Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

And just like that another season is upon us! On Thursday night the Patriots will raise their fifth banner (and I’ll be there to see it) as the incredible run continues. I think we’re long past the “just happy to be here” phase and firmly in the “squeeze every last record out of TB and BB before it’s over” mode. It’s amazing how fast it’s all going by yet seems impossibly long ago when the duo won their first together.

Now we’re off on the 2017 season, which will have its own set of challenges, and the first opponent is one who has always scared me a bit. I know that might sound silly — being afraid of Alex Smith!? But in a conference where there really aren’t many contenders to the Pats’ dominance, the Kansas City Chiefs are just the kind of team who can steal a game from New England.

In an oft-fluky first game of the season, the low mistake Chiefs have the playing style and pieces to make this a close game. Let’s face it, no matter who the opponent, the Patriots’ September clashes always seem to be more interesting than expected. And that’s even when they’re playing shitty AFC East teams! Imagine what could happen when they’re playing a well-coached, well-prepared team that play clean football.

It should be a good, competitive game. Yes, the fifth banner will be revealed, but also to be revealed is the Patriots true plans for a dynamic new offense that is dripping with speed, even without Julian Edelman.

Here’s the gameplan for knocking off the Chiefs on opening night.

Offensive Gameplan

Just what do the Patriots have in store for us with Brandin Cooks? That’s what everyone from your trusted Minister of PatsPropaganda to Andy Reid are wondering and we’re all about to find out. But Cooks is far from the only question we don’t yet know the answer to. The others:

• How will the four-headed running back dragon be unleashed?
• Will Phillip Dorsett and his Cooks-like speed make it onto the field?
• Where will Brady look first on third down without boo Edelman?

Those are just a few specific ones. What Josh McDaniels made clear in Do Your Job II was that they’re all about exploiting matchups offensively, so that’s going to be even more of a focus in the gameplans this year. So where to attack:

• WR2 vs. Not Marcus Peters – The dropoff after Peters is significant to Terrence Mitchell. In a perfect world, Cooks is pulling Peters and Berry down the field, leaving Hogan vs. Mitchell and not much help. Amendola in the slot should be a good place to go on third downs too.
• RB vs. LBs – The Patriots running backs are a mismatch for most linebackers and safeties in space. Captain Ron Parker (is he a captain? His name sure warrants it) is a very good, underrated player, but if he gets Gronk responsibility it only makes White, Lewis and Burkhead bigger targets.
• Spread them out – With the lack of depth at corner, another way to expose the Chiefs would be to spread them out. I don’t know if Dorsett is ready to do anything other than run Go routes, but that might be all they need him for. Roll out 4 wide (give Gronk a break) with one of the pass catching backs and attack, attack, attack.

Justin Houston and Dee Ford are concerns on the edge, at least Tamba Hali is still out, while the front three of Bennie Logan (replacing Dontari Poe), Allen Bailey and Chris Jones are stout and a good test for the Develin-Gillislee power set. The Patriots offense can really do it all, so it’s a good chance to try it all and get a sense where everything’s at.

The biggest thing? Be safe with the ball. The Chiefs’ defense led the league in takeaways last year and there’s no quicker way to lose control of a game early in the season than coughing up the ball.

Defensive Gameplan

As excited as I am for the new Cooks-ian offense, I’ve always been a defense guy and I’m pumped to see the personnel and packages that are deployed. Things are so boring and secretive in the preseason from a schematic point of view, but Thursday night we see just how the Patriots somewhat-new-look front looks.

The reason Alex Smith is a good matchup for the Pats defense generally is that he takes what’s there, and the Pats are usually okay letting teams take what’s there. They force continued execution and few teams can execute 10-plus play drives enough to keep up with Brady and the Pats’ offense. So I expect the Chiefs will move the ball and the “bend-don’t-break” to be in full effective. Well, at least the bend part, we’ll see how much they break.

Smith leads the Chiefs in third down rushing conversions over the last few seasons and that such a huge thing to be aware of. I’d expect the defense to rush conservatively with a spy making sure Smith doesn’t tuck it and run when nothing is open.

Travis Kelce is the guy who primarily makes the offense go. In 2015’s playoff game he had six catches for just 23 yards. Expect Patrick Chung to be all over him early and often.

Let’s face it, the Patriots secondary is stacked and matches up well with the Chiefs’ top three receivers of Chris Conley, Tyreek Hill and De’Anthony Thomas. Last year we would’ve expected Logan Ryan on Conley, Malcolm Butler on Hill, but my gut feeling is this year the team will be more content to play sides instead of matchups. Stephon Gilmore is that good.

This will be a great test for the new front four on pass rush situations. I’m most curious to see what the front looks like in third and long, when they need to keep a guy back to watch Smith and must cause disruption with just three of four players. My expectation is that it’s a Wise-Guy-Flowers-Marsh look with Adam Butler also getting some looks. Behind them Hightower and Van Noy will mix up what they do, whether it’s covering or rushing. They’re where the deception and disguise come in.

If the Pats force a turnover or two from Smith it will be an excellent sign. This game will certainly be a great test of their core philosophies and give us a really good sense of what they’ve got.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Care of the Ball – Week 1 is always about fundamentals and nothing is more important than taking care of the ball, especially against the Chiefs. This is why I expect no chances on punt returns (Danny Amendola all the way) and limited snaps/touches for a new guy like Dorsett, where a wrong route could result in an easy pick.
2. Tackle – Again, fundamentals. With limited tackling in training camp now, the tackling early in the season can be spotty. The Patriots defense depends on tackling and if they’re not getting ball carriers down immediately they’re going to be in trouble.
3. Spy Smith on Third Down – Getting off the field on third down is the most critical aspect of defense and nothing is more deflating than when the secondary does its job but the front allows the quarterback to squirt out and run for a first. Hightower and Van Noy should be the guys to have an eye on Smith.
4. Special Teams – I didn’t write a special teams paragraph, but I really should especially this week. The Chiefs have dangerous punt returners whether it’s Hill or Thomas. This is the kind of game that could easily swing on a special teams play, whether it’s a returned kick, muffed punt catch or missed field goal. Special teams must be solid this week.
5. Win – Things had to come together quickly for the Thursday night kickoff opener. It’s a good problem to have and it would be even better to get the first win over an AFC opponent and then have an extended break before the next game in New Orleans a week from Sunday.

 

Final Prediction

Patriots 27, Chiefs 24