Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 vs. Oakland Raiders in Mexico City

The Patriots high-in-the-sky two-game road trip continues this weekend, as New England goes from last week’s game against the Broncos at 5000 feet above sea level, to a week of practice in Colorado Springs at 6000 feet above sea level and now on to Mexico City, which is 7000 feet above sea level to face the Raiders.

Before the season this looked like a potential AFC Championship preview, but the Raiders haven’t quite lived up to expectations, losing five of their last seven. The Pats and Raiders are similar teams in that their offenses are good (NE 1st DVOA, OAK 3rd DVOA) and their defenses have been at the other end of the spectrum (NE 30th DVOA, OAK 32nd DVOA). Usually all those things kind of cancel out and what we’re left with is: Tom Brady vs. the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL.

But it isn’t exactly a slam dunk. Oakland is better than their record indicates and have shown good resiliency. Nowhere was that more apparent than against the Chiefs when the Raiders had a miraculous last drive that featured two chances at the end zone with time expired. With the game coming at significant elevation, and with unknown field conditions, there are some x-factors that could play into things.

Simply put, the Patriots cannot afford to let the Raiders hang around in this one, because they can sling it when their backs are against the wall. The young Oakland team will see this game as a huge opportunity for them to make their presence in the AFC and NFL felt after a poor start. If it was in Oakland I’d like the Raiders’ chances more, but an experienced New England team, that has been practicing close to altitude all week should be extremely well-prepared and focused on this game.

What the Pats need to do to get that eighth win of the season and finally descend from the clouds back home in the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

I asked this week if we’re seeing the most balanced Patriots passing attack ever in 2017. Each week they continue to build and, with the addition of Martellus Bennett (albeit that’s he’s pretty hobbled) they continue to explore new dimensions to take their offense. Right now it’s the 3-3-3 attack because they have three each of backs, tight ends and receivers who are all fairly interchangeable. Add in James Develin, a throwback battering ram, and there isn’t a style the Patriots can’t play.

They make you defend every blade of grass (or turf) and defend it hard.

The Raiders secondary has been a problem this year and that’s the most tantalizing matchup but the guy you need to avoid is Khalil Mack, who has just 4.5 sacks but only needs one play to change the game. A good approach will be the same one they had with the Broncos, use the running backs to loosen things up, then go to work downfield.

This could be a week where Phillip Dorsett makes a couple significant plays. Last week he had 49 snaps but just two targets. It feels like it could finally be time for him to show some of his explosive speed. That would follow the evolution of this offense as each week someone new seems to step to the forefront like Rex Burkhead did last week.

At this point we kinda know what the Patriots have and that is an ability to do a little of everything. They don’t really have to lean on any one specific target, they’re fluid and can effortlessly shift personnel but still run any style. Add a fullback but go spread? Yup. Hand off a power run to the electric Dion Lewis? All day. Send blazing-fast receivers downfield? Get back, Raiders!

So it boils down to sprinkling in a little of it all but most of all playing clean until they find what’s working. But the mix of Lewis and Burkhead is what is becoming the tone setter for the offense and that’s where it should all start.

Defensive Gameplan

Despite their flaws, the Patriots defense usually is at their best against passers like Derek Carr. Tight end Jared Cook and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper all present different challenges. And the front is certainly excited to play Marshawn Lynch who seems to bring out the best in everyone with his hard-charging style.

Cook should see a nice dose of Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty, while I’m interested to see if Stephon Gilmore takes Cooper and Malcolm Butler takes Crabtree. The Raiders haven’t broken 100 yards rushing in three weeks and that’s a good place to start for the Patriots’ defense. I’m trusting the run defense more and more, but I still have my concerns about the Raiders abandoning the run and just throwing the ball at the Patriots’ inconsistent secondary.

The Pats’ defense has been aided a lot by how the last couple games have unfolded, not to say they haven’t improved, they have been really sound overall, but overall I still think their pass rush can be neutralized and when their secondary has a brainfart they can be had with big plays. That is Oakland’s best route to getting this one to the fourth quarter with the win still within reach.

I don’t think Oakland would beat the Pats with a balanced, traditional attack. They’d beat them by spreading them out and challenging their pass rush and communication in the secondary. That’s where the Pats’ defense still has something to prove to me and I expect they’ll get a good chance to do it in Mexico.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Lewis & Burkhead: These two are the new Edelmans to the offense. As their runs and catches go, so goes the Patriots’ offense. Lately they’ve been great and the offense has looked largely unstoppable. That must continue so that the rest of the offensive options can be on the table.
2. Get to the Carr: The pass rush getting to Carr and at least getting him off the spot is critical if the Pats are going to control this game. If he gets comfortable and finds a rhythm he will move the ball and score points with his array of receivers who present a number of challenges. If I was the Raiders this is where I’d want to challenge the Pats, spread them out, double Trey Flowers and see if anyone else can get to the quarterback.
3. Control the LOS: The Raiders’ offensive line is a physical group and that must be met with the Pats’ own physicality. If Malcom Brown can return it would be a huge boost for a front seven who must dominate in the trenches to prevent Marshawn Lynch from breaking off some big runs. But perhaps most important is wrapping him up and tackling him because he runs so damn hard. Elandon Roberts and David Harris must not let Lynch break free.
4. Take Your Shot: Alex Smith was throwing all over the Raiders downfield and if he can do it, so can Tom Brady and his weaponry. While it shouldn’t be the main form of attack there should certainly be some shots to keep them honest and to maintain light boxes for the running backs. Again, I think this is a Dorsett big play game.
5. Win: As always what only matters. This should’ve been a good trip for the Pats to bond and set the foundation for another playoff run. Getting out of New England and spending some time together always seems to have a bonding effect. They’ve already gotten off to a great start with their best win of the season so far. They can’t take a step backward now, even with the conditions of playing in Mexico City. This is another good prep game with a Super Bowl-style exhibition feel, usually the Pats deliver under these kind of circumstances. A win over the Raiders would also buy the Pats some head-to-head tie breaker bonuses over the Chiefs.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Raiders 24