This year’s first Patriots-Jets game comes late in the season and with the Jets sitting at the bottom of the AFC East it’s certainly lacking some of the usual flash that this rivalry has. Despite the Jets down season, expect this one to be a battle down to the end. That’s pretty much how they always go, even when the Pats are en route to the top seed in the AFC and the Jets are busting out their golf clubs.
Three of the last eight matchups between these two have gone to overtime, including last year’s second-to-last game of the season which saw the Jets win 26-20. Overall the Patriots have won three of the last five games against the Jets by a total margin of 10 points.
No matter which Jets are on IR, or how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been or how much Revis has declined, the Patriots better be ready to go.
Here’s the gameplan to get it done.
Offensive Gameplan
Once again the Patriots are playing some mind games with Rob Gronkowski’s health, with reports on early Wednesday being that he’d miss another week before he made a full-pads appearance at practice. Obviously the Patriots are near-unstoppable with Gronk but since we’re still in the glow of Dion Lewis’ return, we don’t have to get too greedy yet, and Martellus Bennett certainly makes it easier to get by if Gronk can’t go. We might just have to wait another week before we see the fully operational 2016 offense, assuming no one gets hurt this week (fingers crossed!).
Statistically, the Jets defense is similar to the Patriots — great at stopping the run (Pats 4th, Jets 2nd in DVOA), not so great at stopping the pass (Pats 27th, Jets 30th in DVOA). So it’s safe to say this is probably much more a Dion Lewis/James White kind of a game than a LeGarrette Blount/James Develin one. And those are the kind of games that can be fun, because Brady should be slinging it.
Let’s face it, the Patriots haven’t had this many passing threats in a long time so it’s less about figuring out who’s going to be covering who and more about exploiting the best matchups from play to play. That’s the Patriots offense any way.
The most exciting thing will be to see Lewis’ role expanded a bit more. He’s the true X-factor and though James White won’t be phased out completely, there’s just no comparison between the two when it comes to making would-be tacklers miss. Lewis looked every bit as devastating in his eight touches last week as he did last year before his injury. That’s incredibly promising.
One player to focus on is Leonard Williams. He’s got six sacks on the season and the best overall grade from PFF on the Jets defense. Making sure he doesn’t ruin the gameplan on third downs will be critical.
Otherwise it’s all about spreading them out and letting Brady pick them apart, before bringing in Blount to finish things off.
Defensive Gameplan
The Patriots took some strides last week against the 49ers, mainly with their breakout five sacks. Now they face a Jets offense that certainly has more weaponry but all of it will run through the great unknown that is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz has had his moments against the Patriots and last year he had five touchdowns and no interceptions in two games. If he can somehow find that form again, we all know the Jets can move the ball on the Patriots.
The biggest problem for the Patriots could be Matt Forte though. Even when Jamie Collins was still around, Dont’a Hightower took more coverage responsibility on running backs. But he can be limited if the play extends and Forte can use his speed to get away from Hightower. Perhaps using Patrick Chung or Devin McCourty on Forte makes more sense, especially since the Jets lack a real threat at tight end. Though it’s worth noting Forte is only seeing a few pass targets per game. Stopping him in the run game is the real priority.
This should be a great test to see where the Patriots defense is really at. No, it’s not one of the elite offense of the AFC, but they know how to play the Pats, and without having to “mush rush” a mobile quarterback we’ll get an idea of where the Pats’ pass rush is at. Kyle Van Noy should see more time in sub-packages and could be an x-factor. Or perhaps Jabaal Sheard returns with a huge fire lit under his ass.
The ultimate question that will likely decide this game will be turnovers. Fitzpatrick has 13 interception and seven fumbles. The Patriots defense has forced nine turnovers all season, with just two in their last seven games and none in the last three.
Five Points of Emphasis
1. Get to Fitz: Forcing Fitzpatrick into mistakes will decide whether this is a ball game or not. The Patriots will score enough points to win, but without coughing the ball up, the Jets could keep pace. There was a renewed effort to get after the quarterback last week, with more usage of Chung on blitzes as well as the use of Van Noy. Never letting Fitzpatrick get comfortable is critical.
2. Spread ’em Thin: Even without Gronk, the options on offense are dizzying. If Chris Hogan is back that will help occupy Darrelle Revis even more. Brady will likely throw 45 passes in this one, unless Fitz starts handing out fumbles and interceptions and it becomes more of a run the clock out situation.
3. Score First: Important one on the road, putting the Jets in an early hole will immediately start to limit them. The more they can force the Jets to throw the ball, the better the chance for turnovers.
4. Nobody Get Hurt: We’re getting into the nitty gritty now and we’ve seen plenty of late-season injuries that have altered the playoff outlook (2011’s loss of Andre Carter jumps to mind, as well as Blount last year). It’s impossible to avoid injuries but it’s almost more important than winning at this point, given how the rest of the schedule and the AFC landscape looks.
5. Win: A win would officially elimate the Jets from AFC East contention, which is nice. This is a significant challenge, despite the records and an excellent follow-up test for the defense after getting an easy week with the 49ers. Bill Belichick always says after Thanksgiving is the time to start playing your best football. The time is now.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 18