The Patriots return home after two weeks high above sea level and two impressive wins that have put them back atop the conversation of Super Bowl contenders. Despite numerous injuries to critical players the Pats have recalibrated and look like their same old dominant selves even without heart and soul players like Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower.
Now the Patriots have just six games left and five of them are inside the AFC East, starting with this weekend’s matchup against the 4-6 Miami Dolphins, whom the Patriots will face twice in the next three weeks. After a 4-2 start the Dolphins have lost four straight, including twice that they’ve given up 40 or more points.
What has the Patriots’ season devolved to? It’s become all about A) staying healthy and B) beating the Steelers in a few weeks. AFC East teams do tend to play the Patriots closer than expected, but if we’re just going off expectations the Patriots shouldn’t lose more than one game the rest of the season.
What the Pats need to do to put an iron grip on their ninth-straight AFC East title in the gameplan.
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Offensive Gameplan
The Patriots’ offense is really clicking right now. Dion Lewis is back to 2015 form and Brandin Cooks has developed into the explosive weapon we’d hoped he’d be. For a team that should be treading water somewhat without Chris Hogan, the Pats have put the hammer down the last two weeks, putting up 74 points on the road after not breaking 30 for four-straight games.
What more do we need to see out of the Patriots? Well, there’s always Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, who have combined for 10.5 sacks. But really it’s not the sacks that scare me all that much. It’s the cheap shots, and that includes from Kiko Alonso. If this one gets ugly I’d do everything possible to protect those with the biggest targets on them, including Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.
Despite some lofty names on the front of their defense, Miami has struggled, ranking 30th overall in DVOA, and 31st in pass defense DVOA. Last week against Oakland’s 32nd-ranked pass defense the Patriots offense looked unstoppable, and the score could’ve been far worse if you flip some of Stephen Gotskowski’s five field goals for touchdowns.
But this Miami team also gave up an astounding 294 rushing yards to the Panthers a couple weeks ago. So the Patriots can pick their pleasure, and with a well-balanced attack, possibly their best ever, the Patriots should have some fun this week.
Defensive Gameplan
The Patriots defense has come a long way from their horrible start to the season, and they’re doing it now with overall solid fundamental play. It’s not flashy, but they’re not breaking and getting turnovers, with five in the last three games. The headline stat though — 44 points allowed in their last four games.
But is the Patriots defense really going to be 11 points-per-game good the rest of the way out? That might be a stretch in Pittsburgh and in the playoffs, but against the Dolphins, Bills and Jets, they just might be. That will set the stage for another strong statistical push by the much-maligned unit.
Miami’s offense is also at the bottom of the league in DVOA, 30th overall, 22nd passing and 31st running. Of course their problems have only gotten worse since trading Jay Ajayi, arguably their best offensive weapon. Still, backup Matt Moore was okay in relief of Jay Cutler last week, who left with a concussion.
Backup quarterbacks have a weird way of doing well against the Patriots for whatever reason. Maybe it’s that the Pats back off and wait for mistakes or maybe it’s just everyone gets up to play the champs. Regardless the Pats do have to worry about Jarvis Landry, who has 67 catches for 567 yards and five touchdowns. Kenny Stills has 40 catches and five touchdowns himself. But big DeVante Parker, who was targeted nine times last weekend might be the most concerning challenge.
Parker had five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown, the best performance of his rookie year against the Pats in 2015. He also had eight catches for 106 yards in Week Two last season.
The good news is Moore is a regular quarterback, which means he doesn’t have then mobility that has vexed the Patriots defense most this season. If New England continues their strong fundamental play, there’s no excuse not to hold Miami to under 20 points.
Five Points of Emphasis
- Waddle vs. Wake: LaAdrian Waddle has done a really good job filling in for Marcus Cannon this season and it looks like his tough streak of edge rushers will continue with Wake. Wake isn’t the same player he once was, but it only takes one play to change a game.
- Tie Up Suh: We all nearly passed out after Suh dove into Brady’s legs at then end of the 2015 regular season. Most times that’s a season-ending injury and those kind of plays always seem to pop up with Suh around. The Patriots interior has been excellent this season but they have to be more than excellent to keep Suh out of Brady’s zip code.
- Pass to Score, Run to Win: It’s my favorite football-ism and one that is especially true this weekend. Miami’s secondary must be exposed but there’s no need to put Brady at extended risk by having him throw too much. That’s where I think Lewis, Burkhead and perhaps even Gillislee come in. Make Suh, Wake at all stop the run all day. It’s not their game and a clear path to victory while keeping critical guys healthy. Let’s just hope it doesn’t come at the expense of a running back’s health, because yes, I say a prayer for Dion Lewis’ ACLs every time he touches the ball.
- Bend Don’t Break: Know it. Love it. The BDB is perfect against teams like Miami, who will strangle themselves if you give them enough rope. That’s what the BDB is, all the rope without the reward of scoring touchdowns. The prime directives of the BDB? No big plays and tackle. Then, if everyone does their job, Miami simply won’t be able to keep scoring pace. It’s not dominant, it’s not exciting, but it works.
- Win: It’s hard to fathom a Patriots team that is rolling and has just trained for two weeks at elevation is going to come home and lay a turd.They’ve had too many sloppy games at home this year including two losses. It’s time to bring the party home and start getting things warmed up for the playoffs.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Dolphins 13
