Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 at Tennessee Titans

The Patriots visit the latest incarnation of the Patriots castoffs. There was Romeo Crennel’s former-Pats-heavy team in Kansas City, and its later incarnation under Bill O’Brien in Houston. Now franchise-defining Mike Vrabel has Dean Pees, Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis all under GM Jon Robinson who spent 11 years with the Patriots.

So yes, there is a soft spot here for this team. I especially loved Vrabel, Lewis and Butler and their departures are among my most unfavorite. To see them all them playing against the Patriots all at once might be a little much.

The Titans know Tom Brady as well as any team he’s ever faced. They’ve played extensively, both with and against him. There’s no secret to Vrabel and Pees about what they’re dealing with. That applies to their knowledge of Belichick as well — how he’ll want to play the game, what they can expect to see taken away from them, how critical turnovers will be.

The question will be can they execute the 60-minute gameplan it’s going to take?

Here’s the gameplan to make sure they can’t.

Offensive Gameplan

Vrabel and Pees have put together an athletic defense that is very much in line with what Belichick and Crennel were doing in the 2000’s. While Belichick has gotten away from base 3-4 fronts, the Crennel-Pees-Vrabel line still uses them frequently. Like all those Patriots defenses they rely on athletic linebackers to make the plays and with Wesley Woodyard and rookie Jayon Brown the Titans have two good ones. Overall, this is an active front that will cause problems, including Jurrell Casey and Brian Orakpo.

Upon further inspection, Malcolm Butler’s problems in coverage have mostly looked like too much biting on double moves. One thing Butler never was was patient. It worked to his advantage in SB49. But it’s working against him now and he’s got a big target on his back. Logan Ryan slides into the slot like he did with the Pats and should matchup on Julian Edelman on third downs, a key matchup.

A prediction though… Chris Hogan and/or Josh Gordon making downfield catches on Butler. They’re going to go after him and try to use his aggression against him.

At this point I’m fine just resting Gronk and Michel this week and giving them through the late bye to get really healthy. The Pats are in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye, there’s no need to pile on any additional dings on those two. Plus with Rex Burkhead practicing it’s a good sign that Michel won’t have to tote the full load when he does get back. That’s the best news of all if of course, Burkhead can stay on the field.

So why not? Run Cordarrelle Patterson out there at running back again, take some shots to Gordon, lean on Edelman and White when you have to. Just having the full starting offensive line intact would be ample boost.

Defensive Gameplan

What I wanted every game last year? A Dion Lewis-centric gameplan from first to fourth, and I never really got it. Welp, I’ll get it now, courtesy of the Titans, who lean on Lewis to spark them just like the Pats sometimes did. Marcus Mariota has some pocket ability and some running ability but just can’t seem to put it all together. He might hit a long pass, he might make a long run, but he’ll also likely offset it with a turnover or a bad play.

So in this game, it really boils down to Lewis and Derrick Henry. Contain them and everything else should fall into place. Lewis will be the bigger problem of the two, just because of his quickness and ability to make people miss. With their size and physicality, Henry poses less of a question mark. They can match his power, I’m not sure they can match Lewis’ agility.

Overall I feel great about this defense right now. They have key pieces in all the right spots and they are all playing fundamental team football. It’s all pretty much working, but Mariota and Lewis will be a slightly different problem than they’ve faced the last couple weeks.

But given what I’ve seen this season I expect the defense to shut down the Titans offense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Gordon Rising – Against a team that will play some aggressive man coverage it’s key to have big, quick players with giant oven mitt hands like Josh Gordon, who can get open quickly and make contested catches. Edelman’s the same way and those two will have to be in sync with Brady, especially if it’s another cobbled-together ground attack (which I’m totally fine with really!!!!)
2. Athletic Defense – With Hightower still battling a knee injury, maybe he should get the rest treatment too.  The defense must deal with Lewis and Mariota on the ground and if they play like they did against a similar quarterback in Chicago, this game could be closer than it should be.
3. Trey Flowers Game Changer – There’s no reason to think Trey Flowers won’t continue his assault on quarterbacks this weekend and that’s a great feeling to have. Flowers is transforming this defense into one that’s formidable on all levels. I can’t wait to see what he does from week to week.
4. Putting Down Friends – A stress-free game where we can just enjoy watching the now-Titans fail against their former team would be nice. The Pats would have quite a few less Super Bowls if not for the guys on the Tennessee sideline but oh well, they’re going down.
5. Win – A record of 8-2 with seven-in-a-row going into the bye is as impressive a start as any Patriots team outside 2007. It would be hard not to feel good about their position in the league and Super Bowl chances, especially with the looming return of Michel and Burkhead. It’s a little patchwork right now, but that should get better and when it does and we get a fully operation offense, look out.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Titans 10