do.
Offensive Gameplan
We can take a look back to the 2012 matchup between these two teams to get a little bit of a sense how they might attack each other. As I laid out last week, the Patriots had plenty of success moving the ball, but their 1-6 performance in the red zone, including an end zone interception, was the difference.
The Seahawks are an excellent defense, but they are not a complex one. As Eric Mangini once said of Brady “if he knows it goes”, and that’s why the Patriots should feel comfortable with how to attack the Seahawks defense.
Executing and matching their physicality will be the challenges, but the Patriots are not a team that is often bullied on either side of the ball. They’ll take some licks and they’ll give some licks.
The 2012 attack was centered heavily on attacking the center of the field, the Pats’ bread and butter, and there’s no reason to think they’ll get away from that.
While some have called Rob Gronkowski the key player of the game, I believe it could be Julian Edelman, especially if he’s able to matchup in the slot against Jeremy Lane.
The physicality of Brandon LaFell on the outside is just what you want against the Seahawks’ corners. He should see plenty of Byron Maxwell. Given Brady’s strength throwing the ball to his left, LaFell could have a chance to shine as well.
A healthy Gronkowski is always an X-factor especially in the red zone. How the Seahawks choose to match Gronkowski will be one of the most interesting points to monitor as the game unfolds.
The Seahawks have given up over 130 yards rushing in each of their two playoff games so there’s good reason to stay balanced with LeGarrette Blount. If Blount gets rolling it could help the Patriots be far more balanced than they’ve been in the last two Super Bowls.
The Patriots must challenge Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas given their injuries. Tight formations that run to Sherman’s side would be a good way to test out his tackling with his injured elbow.
But most important is protecting Tom Brady up the middle. That’s where their gameplans were destroyed in the last two Super Bowls, namely by Justin Tuck. This will be a quick passing attack, so the edges are less of a concern.
Michael Bennett slides inside in the Seahawks nickel package, so that could be a concern. The Pats will know where he is at all times, and perhaps running at him in nickel with Shane Vereen will be something to consider.
The Pats received a boost with news on Wednesday that center Bryan Stork should be ready to go. Stork, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell must play well. There’s no quicker way for things to unravel than if that trio is getting beat early and often.
Defensive Gameplan
This is the best secondary the Patriots have entered a Super Bowl with, at least since 2003. The Seahawks passing attack is fairly easy to decipher and the Pats match up well with them.
Conventional thinking is Darrelle Revis will take Doug Baldwin, while Brandon Browner will take the bigger deep threat in Jermaine Kearse. Kyle Arrington should see Ricardo Lockette in the slot, while Patrick Chung should get the majority of the coverage against tight end Luke Willson.
Of course, the Patriots will not be predictable and these coverages will shift at times, but in the important moments, those will likely be who’s covering who.
The problem for the Patriots will be Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, for a variety of reasons. Lynch has had limited success against the Patriots (averages for 5 career games vs. Pats: 14 carries, 53 yards, 3.79 YPC. Never broken 100 yards), though that doesn’t mean much in a one game situation.
The read option and Russell Wilson’s mobility are two things the Patriots must concern themselves with. This area has been extensively covered this week because it’s obvious.
I believe the best route is to force the ball to Lynch and take away Wilson’s outside scrambles at all costs. Let Wilfork, Siliga and Branch stop Lynch.
Wilson’s bootlegs are another big concern as well so the focus for the edge players to maintain integrity is vital.
Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich must remain disciplined in their pass rush, while Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch must maintain gap discipline. It’s likely Wilfork won’t try to overcommit to his pass rush and instead hold the top of the pocket to contain Wilson.
There are a number of ways the Pats can go to spy Wilson as well, with most thinking Jamie Collins is a good fit for the job, while Dont’a Hightower covers Lynch on passing routes.
Lynch was the third-leading receiver for the Seahawks this year, so Hightower’s work in coverage is critical. Hightower has the size and enough maneuverability that he’s a pretty good matchup.
Trusting that the secondary can take away the quick throws and buy them time for a slow pass rush is critical, especially on third down. If the Pats can’t keep Wilson in the pocket their entire gameplan will start to breakdown as receivers uncover downfield and Wilson scrambles for critical yardage.
Stopping Lynch on straight-forward run plays is only the beginning. Seattle’s misdirection and ability to extend plays must be snuffed out to stop them.
Points of Emphasis
1. Keep Wilson in the Pocket – Whether they spy him with a linebacker or just “mush rush” him, stopping Wilson from making big plays on the ground is a huge priority. No quarterback is better at making plays after things break down, so being patient is key, especially when the initial timing of the play is stopped. If Wilson is forced to stay in the pocket and throw the ball, the Patriots will have taken away a major piece of what makes the Seahawks go. This of course goes hand in hand with…
2. Gang Tackle Lynch – The defensive tackles must wrap and tackle Lynch, because he lives of yards-after-contact. The Patriots have been pretty good at this in the past with Lynch but that will mean little on Sunday. Alan Branch knows firsthand from his time in Seattle what it’s like to see Lynch on a daily basis and his presence should help. If Chandler/Ninkovich/Collins form a triangle trap to contain Wilson, it will be up to the Wilfork/Siliga/Hightower/Chung to hold Lynch in check.
3. Protect Brady Up The Middle – This is the Super Bowl credo. Don’t let the interior rushers throw off the quick-passes. Michael Bennett is certainly one player to be concerned with, but the offensive line will need their best game of the season if the Pats are going to get the job done.
4. 60 Minutes- Everyone one of the five Super Bowls Brady and Belichick have gone to have gone down to the final possession and is there really any reason to think this one would be any different? There’s no question these are the two best teams in football and the one who makes the fewest mistakes and puts together the best game on this particular day
5. Win – The Patriots will feel things out early, testing how the Seahawks want to play them. As Michael Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race for Belichick to see how you want to play them. An early three-and-out or sustained Seahawks drive is not cause for major concern, though a fast start would be nice, and it’s something the Pats have lacked in the last two Super Bowls. What matters most is winning no matter how the ups-and-downs of the games go. To see them raise the Lombardi Trophy once again after all the controversies of not only the last two weeks, but of the last seven years, would truly be something special for Patriots fans.
It all comes down to this.
