Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 at San Francisco 49ers

The Patriots take a much-needed trip to the west coast this weekend to face the 1-8 San Francisco 49ers, and your faithful Minister of PatsPropaganda will be there to cheer them on.

In many ways I think this is just what the team needs, and not just because they’ll get a full dose of Duss cheering. They’re coming off a disappointing loss to a great team, but coming off a bye week where everyone went their separate ways they looked like a team that could use a little time to bond. They’ll leave on Friday and get some extra time together, which will hopefully translate in a similar way to their 2014 trip to San Diego when they traveled straight from a loss to Green Bay.

The 49ers, despite their record, should give the Patriots plenty of problems. Well, with the way the defense has been playing just about any team would give them problems. Still, the Patriots defense is far better than they looked against the Seahawks, and here’s hoping a road trip will help them hit the reset button and start playing like they should. All the media attention that’s been focused on them should certainly help with motivation.

Offensively, the Pats will be more than fine. They likely won’t have Rob Gronkowski, but they’ve never been more prepared to handle a week without Gronk than they are now with Martellus Bennett. Throw in a potential debut of Dion Lewis and there’s plenty of reasons to be excited beyond Tom Brady and Julian Edelman’s first game in their hometown.

What the Pats need to do to get back on track with a win over the 49ers in the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

The one thing I found most interesting about the Patriots gameplan against the Seahawks last week was their dedication to balance. They threw is 32 times, ran it 28. This is extremely telling and not a lot of people are talking about it. We saw last year how one-dimensional the Patriots offense was at the end of the season. A lot of that had to do with losing LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. But Tom Brady took a beating because no one cared to think about stopping the Patriots running attack.

Now, even though their rushing attack ranks 20th in DVOA, they refuse to abandon it. It’s debatable if this is smart or foolish. Yes, you’re forcing teams to respect that you could run on any down, but you’re also taking the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands for nearly half the plays. The x-factor in all this is Dion Lewis, who was equally effective as a runner or pass catcher in seven games last season. If he can do that again,  it should be just what the Pats need, and with the balance they’ve put on film all season, it will only make them more difficult to gameplan for.

So let’s hope that this is the game that Lewis returns, even if it’s for just a handful of plays. The 49ers are 31st against the run in DVOA so this is certainly not the game to abandon the balance they’ve established, if anything it’s time to lean on the running game and make sure Brady makes it out of his hometown without taking a bunch of unnecessary punishment. Of course, if Blount ends up taking too much punishment it could be a major problem for all this balance stuff.

You have to think the 49ers are going to quickly fold if the Patriots offense comes out with a physical domination on the ground right out of the gate. Load up with Blount and Develin and run it down their throat to break their will. This needs to be a quiet and efficient win to get the team back on track.

Defensive Gameplan

I’m pretty comfortable now that the Patriots defense will be okay. Matt Chatham really nailed the problems they’re having in this video, and it’s what my analysis has been all along — the players just aren’t executing. We can go around in circles as to why that is, but when you have Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung making undisciplined mistakes (as Chatham points out), you know they’re in trouble. Their best players must start playing like their best players, not leading the way in the boneheaded mistake parade.

We know the threats that Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde present. So yes, this is a major front seven game. The Pats saw firsthand what Kaepernick could do when he beat them in one of the most exciting games ever in 2012. Add in Chip Kelly’s win over the Pats last season with a similarly under-talented Eagles team and there are plenty of elements here that are a bit scary.

The challenge will be just relaxing and playing. Against Russell Wilson, a mobile quarterback they wanted to contain, the defense often looked hesitant and on their heels. The key this week will be to getting back to just playing football and trying not to think so much. Make a mistake going full tilt, instead of getting caught in the middle of the road like Mr. Miyagi warned against.

The 49ers are primarily a three receiver offense with Torry Smith, Quinton Patten and Jeremy Kerley. Which means if you play them with nickel you’re going to have to stop the run and contain Kaepernick with six in the box. So it’s a good game to try to get Jabaal Sheard out of the doghouse and if he’s not you know those troubles run deep.

Other personnel tweaks to consider: using Barkevious Mingo on passing downs, inserting Cyrus Jones at star to cover Kerley, seeing what Kyle Van Noy can do, and does Logan Ryan get swapped out for Eric Rowe again?

If the Patriots can snag a sizable lead in this one it would be a great chance to get the whole defense involved to try and break them out of their funk. This is the first of three-straight games against bad teams. The only acceptable outcome is a convincing win and especially a newly inspiring performance by the defense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Back to Basics: That’s all this defense really needs. And as much as “Do Your Job” has become a cliche, it’s really quite true here. They’re making so many stupid mental mistakes, trying to do too much, not playing within the system. So let’s get back to basics for the defense. Get off blocks and make plays, and most importantly play within the system and stop trying to replace Jamie Collins by yourself.

2. Roll Blount: You want to make the rest of the league respect your run game? You gotta run all over the teams that everyone has run all over. Although the 49ers gave up just 80 yards last week after getting run over for 810 in the three games before that. We all know what Brady and the offense are capable of, but this isn’t the game to lean on them and make them do the heavy lifting. If Blount can’t get going it won’t be a good sign, but…

3. Dion Lewis Re-Introduction: What I’m most excited about in this one is the chance to see Dion Lewis get his feet wet as they ease him back into action. I’ve been totally on board with easing him back in as slowly as possible, but the time is right to get him a few carries and let him get used to taking full contact again. No need for anything more than 10 touches. But if he breaks a few tackles like he did last year, Pats’ nation will start working themselves into a frenzy imagining the possibilities of a fully operational Patriots offense with him, Gronk, Bennett and all the rest.

4. Get Everyone Involved: Even if this one doesn’t get ugly, it’s a good chance to continue to get everyone involved. I’d love to see the doghouse emptied out, with a clean slate for everyone. We’re at that point in the season where the stretch run is coming.  There won’t be many more chances to see what guys like Mingo, Van Noy, Rowe can do.

5. Win: As always, it’s all that really matters, although I’m starting to think of flipping it from “win” to “don’t get hurt”. The Pats are in pretty good position to take the top seed in the AFC. The only big games (on paper) left are vs. Baltimore on MNF and then at their house of horrors in Denver against the Broncos. I know many of the other games will be close, but realistically, staying healthy for three wins in January/February is all that matters. No one will be overly excited to beat the 49ers but getting past the loss against the Seahawks, hopefully with a strong defensive performance, would be ideal.

 

Prediction: Patriots 35, 49ers 10