After a bye week and an exhausting election, I think we’re all ready for Patriots football to be back and it would be hard to ask for a better game than a rematch of Super Bowl 49 against the Seattle Seahawks.
Let’s face it, the competition in the NFL stinks this year. Many teams have regressed and only a couple have risen to new heights. But the Patriots and Seahawks are two well-coached teams that play a physical brand of football. It should be a fantastic game and one of the last/only true tests for this New England team.
Here’s my gameplan, with some help from Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl 49 gameplan.
Offensive Gameplan
Despite the Seahawks missing Michael Bennett, this is one of those strategic matchups that I love watching and, after the fact, studying. Here’s the simple fact — in his two games vs. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks defense Tom Brady has put up 388 (2012) and 320 (SB49) yards passing. The running game, 144 total yards in those two games, was largely ignored. Brady has also throw two picks in both of those games.
There’s no reason to think this weekend will be any different. The Patriots are going to spread the Seahawks out, find the matchups they like, then attack them over and over.
Much of the offense is the same as it was in SB49 — Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are still the key players for the key moments. But it’s the new additions on the Patriots offense that interest me most in this matchup since both Brandon LaFell (four catches, 24 yards, touchdown) and Shane Vereen (11 catches on 12 targets for 64 yards) were key players in Super Bowl.
First, it’s Chris Hogan (19 catches, 391 yards, 20.2 yards-per-catch), who’s adding a vertical element from the outside receiver spot not seen since the days of Randy Moss. The Patriots wanted to focus on attacking horizontally in the Super Bowl, but will the presence of Hogan tempt them to look downfield a little more?
Second, (and let’s just ignore Dion Lewis potentially returning) it’s James White. White has shown good progress this season, but I think this game will tell us a lot about him. Tough, physical matchups have often been when White goes MIA, see last year’s AFC Championship as an example. This is a great chance for White to get a lot of checkdowns and make things happen in space when the Seahawks’ coverage holds downfield. If Lewis does return, he’ll be worked in slowly, but his presence would be a definite boost.
Here’s Greg Bedard’s film study notes from SB49 on the Pats offense.
Overall, the Patriots did an excellent job manufacturing a short-area passing game that was designed to exploit man coverage or Seattle’s foundational man-zone Cover 3 hybrid. A great illustration was Brandon LaFell’s 11-yd touchdown. On that play, a fake handoff behind left guard Dan Connolly’s pull-block to the right froze Wagner for a split second. That, plus the slot receiver’s route to the flat, created the throwing window. These sorts of quick throws negated a Seattle pass rush that featured a lot of stunt concepts.
The Seahawks defense has hold this year, none more apparent that their struggles on third down.
Over the past three weeks — games against Arizona, New Orleans and Buffalo — the Seahawks have allowed 31 of 53 third downs to be converted, a conversion rate of 58.4 percent. Buffalo was 12 of 17 against Seattle on Monday night and had 30 first downs, tied for the seventh-most ever against the Seahawks in the regular season.
And there’s little question they’re a different team on the road than they are at home. It’s been 12 years since they last travelled to New England.
Add it all up — a Seahawks defense on the road without their best pass rusher and some significant issues against a Patriots offense that is well-rested, prepared and clicking? Tom Brady could be sending a frightening message to the rest of the NFL on a national stage.
Defensive Gameplan
The Seahawks have a different feel on offense this year. Maybe it’s been Russell Wilson’s injuries or the lack of Marshawn Lynch, but they’ve become far more reliant on the passing game than they were the last time the Pats saw them. They’ve broken 100 yards rushing just twice this season, and haven’t broken 75 yards in the last five games.
However they play safe with the ball (one turnover in the last five games) and Jimmy Graham is starting to recapture some of the magic that made him one of the most dangerous tight ends in the league while he was in New Orleans. He’s coming off eight catches for 103 yards and two sick one-hand-catch touchdowns. Though the last time Graham faced New England in 2013 he ended with zero catches on six targets.
I touched on Belichick’s keys against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl yesterday, will the priority still be to keep a less-mobile Wilson in the pocket? Or will Graham be the top priority?
In 2013, the Patriots used their best cornerback — Aqib Talib — on Graham. This means a number of options are on the table. Without Jamie Collins, Patrick Chung is usually the man tasked with TE coverage, with some sprinkling of Devin McCourty, though it’s unlikely they’d have McCourty travel with Graham since he’s used in a number of different ways. There’s also the option of using Logan Ryan or Eric Rowe. Both have had their struggles this season, but have matched up with bigger receivers in the past.
It’s my feeling that they’ll start out with one guy following Graham and I’m going to go with Ryan out of the gate. That would leave Malcolm Butler on Doug Baldwin (what a great competitive matchup it will be between those two) and Rowe likely on Jermaine Kearse. We’ll see if Cyrus Jones is out of the doghouse and gets a shot to cover Tyler Lockett, or if it’s Justin Coleman.
Here’s some of Greg Bedard’s notes on the SB49 film study:
Their man-to-man coverage stifled a passing attack that continued to feature a lot of isolation routes out of spread sets. Perhaps Seattle’s objective was to create more horizontal field for Wilson to use, but the Patriots did a good job taking that away with various spy concepts. Dont’a Hightower served in this role, as did Devin McCourty, who was the lurk defender in man-free coverage on third-and-long. Playing McCourty in that role (Duron Harmon filled McCourty’s centerfield position) gave the Patriots more speed with which to combat Wilson. Collective defensive speed was a big focus of New England’s approach; Patrick Chung also played a heavy load as part of a three-safety, three-corner dime package.
Expect a lot of those concepts to pop up again on Sunday.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Stop Graham — Maybe I’m crazy but I think the key focus won’t be containing Wilson, it will be taking Graham away from Wilson. It’s a great chance for Logan Ryan or Eric Rowe to redeem themselves, because if Graham gets going (and the Pats are 24th in TE coverage DVOA), there could be problems. Chung often covers TEs too, but I think his usage in this game will be focused on Wilson and the running game.
2. Keep Wilson in the Pocket — Yeah, you can’t just ignore this one and I still think the Patriots will do their best mush rush and keep Wilson contained. It’s actually a luxury to have such an experienced secondary. They can lean on their coverage a bit. Or let’s just say, the coverage has been better than the pass rush, so selling out to sack Wilson isn’t the way they want to go.
3. Feed Edelman/Gronk — This is the trio that has to get it done against the Seahawks defense. And I’m not going to lie, Edelman needs to make the catches and get down, because I worry about his health in games like this with big hitters, especially ones looking to make up for the Super Bowl. Edelman will have a target on him. Otherwise it’ll be about getting Gronk in favorable matchups, then exploiting them.
4. White Ascending — Most of us prefer to imagine a world where Dion Lewis comes back in 2015 form and James White fades into the background as a spot contributor. But Lewis certainly won’t be in 2015 mode in this one, if he’s even back. This is the kind of game where White can prove he’s more than a fill-in but a true weapon who can deliver tough yards in tough games. That’s the only thing left for him to truly prove to me at this point.
5. Win — Look, this game won’t have a huge impact in the standings either way. It’s out of conference, the Pats have a nice lead in the AFC and AFC East, so the season won’t be made or broken based on a win here. But what a win would do is send a message to the rest of the league and the entire NBC audience that the Patriots are Super Bowl favorites.
Prediction: Patriots 21, Seahawks 17
