Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at New York Jets

Is it really already week 12? Yes, we’re after Thanksgiving, when the “real” football starts and the push to the playoffs begins. After a week off the Patriots are back in contention for a bye, a vitally important piece of the Super Bowl run equation. There are just six games left, with three of the next four on the road. That’s where we’ll learn the most about who these Patriots really are.

They kick things off with the 3-7 Jets who will be without rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. The Jets have been hit hard with injuries this year, with running back Bilal Powell ending up on IR. Losing your best running back and young quarterback when you’re in rebuild mode is never a good thing and the Jets have lost four in a row and have put up just 26 total points in their last three games.

Still, no matter how bad the Jets appear on paper they always seem to play their asses off against the Patriots. Last October they put up 400 yards on the Patriots and lost by just a touchdown and that was a team that won just five games. The season finale was a meaningless affair just as this year’s finale will likely be.

But for now the Pats have a lot to prove on the road, and the Jets have the 2nd-best third-down defense in the league. That hits the Pats where they’ve struggled most. Tom Brady and the offense will get a good test. Defensively there aren’t any excuses. They’ve played down to the competition on the road and to do it again this week after getting a break will be unacceptable and another sign that the Pats are sputtering when they usually don’t sputter.

Let’s dive into both sides of the ball and come up with a gameplan that will get the post-Thanksgiving train rolling!

Offensive Gameplan

There’s no secret about the Patriots offense as I see it. You can spend your time debating where Brady’s decline is at, but it’s the running game that is the true key to things this year. If Sony Michel is back to the form we saw in October, especially his 106-yard game against the Chiefs, the Patriots will look like their offensive struggles are behind them. When they’ve put up 100 yards rushing the Pats are 5-0, and notably, Brady has looked fine.

If Rex Burkhead is activated then we’re really talking about a Patriots offense with potential. For all those who watched the Rams-Chiefs 100-point affair I see no reason the Pats couldn’t keep up with either, but they need Michel and/or Burkhead. The “wing it with White and Edelman” isn’t going to get the Pats to the Super Bowl.

Gronk is expected back, and that’s another great boost, as will be Shaq Mason‘s return. Will this be one of those major bye week healthy resets we all want? Or will the offense still sputter as everyone gets back on the same page?

The Jets are giving up 25.4 points per game, but again, they always play up to the Pats’ level so in many ways this is a perfect first post-bye challenge. They won’t get much credit if they stomp New York, but it would be a needed win and a confidence-inspiring victory to get back on track. The Titans game has lingered far too long.

Defensive Gameplan

After taking last week to dive into the defense a bit more I’m flummoxed by this unit. When they’re on I’ve been really excited by how good they look. But when they’re off it leaves me wondering if we’re staring over a cliff of a defensive reset. No matter what happens this offseason, McCourty-Chung-Harmon-Hightower defense is no longer ascending and the page will turn to Gilmore-Bentley-Flowers (hopefully) but there are plenty of holes to fill.

There were no awards for the defense against the Bills last month. They allowed just six points but no one cared. Same goes for this week. They’ll get no credit only criticism against a team like the Jets, regardless of how well the Jets actually play.

So what do we want to see from the Pats’ defense? Control the line of scrimmage. Something that has not happened enough this year. Interior tackles have been inconsistent and often pushed around, the edge play is up and down depending on where the game is being played. My fundamental belief is that defensive football starts up front and that’s where the Pats need to be better. When they’re at their best they’re playing at or behind the line of scrimmage. That sure didn’t happen in Tennessee.

As for the secondary, their inconsistency is even more maddening, though I connect a lot of their struggles to the guys up front. Still, they are the veteran leaders and they are coming down to their final runs in a Patriots uniform. Now is the time for guys like McCourty-Chung-Harmon to get back to the level they’ve played at for most of the last four seasons. You’d also expect Stephon Gilmore to have no problems with Quincy Enunwa or Robby Anderson. Gilmore needs a bounce-back game, but like the rest of the defense, there will be minimal credit for any performance in this game.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Reset – Let’s just get everyone — offense, defense, special teams — back on the same page in this game and have a solid overall effort. There were too many breakdowns against the Titans and despite the Jets’ record, winning in the Meadowlands is always a nice boost for the season.
2. Run – Get back to the running game, especially with you can rotate Michel and Burkhead. That’s the best version of this Patriots offense. The Jets are 17th in run defense DVOA. If this is a balanced attack from the Patriots, they’ll look like a contender again.
3. Ravage – Where will I be focused on every defensive possession? Right in the middle, starting with Brown and Guy. As they and the defensive ends go, so go the rest of the defense. If they’re winning everything else will be so easy. If they’re not I’ll have real concerns about the heart of the defense now and moving forward.
4. Field Position –  Keep an eye on field position, a growing area of concern in recent weeks as the kickoff and punt teams have been sub-par. It’s a sneaky place the Pats have killed themselves and one that could get them sent home in the playoffs if they don’t fix it.
5. Win – There are two big games coming down the pike, especially at Pittsburgh, but this game is the perfect warmup to get the season back on track. A convincing win on the road will be confidence inspiring as they return home to face the Vikings in a solid test.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 10