Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 vs. Houston Texans

The Patriots will kick off the 2018 season hosting the Houston Texans, a talented team that has run into the New England buzz saw seven straight times. Last year’s three-point defeat was as close as the Texans have been since 2013 and they should enter Gillette Stadium with something to prove and a confidence they can finally win in Foxboro. Had it not been for a last-minute Tom Brady miracle the Texans would’ve pulled the upset last year and should have every reason to think they can make it happen here in 2018.

There’s always such an element of unknown for week one. Often the games are sloppy as no one has really tackled yet, nor is anyone in true game shape. Penalties and special teams play perhaps the biggest role of all.

We are all aware that the Patriots of September are not the Patriots of January and February, even though the reaction will be as if they are. The Pats will likely continue to audition players, use rotations where they might not later in the year and generally be straightforward in their approach as they try to figure out what they’ve actually got this year.

So it’s important not to overreact to the outcome or sloppiness of any of these first few games. Still, it’s an AFC opponent and a win would be a good first step in the conference standings.

Here’s what the Pats need to do to survive Bill O’Brien and the Texans and get the 2018 season rolling.

 

Offensive Gameplan

The offensive gampeplan must start with JJ Watt and JaDeveon Clowney, two disruptive front seven players who can change the game in an instant. They were all over Tom Brady last season, but that was with the Pats still managing Nate Solder and without Marcus Cannon. Now, with Cannon back and Trent Brown ready to go, the Patriots should not have offensive line issues like they did early last year. Of course the Texans front can give anyone issues so winning the battle up front is where it all begins.

We know the Pats are undermanned at wide receiver, that’s why avoiding third-and-longs is critical. That, combined with the new wrinkle of Brown’s massive size up front, and I’d expect the Pats to go into this one hoping to ride Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill. What is not going to work is rolling James White out there in the spread offense right off the bat. It leaves you nowhere to go if you get behind.

Burkhead has shown plenty of flashes, but is he ready to do it for an entire game, or, gasp, an entire season?

The ideal personnel would appear to be a combination of 12 and 22, utilizing Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen as the foundation, with Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett on the outside. Rotate Burkhead and Hill, and sprinkle in some James Develin. If the Pats can lean on these groupings, they can save the 11 package (White, Gronk, Dorsett, Hogan, Patterson) for the gotta-have-it passing situations.

I know if I were the Texans I’d do everything I could to force the Pats into their mult-WR passing offense. Make Brady throw it 50 times. Maybe that’s foolish, but I think we all need to see the Pats passing game tested on third-and-mediums. There’s not only no Edelman but no Danny Amendola. Take away Gronk, force everything underneath to White then unload on him. That’s what the Patriots must prevent by sticking with Burkhead and Hill in the running game.

Defensive Gameplan

Deshaun Watson was better than expected from the pocket last year, but it was outside the pocket that he killed the Pats. So this feels very much like the SB49 gameplan, keep Watson in the pocket. This is an incredibly hard task for the defensive front. They must disrupt without overpursuing or breaking contain. It’s not a game to worry about sacks, rather worry about disciplined defensive play on early downs.

As I wrote this offseason, first down was a big problem for the defense last year but they certainly have better pieces now at this point. Between Adrian Clayborn, Danny Shelton and Dont’a Hightower, the front will be far tougher.

Stephon Gilmore could very well see DeAndre Hopkins full time. That’s Gilmore’s strength and he matches up well with Hopkins. The problem with man coverage against mobile quarterbacks is that it can result in big plays because everyone is focused on their own man, not the quarterback when he decides to break the pocket. So there’s no easy answer, but I know this, the secondary must get off to a better start than last year. For a veteran crew, they were incredibly disappointing out of the gate and that kind of slow start must be avoided.

The focus for me will be the linebackers in space. Can Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts play with the atleticism necessary to contain Watson and force him into poor plays? Or will they have the giant target on their back they had all last season via play action passes and the rest of the trickeration teams like the Eagles busted out with success? This game will be won or lost by them.

The front must control their rush, a maddening thing both to play and to watch and the secondary must contain Hopkins. If those two things happen it’s entirely up to the second-level defenders to snuff out QB scrambles, and short dump offs over the middle. Those are the plays that will define the game.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Keep Watson in Pocket

Easier said than done, Watson still has the arm to throw downfield from the pocket but he’ll be much more erratic than if he’s allowed to get outside the pocket and throw on the run or tuck it and run. Those big plays must be limited especially on third down, where a first down picked up by a scrambling quarterback can be a backbreaker. Disciplined play by Trey Flowers, Clayborn, Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler is a huge key and one they struggled with against the Panthers in preseason.

2. Power Run Game

The Pats’ offense can’t play into the Texans hands by becoming a one-dimensional passing team. That is a problem for numerous reasons, but mainly because the Pats multiple receiver sets are not a strength and the Texans pass rush is a strength of theirs. Nothing would play into Houston’s hands better than if the Pats neglect the run game or can’t be productive with it. A winning Pats effort will see Rex Burkhead with over 100 multi-purpose yards and a couple touchdowns from inside the five-yard-line for Jeremy Hill. Burkhead might be the biggest key player the team has for the first four weeks of the season for his ability to relieve pressure from Brady, White and Gronkowski.

3. Clean Football

It’s hard to expect a clean football game in week one, but the team that makes fewer mistakes is the team that will win. And it’s also important not to get caught up in quick-change plays like turnovers. Again, these are usually games that have little indication on how teams will look at the end of the year, it’s an experimental phase for both New England and Houston and one or two plays will be the difference.

4. Big Plays

One bad sign in last year’s opener was the number of big plays the Patriots allowed including a 58-yard run and a 78-yard catch by Kareem Hunt. Those are the anti-Patriots kind of plays and were an immediate sign that something was off with the 2017 Pats. Hopkins is a game-changer and the Pats have invested too many resources into the secondary for them to get scorched by him or Will Fuller. The pass rush must be muted so it will be on the secondary to not blow any coverages that allow for big game-changing gains.

5. Win

It really doesn’t have to be pretty this week. It’s just about taking that first step and finally getting a sense of who the 2018 Patriots really are. We can all have our theories but until we see them in a real game it’s all conjecture as to what their strengths and weaknesses will be. Against a good up-and-coming team like the Texans who are in the conference, it would be even more satisfying to start the year off with a win, but it doesn’t matter how it looks. How sloppy it is. How many missed tackles. Just win baby, and get this thing rolling.